Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 One constant this winter is we screw everything up by just a little. Until that changes no real reason to assume we won't keep doing so. It's sort of the opposite of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 you can't make this stuff up Fd.JPG meh... still has a good 5 days to trend snowier to 12-18"+ for the city that shall not be named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 you can't make this stuff up Fd.JPG Seems light, I had them at 12-15" over the next 6-7 days. I am not sure they get out of bed anymore with something under 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The trailing vort digs kinda like the blizzard.. wrapping up just off the coast at 180. It may end up meandering again but you know that's not going to happen in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 All that is needed for me to win this run of model bingo is for highz to post how great it looks at 240 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 At least we're still out 5 days. We didn't get the north trend until inside of 4 days last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 At least we're still out 5 days. We didn't get the north trend until inside of 4 days last time. We can ride the GGEM/UKIE till they too begin their north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 At least we're still out 5 days. We didn't get the north trend until inside of 4 days last time. Euro was North for a while early last week...it went south Wed and Thursday before it shifted North again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 At least we're still out 5 days. We didn't get the north trend until inside of 4 days last time.Congrats Montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We can ride the GGEM/UKIE till they too begin their north trend I'm not riding anything. Just casually observe for the next 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro was North for a while early last week...it went south Wed and Thursday before it shifted North againThursday we should all be getting giddy before the Friday gut punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Chasing the gold at the end of the rainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Is there any meteorological reason why these storms keep hitting the same areas over and over again with such stunning precision? I keep hearing about seasonal trends or atmospheric memory and noticing them but what's the science behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Is there any meteorological reason why these storms keep hitting the same areas over and over again with such stunning precision? I keep hearing about seasonal trends or atmospheric memory and noticing them but what's the science behind it? I don't have any scientific data behind it but there are clearly seasonal trends in many seasons. You see it in winter and with hurricane season in particular. I assume it's mostly because patterns become somewhat dominant either for a long period or return after a break. There might be differences within the pattern/s but you often end up with the rails for the train being more or less similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 2nd s/w eventually digs closes off, off the SE coast. Touches off a big Ocean LP 990mb. GFS & EURO showing how these two s/w's so close to each other (or just the right distance apart) are ruining our chances. GFS is def leading the way. Example is the Thursday "non event".. EURO had that s/w blowing up into a big NE storm, GFS consistently showing basically a front with a weak wave. EURO jumped toward that in today's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The good news is Ji's favorite model (JMA) is a big hit. So GGEM/UK/JMA against GFS/EURO, we are going to get rocked. Until Thursday's runs suck on all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Is there any meteorological reason why these storms keep hitting the same areas over and over again with such stunning precision? I keep hearing about seasonal trends or atmospheric memory and noticing them but what's the science behind it? I don't have any scientific data behind it but there are clearly seasonal trends in many seasons. You see it in winter and with hurricane season in particular. I assume it's mostly because patterns become somewhat dominant either for a long period or return after a break. There might be differences within the pattern/s but you often end up with the rails for the train being more or less similar. Great response. I agree, patterns tend to establish themselves and become hard to break down. Last year it was a favorable one, this year we have missed every pattern set up.. they have all been against us. No big help from NAO or AO.. the PNA has been a help to keep us getting cold shots, but we are screwed without breaks in a fast flow.. Otherwise you have to get a perfect set up.. and we know how often that happens! NOT MUCH! So I think we keep looking for the variables that buck the trend. Like a 50/50 low. NAO going negative, something to stop this madness... and it never shows up.. and so the beat goes on, and soon will stop.. winter is running out of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro 240+ extrapolation ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 the only real hope is that, at the end of the winter, before the pattern breaks, everything lines up so we get one storm, however big, for one big bang. In past cold winters in the 70's it has occurred, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Great response. I agree, patterns tend to establish themselves and become hard to break down. Last year it was a favorable one, this year we have missed every pattern set up.. they have all been against us. No big help from NAO or AO.. the PNA has been a help to keep us getting cold shots, but we are screwed without breaks in a fast flow.. Otherwise you have to get a perfect set up.. and we know how often that happens! NOT MUCH! So I think we keep looking for the variables that buck the trend. Like a 50/50 low. NAO going negative, something to stop this madness... and it never shows up.. and so the beat goes on, and soon will stop.. winter is running out of time! I think there is something to the idea if vague. I don't think a coastal in September necessarily tells you much about January or something like that but once you've been thru a chunk you often get an idea. It's the same basic thought behind analog forecasting and knowing which areas tend to see more snow in weak ninos etc. It's not necessarily the number one guide though perhaps.. 09/10 flipped hard and fast after the second blizzard despite continued blocking periods beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12Z Euro Low passes right over usVery deflating after the uk and ggem kept it south. I've noticed most times the uk and ec are close. Will wait to see the euro ens to see if maybe it was just a fluke op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Last year got into the groove in Jan and stuck basically the same for 3 months. Over time the bullseye moved around. Everyone from sne-ma-se did pretty well overall. The current pattern is really only a week or so old. If the general pattern holds for say a month+, I highly doubt it's a constant barrage in the NE. I could see suppression becoming an issue up north if progs are right with lobes of the pv dropping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Both GEFS and Candian ensemble means look more like the CMC op than the GFS to me. It's at times like this that I wish more sites showed the combined North American ensemble mean. According to model verification scores, it's one of the best tools we have at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 correction noted.. LOL this is like exactly what they were showing a week ago. I'm not going to feel safe until they're showing this at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Should see twitter and facebook light up soon as to how there is no way the low cuts into a 1038 hp. Yes...people are so focused on the surface and kind of ignoring the fact that the upper level pattern isn't very good.....when you have a sh-itty pattern you need more than a transient surface high to make a storm work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 there's your new pattern psuhoffman....just what we had yesterday come spring if we had no decent events then you were right. I'm letting it play out first. Worse years then this had a nice storm after this point. Also I'd rather not be in the bullseye every run at this range. There is still plenty of guidance saying there is potential. We all get your point and that in your opinion it's over but I'm still going to track each event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 come spring if we had no decent events then you were right. I'm letting it play out first. Worse years then this had a nice storm after this point. Also I'd rather not be in the bullseye every run at this range. There is still plenty of guidance saying there is potential. We all get your point and that in your opinion it's over but I'm still going to track each event. it wouldn't matter one iota if you were in the bullseye in the beginning, the pattern says no. One year all we got was ice,pattern said no!! But do what you want!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Both GEFS and Candian ensemble means look more like the CMC op than the GFS to me. It's at times like this that I wish more sites showed the combined North American ensemble mean. According to model verification scores, it's one of the best tools we have at this range. yes...GEFS look better than the OP and Can ENS worse than the OP but still ok....I'm kind of ignoring the Canadian for now...this past weekend It still had a low off Myrtle Beach after the GFS/EURO had already shifted way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 btw at the end of the winter, the nws grades its forecast and explains what happened during the winter, for example in 1994 after the ice storms , in the wash post, they explained why we got ice instead of snow. They do it every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 come spring if we had no decent events then you were right. I'm letting it play out first. Worse years then this had a nice storm after this point. Also I'd rather not be in the bullseye every run at this range. There is still plenty of guidance saying there is potential. We all get your point and that in your opinion it's over but I'm still going to track each event. to be clear, since I'm no met and can only go on history and what meteo I've learned over the years, I am not saying there is no chance for us to score; nobody can make that edict at this point in the game I am, however, as skeptical as I've ever been in a winter for something to work (which I would define as an event of 4"+) but if anybody thinks I don't want it to snow to justify my skepticism so I can run around at the end of winter saying "I was right", that person would be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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