Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 LOL this is like exactly what they were showing a week ago. I'm not going to feel safe until they're showing this at 72 hours. upper teens Sunday afternoon as we are getting raked. Sounds realistic, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 upper teens Sunday afternoon as we are getting raked. Sounds realistic, right? Man........I really want that. Just give me 3-6 inches of powder with temps in the teens and I'll happily punt the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not an h5 plot you see very often. 504 heights and closed ull/pv right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 To be fair, this setup the models are showing a HP in perfect position. This last storm we all kind of quietly ignored the fact that there wasn't much stopping the vorticity from running NW of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Bob, you know what is a little interesting, aside from the fact that we are analyzing a 10+ day GFS run, but the GFS has shown a similar event occurring in that time range now for a few runs. Look at the 6z run @ 276-288 hours....Obviously we wouldn't take it literal, but it could mean that the LR pattern could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just for kicks....This is the last 4 runs of the GFS in the similar time frame in the uber-time range...Don't kill me I understand it's far out, just showing it for fun 18z GFS yesterday: 00z GFS last night: 6z GFS this morning 12z GFS today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Bob, you know what is a little interesting, aside from the fact that we are analyzing a 10+ day GFS run, but the GFS has shown a similar event occurring in that time range now for a few runs. Look at the 6z run @ 276-288 hours....Obviously we wouldn't take it literal, but it could mean that the LR pattern could be fun. Ensembles like the amped +pna pattern for the foreseeable future. We have no idea how any ind event may or may not happen. I would prefer the trough axis further west. Ens means would imply more chances for things to pass north than south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd IN THE EAST...WITH THE INITIAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST DAY3...SNOW IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORMDEPARTS BEYOND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGHAND SFC FRONTAL WAVE...SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINSTO UPPER MS VALLEY SAT TO THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND THEN THE CENTRALAPPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC LATE SUN TO MON. BEYOND THAT THEPOTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MON-TUE SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEWENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE PERSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYS 3-7 IN NEWYORK/NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN IN FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Canadian is mod/hvy QPF all snow....with that extended ending...at least 6" When has the GGEM and UKIE ever been right for us in the extended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ensembles like the amped +pna pattern for the foreseeable future. We have no idea how any ind event may or may not happen. I would prefer the trough axis further west. Ens means would imply more chances for things to pass north than south. Yeah the +PNA seems to be the theme in the 10+ day, but I feel like we haven't seen a stout +PNA with ridging across the pole like the GEFS/EPS is showing all winter. Just look at what the GEFS was advertising for the next 5 days on it's Jan 24th run and compare it to what is actually going to verify. If we had and or get a great +PNA then we would have seen more snow and will see snow, but still don't buy it yet. I know you guys have nickeled and dimed your way to a nice January, hopefully that at least continues for Feb. If the Jan24th run would have verified I would suspect the system on Thursday/Friday would have been more favorable for all of us. Jan 24th run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a5d&runtime=2015012412&fh=360&xpos=0&ypos=136 Feb 3rd run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a5d&runtime=2015020306&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 When has the GGEM and UKIE ever been right for us in the extended? What if the EURO supports them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 When has the GGEM and UKIE ever been right for us in the extended? Apparently the UKIE has been pretty good. I believe it was always showing north and warm for yesterday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yeah the +PNA seems to be the theme in the 10+ day, but I feel like we haven't seen a stout +PNA with ridging across the pole like the GEFS/EPS is showing all winter. Just look at what the GEFS was advertising for the next 5 days on it's Jan 24th run and compare it to what is actually going to verify. If we had and or get a great +PNA then we would have seen more snow and will see snow, but still don't buy it yet. I know you guys have nickeled and dimed your way to a nice January, hopefully that at least continues for Feb. If the Jan24th run would have verified I would suspect the system on Thursday/Friday would have been more favorable for all of us. Jan 24th run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a5d&runtime=2015012412&fh=360&xpos=0&ypos=136 Feb 3rd run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a5d&runtime=2015020306&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=121 I really don't have many thoughts beyond 5 days anymore. While the pna ridge has pretty much total support, that doesn't mean easy for anybody south of nyc. Shortwave spacing is tight. Can't really look beyond the one at the plate and the one on deck. Just have to pray that any one dropping down can pass south of your yard's latitude. There could be transient blocking setup by any big storm that moves through the maritimes. Maybe there are enough to punch the nao in the face enough times to concede but I really doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 UKMET seems good but the public offerings are weak. It does score well. I've yet to see that the GGEM is way better than it used to be. It seems to usually be wrong for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 In retrospect, we needed the thaw to reshuffle the deck. No thaw, and it's the same old pattern. I'm thinking BWI stays single digits for snow this year. Change the pattern, and it's another story. But we are running out of time for that. March fluke? I see that as our only shot. But if it ain't gunna' snow, I see no reason to pay Constellation Energy all that money to warm my cold, dry house. The pattern has changed plenty for the one that dominated much of January. We went from a -EPO +NAO dominated pattern to a +PNA neutral NAO one. The former is a cold pattern but with an awful storm track. The pattern we are in now is not perfect but its certainly one with potential and we have had many snow events in such a pattern. Its not a bad setup. It looks stable for the forseeable future and I am willing to let it play out before giving up. Just because we have not seen a big snow in the first part of this new pattern does not mean we wont see snow if given several more opportunities before it breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 UKMET seems good but the public offerings are weak. It does score well. I've yet to see that the GGEM is way better than it used to be. It seems to usually be wrong for us. All I can see is the 144 H5 and slp on the UKMET but darn it looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 When has the GGEM and UKIE ever been right for us in the extended? 2/12/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 UKMET seems good but the public offerings are weak. It does score well. I've yet to see that the GGEM is way better than it used to be. It seems to usually be wrong for us. Saw the scores posted for the UKMET after the last storm, and it has been right near the top recently among the models. The GGEM seemed to be the last model to catch on to the northern shift on last weekend's storm, so agreed that it still stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What if the EURO supports them? It won't. I'm confident of that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It won't. I'm confident of that much. Is this based on your viewing of the 12z run or just guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Close to believable.. maybe shift everything north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 euro - next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 sub 1k over indianapolis. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 the trailing vort doesn't catch up in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12Z Euro Low passes right over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 euro - next sucky version of the last event. still moving around tho... eh. i'm mostly out on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The pattern has changed plenty for the one that dominated much of January. We went from a -EPO +NAO dominated pattern to a +PNA neutral NAO one. The former is a cold pattern but with an awful storm track. The pattern we are in now is not perfect but its certainly one with potential and we have had many snow events in such a pattern. Its not a bad setup. It looks stable for the forseeable future and I am willing to let it play out before giving up. Just because we have not seen a big snow in the first part of this new pattern does not mean we wont see snow if given several more opportunities before it breaks down. 12Z Euro Low passes right over us there's your new pattern psuhoffman....just what we had yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Should see twitter and facebook light up soon as to how there is no way the low cuts into a 1038 hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It won't. I'm confident of that much. Is this based on your viewing of the 12z run or just guessing? guess.... euro - next ....and yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 you can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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