mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I went to SV model analogs to see if there were any clues and oddly all the analogs are warm. GFS below euro almost the same. Odd. "oddly"? more like predictably lol this winter has been like watching a train wreck, but we're on the train quite frustrating to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I went to SV model analogs to see if there were any clues and oddly all the analogs are warm. GFS below euro almost the same. Odd. Probably a good reason to look skeptically at what the Euro ensemble is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Probably a good reason to look skeptically at what the Euro ensemble is suggesting. yeah, I just looked at the JMA and NAVGEM, as they seem to also have a cut-off to our south, and they too are warmish apparently, by sitting to our south for so long, the u/l storm just pumps the warm air north until it overwhelms the cold air, which is always tentative in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 "oddly"? more like predictably lol this winter has been like watching a train wreck, but we're on the train quite frustrating to say the least I'm not even completely sure what it's showing to be honest. Model rabbit hole. Might just be rolling the current pattern forward on analogs. It does look better by mid month. The Feb 15 centering is decent.. Feb 2006 on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 yeah, I just looked at the JMA and NAVGEM, as they seem to also have a cut-off to our south, and they too are warmish apparently, by sitting to our south for so long, the u/l storm just pumps the warm air north until it overwhelms the cold air, which is always tentative in these parts GFS has had an on again off again cutoff low in the SE east of JAX offshore... I think it was down to 989mb on one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 this is late and mostly posting this to pass time, but thurs and sunday are of interest in noaa's extended discussion: IN THE EAST, TWO MAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATIONEXIST. THE FIRST IS DAY 3/THU, WHEN A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THEMIDWEST HELPS TO DRAW A SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARDALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HOW THESE TWO DISCREET IMPULSESINTERACT WILL DEFINE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLS ANDWHERE. THE NEXT EVENT BREWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US BY DAY6/7 SUN/NEXT MON. LOW DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF A N-CENTRAL USBASED COLD SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN ANOTHER PAIR OFDISJOINTED SHORTWAVES OFFERS A SIMILAR SPREAD OFPRECIPITATION-TYPE AND COVERAGE POSSIBILITIES. WPC MEDIUM RANGEWEATHER GRIDS OFFER OUR LATEST BEST ESTIMATE OF AREAL COVERAGE ANDPROBABILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It appears that way.. super zoom. I'll take the under of course, if you hadn't posted the map Ian, you know you would have done the same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'll take the under of course, if you hadn't posted the map Ian, you know you would have done the same lol I'm trying to stay positive in hopes this cold isn't all just for annoyance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm not even completely sure what it's showing to be honest. Model rabbit hole. Might just be rolling the current pattern forward on analogs. It does look better by mid month. The Feb 15 centering is decent.. Feb 2006 on there. The temp anomalies are absurd in that map. There's no eastern snow anywhere in that map, even in Boston. And then Western Canada is going to be frigid given the 500-mb pattern? Yeah, it's a weird product... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The temp anomalies are absurd in that map. There's no eastern snow anywhere in that map, even in Boston. And then Western Canada is going to be frigid given the 500-mb pattern? Yeah, it's a weird product... Playing around with it more I think it is just rolling forward the current pattern... which doesn't really mean much most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm trying to stay positive in hopes this cold isn't all just for annoyance. Although the mood here has been non stop pile on complaining, the next couple weeks appear to be the best overall pattern we've seen since this ho hum winter started. Not perfect but we rarely get that anyway. I would be in the panic thread if we had a -pna and se ridge locked into the means or something similar to Dec. But just because sne is getting hammered really doesn't mean much. Bullseyes can move around. Last year was a prime example. I kinda doubt we blank out the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Guys, I have a question. Can someone tell me why we haven't had a solid -nao this winter to benefit us? It was positive last winter also. I know there is more than just that.Related to the equatorial breach. Or could be the -QBO or the lack of a SSW or a favorable MJO phase. