Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yeah January 1996 was an odd cutoff also. Something interesting could happen out of it. I just hope the closed low doesn't go that far south so we don't waste it. South trend hasn't been our problem at all this year except for the freak early season storm that hit SC. I suppose the best thing to hope for is the lead low tracking through the tn valley and not WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 The euro weeklies are in and average below normal for each of the 4 weeks. I haven't followed them closely to know whether they are worth a hoot or not.below normal snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 below normal snow? cold thruout.. week 2 and 4 above normal precip. depressing.. going to have to chase climo to get warmer again. western ridge of doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This season is chilly/wet, cold/dry on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Snowmap thru Mar 5! lol. Looks like we get some scraps from the New England super winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 That's from weeklies btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What is that like 12-18 for the DC-Bmore metro areas? Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Brings me to climo. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Of course if you're from NE you might remember the winter as a fail except for a glorious two week period. How did you get a snow map thru March 5? Their version of the CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only second season on record where Boston has received two 15"+ storms. The other was 1977-78. That wasn't such a bad winter for us in Feb-Mar....20"+ at BWI. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Snowmap thru Mar 5! lol. Looks like we get some scraps from the New England super winter. Isn't the Euro predicted snow to actual snow ratio 100:1? So what? About 0.1-0.2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What is that like 12-18 for the DC-Bmore metro areas? Sign me up. It appears that way.. super zoom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Of course if you're from NE you might remember the winter as a fail except for a glorious two week period. How did you get a snow map thru March 5? Their version of the CFS? Ryan from wx bell tweeted a link to a day by day break down of the Euro weeklies it was in there. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/562421937951866880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only second season on record where Boston has received two 15"+ storms. The other was 1977-78. That wasn't such a bad winter for us in Feb-Mar....20"+ at BWI. Let's do this. Let's see if they can have three 18"+ storms in a season like Baltimore did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Let's see if they can have three 18"+ storms in a season like Baltimore did The map ian posted indicates they have another 30-40" to go, so they might just do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 That map is dangerous... ...but I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The map ian posted indicates they have another 30-40" to go, so they might just do it Last year was a repeat of 1993-94 with the gradient a little further south, and therefore a great winter for all of us. I feel that this year is also like 1994 in some ways (-EPO, +NAO, persistent cold in the east) but with a gradient further north and SNE being the sweet spot.Boston has a shot of getting 100" this year, which has only happened in 1994 and 1996 if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Last year was a repeat of 1993-94 with the gradient a little further south, and therefore a great winter for all of us. I feel that this year is also like 1994 in some ways (-EPO, +NAO, persistent cold in the east) but with a gradient further north and SNE being the sweet spot. Boston has a shot of getting 100" this year, which has only happened in 1994 and 1996 if I'm not mistaken 94 fell short. 96 was pretty far ahead of this seasons' so far but of course it looks like a back-loaded season for them. Other than 95/95, none of Boston's top seasons are the legendary ones for DC. Baltimore did better than DC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 After looking at the euro ens members, there's an unusual risk of a coastal low retro'ing towards the nc coast and being rain up here. The hp moving lock step with the Midwest low keeps moving. A fair # of the big precip solutions from the crawling closed ull are kinda warm. I'm certainly not sold on the whole closed and crawling stuff because that in itself is uncommon. But some of the solutions in the mix are comical in a heartbreaking kind of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 After looking at the euro ens members, there's an unusual risk of a coastal low retro'ing towards the nc coast and being rain up here. The hp moving lock step with the Midwest low keeps moving. A fair # of the big precip solutions from the crawling closed ull are kinda warm. I'm certainly not sold on the whole closed and crawling stuff because that in itself is uncommon. But some of the solutions in the mix are comical in a heartbreaking kind of way. Is there a real life example of such a storm that's happened in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Is there a real life example of such a storm that's happened in our area? Early Feb is a weird time of year to get a storm to cutoff and wobble around. But it has been showing up fairly consistently among various guidance so it does seem it's possible until the models get a grip at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Is there a real life example of such a storm that's happened in our area? I believe DC's biggest snowstorm of all-time took a stemwinder type of track similar to what the Euro is hinting at. Most likely the Euro and it's ensemble are wrong, and we end up with something else, but it's possible I guess. Of course we didn't have the technology we have today to track storms precisely back in 1922, so who knows what the exact track of that storm really was. But anytime you get a closed 500 mb bowling ball south of DC, extremely rare at that lattitude, strange things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Early Feb is a weird time of year to get a storm to cutoff and wobble around. But it has been showing up fairly consistently among various guidance so it does seem it's possible until the models get a grip at least. like I said earlier, too complicated for our location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I believe DC's biggest snowstorm of all-time took a stemwinder type of track similar to what the Euro is hinting at. Most likely the Euro and it's ensemble are wrong, and we end up with something else, but it's possible I guess. Of course we didn't have the technology we have today to track storms precisely back in 1922, so who knows what the exact track of that storm really was. the fact that you have to go back 93 years to find something along the lines of what the euro is showing, should give us all pause not that I'm rooting against it, just feeling a wee bit incredulous about its evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 like I said earlier, too complicated for our location yeah i think you're mostly right with that in general. we are a simple snow town. there is a signal for something in that sun-wedish period though... what else are we going to do with our lives right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 yeah i think you're mostly right with that in general. we are a simple snow town. there is a signal for something in that sun-wedish period though... what else are we going to do with our lives right? Good thing EURO still comes out just before 1AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 My prediction...easy to make..is the Euro run looks nothing like the previous one...extreme solutions usually get washed out. It is fun to think about though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 like I said earlier, too complicated for our location Exactly why we root for the mw low to pass south no matter what. There are plenty of those to not write anything off. Some of the more believable solutions for a good hit have the low digging southward and a long swath of overunning stretching far nw of the low center along a frontal boundary. I'm indifferent to the entire thing overall because we're way too far out in time to make fast decisions on how it goes. Could it go north again and stick SNE? Absolutely. But for now, the hp pressure center to the north is far more favorable than this last mess. Instead of moving behind the low and having a weaker arm extending across the lakes, this one move directly over top. Very big difference as it stands now. Being paranoid but hopeful is all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Problems with the setup: No 50/50 low Kicker Ridging in Western Atlantic= Progressive south to north flow. Troff goes negative too late The Western Atlantic ridge is actually negating the kicker and the late Negative tilt. The best we can hope for with that setup is a March 2009 setup which didn't do well back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I went to SV model analogs to see if there were any clues and oddly all the analogs are warm. GFS below euro almost the same. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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