Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Unfortunately 10" in DCA is pretty much its 25 year median, so single-digit seasons aren't at all unusual.Thanks FoZZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 oh it probably will Bob, but that doesn't mean it will snow on us all anyone has to do is to run a loop of today's 12z NAM and GFS to see how it looks when it just can't or won't snow in our back yard and I'm speaking wrt the 2/5-2/6 thingy The 2/5-6 was never really modeled to be much. We read between some lines hoping for the right changes. We'll see where the gfs goes but there's definitely an improvement at h5. Better confluence and hp to the north than 6z early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Mitch waving the white flag? Noooooooo. I'm not buying it. We fight until the end! Hopefully the Hizenberg positive karma for today's Euro overcomes...because model snows make us feel good for 15 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just to make sure I am looking at the right time period. what time period are we looking at? Early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just to make sure I am looking at the right time period. what time period are we looking at? Early next week? Yes. Biblical storm, somewhere in Sunday - Wednesday (or all four days!) timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS has rain on Sunday at BWI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS has rain on Sunday at BWI lol The next vort after that takes a little better trajectory, but that's way out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 That kicker is doing no one any favors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yes. Biblical storm, somewhere in Sunday - Wednesday (or all four days!) timeframe.My thinking id will make the book of "40 and drizzle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Guess we should focus our attention in the SW at 189 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Second s/w has no chance to develop a surface reflection since it's too close to the first one (takes the dynamics). The first s/w is unable to dig because of the second s/w on its heels, but the Eastern Canadian Vortex did move much more SE vs 6z which allowed for a strong High/confluence to build in underneath. You would think with that look GFS would transfer the low SE off the coast (like the EURO), path of least resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It is a hard pattern to give up in that's for sure. I don't feel that strongly one way or another but have also noted a sub 10" winter at DCA seems to make sense at this point. I do certainly doubt a repeat of last year but I wouldn't be shocked to see our best storm of the winter ahead either. Not very helpful thoughts.. Long way of saying I don't know but at this point the seasonal trend might matter. Yes, a sub-10" DCA winter "feels" right, right now. But, you're right to be cautious...of course no one really knows exactly what's going to happen in the next 6 weeks. Again, in 5 out of the past 10 seasons, the DC area's biggest snowstorm came after February 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 90% of the false hopes this winbter have started because of the euro showing something in the mid-range that never work out; it started with the Thanksgiving storm really time to discount the euro >48 hours completely and 90% of our angst will resolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 HUGE ridge out west Days 9-10 on the 12z GFS.... but nothing to show for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 UKIE keeps hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z GGEM at 144 looks intriguing... going to have to wait for the 132 panel though - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yes, a sub-10" DCA winter "feels" right, right now. But, you're right to be cautious...of course no one really knows exactly what's going to happen in the next 6 weeks. Again, in 5 out of the past 10 seasons, the DC area's biggest snowstorm came after February 20th. i don't think it feels right at all. given how well we've done with cold temps this season, we are doing really poorly in the snow department. maybe this is an anomaly winter, just like 09/10. i can't remember us seeing so little snow in a season where for the bulk of the prime season it's been chilly and at times quite cold. just can't get those northern vorts to dig enough when it counts. i know one thing, that next 60 degree day is going to feel tropical compared to what we've had since november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GGEM is a nice hit... CAD locked in... 1040 H in perfect position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Whoa at the UKIE, that is a great setup, Ukie has had the hot hand FWIW, looks like GGEM brings some light snow for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 How does precip look on the GEM Yoda? I'm excited for the EURO now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Canadian is mod/hvy QPF all snow....with that extended ending...at least 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 How does precip look on the GEM Yoda? I'm excited for the EURO now Didn't the EURO look good at 00z? I thought it was like 10-12" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Canadian is mod/hvy QPF all snow....with that extended ending...at least 6" even though the track of the lead vort on the gfs was shy of what we need, there was fairly big change in the favorable direction @ h5 north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 How does precip look on the GEM Yoda? I'm excited for the EURO now 0.75" for DCA/IAD, a little less to the north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Didn't the EURO look good at 00z? I thought it was like 10-12" for the area.It actually showed 18-21" for us through next Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GGEM & UKMET do what the GFS should've done. Transfer that LP to our SE after trying to run up into the strong HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 0.75" for DCA/IAD, a little less to the north and west... Very nice, the models are a bit all over the place with regards to the timing of the shortwave. There's kind of a race between letting the High Build in following the ULL in SE Canada and the shortwave that forms the storm. GFS kind of rushes the s/w which is why it is warm south of 40N...The Ukie looks like the optimal scenario to me, that HP is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Main event is Sunday from mid morning to mid evening...snows all day monday, but just super light stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Does the Ukie come out with precip maps? Or not until later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Main event is Sunday from mid morning to mid evening...snows all day monday, but just super light stuff... LOL this is like exactly what they were showing a week ago. I'm not going to feel safe until they're showing this at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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