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Although the mood here has been non stop pile on complaining, the next couple weeks appear to be the best overall pattern we've seen since this ho hum winter started. Not perfect but we rarely get that anyway. I would be in the panic thread if we had a -pna and se ridge locked into the means or something similar to Dec. But just because sne is getting hammered really doesn't mean much. Bullseyes can move around. Last year was a prime example. I kinda doubt we blank out the next 2 weeks. I have seen us do the impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Although the mood here has been non stop pile on complaining, the next couple weeks appear to be the best overall pattern we've seen since this ho hum winter started. Not perfect but we rarely get that anyway. I would be in the panic thread if we had a -pna and se ridge locked into the means or something similar to Dec. But just because sne is getting hammered really doesn't mean much. Bullseyes can move around. Last year was a prime example. I kinda doubt we blank out the next 2 weeks. How in the world did these despondent posters survive during the past "lean" seasons that were lean heading into February 2nd? Just in the last 15 seasons, I sorted out a list of winters that weren't looking "ok" by February 1st: 00/01, 01/02, 04/05, 06/07, 08/09, 11/12, 12/13. I still contend that there's nothing historically bad about this winter, and rather, that people just feel more free to dump all their complaints into every thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Although the mood here has been non stop pile on complaining, the next couple weeks appear to be the best overall pattern we've seen since this ho hum winter started. Not perfect but we rarely get that anyway. I would be in the panic thread if we had a -pna and se ridge locked into the means or something similar to Dec. But just because sne is getting hammered really doesn't mean much. Bullseyes can move around. Last year was a prime example. I kinda doubt we blank out the next 2 weeks. We do have a decent pattern shaping up. I'm sure we can score a clipper along the way. But it is fun to think about the epic stem winder possibility on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 You would think a 1034 H in Quebec would helps us out some 141-144... but alas, clipper of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The runs that warm are the really extreme ones that stall the low for days. A more reasonable solution would probably be better in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Second cold high in western Canada this run, maybe the analogs weren't crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Hopefully GFS will give us something good this run... wall of H's in Canada at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Complaining is definitely in. I'm not sure we are seeing a fundamentally different patter ahead though. We can luck out and the next 2-3 weeks in particular are still prime time into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 you look at this run of the gfs thru 220 hrs and it is just lather, rinse, and repeat for snows to our north I do not trust the euro past 2 days and no one in this sub forum should either this year the euro is the only model with this cut off low giving us snow while tonight's GFS has 5 or 6 6-hour panels showing light snow for BOS....gee, I wonder which model will be right? the pattern can be as ripe as it wants, but some years it just doesn't snow here of any consequence and this one has all those earmarks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Canadian has the semblance of something to our south on day 6 looking warmish, but the map ain't so "professional" lookin' http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 you look at this run of the gfs thru 220 hrs and it is just lather, rinse, and repeat for snows to our north I do not trust the euro past 2 days and no one in this sub forum should either this year the euro is the only model with this cut off low giving us snow while tonight's GFS has 5 or 6 6-hour panels showing light snow for BOS....gee, I wonder which model will be right? Why would you trust the GFS past 2 days and not the Euro? the pattern can be as ripe as it wants, but some years it just doesn't snow here of any consequence And those are generally years that have no good pattern... ie 01-02 or 11-12. and this one has all those earmarks Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why would you trust the GFS past 2 days and not the Euro? And those are generally years that have no good pattern... ie 01-02 or 11-12. Not really parsing away misses the point BWI has about 60% of what it should have, which gives a total of 6.1" and it's Feb. 2 add to that the recent near misses and if you want to try to convince yourself this winter so far is much better than those 2 winters you mention, knock yourself out, but you are sure as hell not going to come close to convincing me insult to injury is the fact that BWI was BN on temps and snow with AN precip in JAN, a feat it doesn't often reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 La la land... but lulz to the GFS at hr 300... PV over us ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Canadian has the semblance of something to our south on day 6 looking warmish, but the map ain't so "professional" lookin' http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif 156 has it going out to sea as a weak MSLP... and then promptly get cut off and meander around for 36 hrs offshore Looks like 5mm or so for us (rough guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 00z UKIE at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 00z UKIE at 144 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif love to know what the 850s are on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 love to know what the 850s are on that map Only goes out to 72 re 850s unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro came substantially north...no surprise there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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