Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We still get some decent snow/mix, even here in DC...NW burbs probably get 4"+ from this run....it is such a tight, mixy rain/snow line mess....Can this thing come south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Monster high though. Can only go so north. Not a bad run all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Monster high though. Can only go so north. Not a bad run all things considered It's probably 6"+ for you.... EDIT - it keeps snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 If that high is real..this is our best shot. There is room for south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's probably 6"+ for you.... EDIT - it keeps snowing We need it 100 mi south so PA dosent steal heavy snow from onset batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If that high is real..this is our best shot. There is room for south It snows/mixes for 2 straight days..that's realistic right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It snows/mixes for 2 straight days..that's realistic right? Is this the cutoff low that the models have been advertising we are talking about? Or a different system entirely? And if it is different, its Sunday into Monday, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We need it 100 mi south so PA dosent steal heavy snow from onset batch you get 1"+ QPF....which averages to 0.02"/hr over the duration of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 It snows/mixes for 2 straight days..that's realistic right? Sure. About as realistic as the wizards early season nba domination continuing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Is this the cutoff low that the models have been advertising we are talking about? Or a different system entirely? And if it is different, its Sunday into Monday, yes? it never really cuts off...it's just a super super deep trough....the base of the trough is in Havana.....a piece of energy catches up and phases with the frontrunner...There is almost no way the euro is handling it properly.....we need a miller A stat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The only thing this run told me is the mw low is still too close for comfort. Margin of error remains zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 00z Euro ensembles pretty much run the gamut... there are some good solutions for us -- i counted at least 15 good ones... MSLP is all over the place, there is no set pattern as of yet... still a lot to sort out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The only thing this run told me is the mw low is still too close for comfort. Margin of error remains zero. There are several shortwaves involved in this storm evolution in a steep trough. The entire evolution will probably be a mystery until we are inside 72 hour lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 6z GFS ens have a neverending +PNA. Think cold is going to be the theme for the next 2 weeks at least, whether we get snow is a whole other issue. I could imagine the country seeing a massive storm once that ridge breaks down, right in time for the cold to vanish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 6z GFS ens have a neverending +PNA. Think cold is going to be the theme for the next 2 weeks at least, whether we get snow is a whole other issue. I could imagine the country seeing a massive storm once that ridge breaks down, right in time for the cold to vanish hopefully it warms sooner than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Damn Mitch you're never this negative, the winter gods have created a monster, sad . The winter takes many lives....we must fight on. Our general Zwyts will take us to the promise land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Damn Mitch you're never this negative, the winter gods have created a monster, sad . The winter takes many lives....we must fight on. Our general Zwyts will take us to the promise land. In retrospect, we needed the thaw to reshuffle the deck. No thaw, and it's the same old pattern. I'm thinking BWI stays single digits for snow this year. Change the pattern, and it's another story. But we are running out of time for that. March fluke? I see that as our only shot. But if it ain't gunna' snow, I see no reason to pay Constellation Energy all that money to warm my cold, dry house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 In retrospect, we needed the thaw to reshuffle the deck. No thaw, and it's the same old pattern. I'm thinking BWI stays single digits for snow this year. Change the pattern, and it's another story. But we are running out of time for that. March fluke? I see that as our only shot. But if it ain't gunna' snow, I see no reason to pay Constellation Energy all that money to warm my cold, dry house. Why does it take a thaw to get a pattern shift? I don't see the scientific basis.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why does it take a thaw to get a pattern shift? I don't see the scientific basis.... read more and watch......and it doesn't hurt to live over 50 years in the same place to see how it often works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Mitch, I sometimes get that weird feeling that the models are going to go crazy, and today is that day. I have a feeling the EURO is going to go HAM on us today with a 1-2 ft event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Mitch, I sometimes get that weird feeling that the models are going to go crazy, and today is that day. I have a feeling the EURO is going to go HAM on us today with a 1-2 ft event. You poor bastard. Your never ending optimism is a curse and a blessing. Godspeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Mitch, I sometimes get that weird feeling that the models are going to go crazy, and today is that day. I have a feeling the EURO is going to go HAM on us today with a 1-2 ft event. I'm not sure that would do much to add any confidence to the period. Euro ens ticked notably NW with both the lead low and hp to the n. That trend needs to stop. We have no room as it is. Relying on some convoluted closed off follow up is a recipe for nothing here the majority of the time. If we whiff the lead low then the proverbial fork is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm not sure that would do much to add any confidence to the period. Euro ens ticked notably NW with both the lead low and hp to the n. That trend needs to stop. We have no room as it is. Relying on some convoluted closed off follow up is a recipe for nothing here the majority of the time. If we whiff the lead low then the proverbial fork is on the table. I'm so honestly confused...what "storm"/period are we talking about again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm so honestly confused...what "storm"/period are we talking about again? Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm so honestly confused...what "storm"/period are we talking about again? The mon-wed period next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I mostly agree with Mitch but it's hard to ever count us out since we don't need much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Seasonal trends have been a death knell for the MA. I see no reason for optimism on the Sunday/Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I mostly agree with Mitch but it's hard to ever count us out since we don't need much. You would think with the +pna lasting 2 weeks or longer something would accidentally pass underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 You would think with the +pna lasting 2 weeks or longer something would accidentally pass underneath us. It is a hard pattern to give up in that's for sure. I don't feel that strongly one way or another but have also noted a sub 10" winter at DCA seems to make sense at this point. I do certainly doubt a repeat of last year but I wouldn't be shocked to see our best storm of the winter ahead either. Not very helpful thoughts.. Long way of saying I don't know but at this point the seasonal trend might matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 You would think with the +pna lasting 2 weeks or longer something would accidentally pass underneath us. oh it probably will Bob, but that doesn't mean it will snow on us all anyone has to do is to run a loop of today's 12z NAM and GFS to see how it looks when it just can't or won't snow in our back yard and I'm speaking wrt the 2/5-2/6 thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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