psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 the whole problem is that for us to get snow is complicated I just do not recall us getting decent snows in a complicated situation eventually it may happen, but it's hard to accept This upcoming pattern isnt that complicated, just need either a northern stream system to dig in the trough enough to stay south of us, or for a STJ wave to be timed correctly with the trough position. Its not as simple as with a perfect block but its also not that complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 the whole problem is that for us to get snow is complicated I just do not recall us getting decent snows in a complicated situation eventually it may happen, but it's hard to accept I like our chances for something. I like our chances for Thursday better than I do the system in a week. At this point I'll take any additional stat padding snow I can get. Many of us are one really good storm away from reaching climo. Problem is, a lot around here have this idea that foot + storms around here are common when they're anything but. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I haven't given up yet. I want to hit climo, or have a 5" or greater storm. Either one and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This upcoming pattern isnt that complicated, just need either a northern stream system to dig in the trough enough to stay south of us, or for a STJ wave to be timed correctly with the trough position. Its not as simple as with a perfect block but its also not that complicated. I'm talking about day 6 or so, and it is complicated....it's not an already formed slp moving toward us from our S or SW where a cold dome is present and there is High pressure locked in to our north it starts as snow, turns to sleet, then back to snow according to the Euro text output I have for us, it is complicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'll take their 8" of snow. Jersey got zip. Not saying that the Euro is wrong. Just that it should give us pause. We dont need the capture to get a snow storm. A small overrun event would definitely liven up the spirits in our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro ensembles look pretty good. MSLP track through tn/ky and then moves se off the sc coast. Decent support for a convoluted long duration event. A good # of shellackings in there. Overall I would say south of the 12z op but lots of weird evolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Members look way south for the weekend.. maybe too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro ensembles look pretty good. MSLP track through tn/ky and then moves se off the sc coast. Decent support for a convoluted long duration event. A good # of shellackings in there. Overall I would say south of the 12z op but lots of weird evolutions. hmm yeah it does keep going and going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Members look way south for the weekend.. maybe too far. Lollmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro ensembles look pretty good. MSLP track through tn/ky and then moves se off the sc coast. Decent support for a convoluted long duration event. A good # of shellackings in there. Overall I would say south of the 12z op but lots of weird evolutions. complicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Lollmao i can't think of anything to type here that won't be quite mean and might hurt our online friendship so you get a pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 hmm yeah it does keep going and going Looks like the vast majority do the cutoff slow crawl once it gets off the coast. There are quite a few big hits in there. Many more than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro ensembles look pretty good. MSLP track through tn/ky and then moves se off the sc coast. Decent support for a convoluted long duration event. A good # of shellackings in there. Overall I would say south of the 12z op but lots of weird evolutions. Yeah some slow moving lows in there. I enjoyed e11 and its 40"+ of illegal snowmap over Richmond through Wednesday. DC gets screwed with only 18" though (UGH!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yeah some slow moving lows in there. I enjoyed e11 and its 40"+ of illegal snowmap over Richmond through Wednesday. DC gets screwed with only 18" though (UGH!). #48 is where it's at. 2-3' for all of nova/md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 One thing I really like about the run is the hp moves lock step and directly over top of the lp as it tracks eastward. No little arm sticking out like the most recent fail. The HP anomaly remains centered over the low the whole time. Very strong signal for the low to close off and wander up the coast from SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 go on.. keep chatting away about this.. you are virtually guaranteeing a lock that it wont happen here! It will end up being a gulf of maine storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not something you usually see on an ensemble mean 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The crazy part is the mean has had that look for 2 days now. For an ensemble mean that is ridiculous.....If that can close off farther NE we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The crazy part is the mean has had that look for 2 days now. For an ensemble mean that is ridiculous.....If that can close off farther NE we're in business. Like over Boston? I think it's got a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Like over Boston? I think it's got a chance. This belongs in the panic room thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 go on.. keep chatting away about this.. you are virtually guaranteeing a lock that it wont happen here! It will end up being a gulf of maine storm! Pardon me for asking, but do you have anything to add other than "shhh, don't talk about it"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The euro weeklies are in and average below normal for each of the 4 weeks. I haven't followed them closely to know whether they are worth a hoot or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The euro weeklies are in and average below normal for each of the 4 weeks. I haven't followed them closely to know whether they are worth a hoot or not. sweet....more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Boston got 12 to 15 inches of fresh snow and they just might have broken their old 31 inch record for snow in a 7 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The euro weeklies are in and average below normal for each of the 4 weeks. I haven't followed them closely to know whether they are worth a hoot or not. They've been hit and miss but half decent with things like the epo/ao/nao at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 GFS @ 129 hours took a step towards looking like the EURO...but is a little fast so it doesnt let the HP build in, but its a nice step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not something you usually see on an ensemble mean 8 days out. Euro did something similar in November. It just digs the crap out of the southern stream this run. Cutoff lows in the southeast are pretty rare, but then again that track is too far south for us anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Guys, I have a question. Can someone tell me why we haven't had a solid -nao this winter to benefit us? It was positive last winter also. I know there is more than just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro did something similar in November. It just digs the crap out of the southern stream this run. Cutoff lows in the southeast are pretty rare, but then again that track is too far south for us anyways. What's weird is so many ensemble members generally agreeing on the same idea. Even though the mean shows the closed low too far south, the lead low that tracks through tn/ky stripes our area pretty good and then when the closed ull forms there's a big long plume of precip thrown back. The mean precip panels are the longest duration and wettest I've ever seen. There's 10 consecutive 6 hours panels that give us .10 qpf or more. After the low closes off is crawls at a snails pace up the coast and it's not a fringe job on the run. The .10 contour is back into WVA. Mean precip for the "event" is 1". Do I believe this is what is going to happen? Not really. But seeing so much agreement at this lead is not very common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What's weird is so many ensemble members generally agreeing on the same idea. Even though the mean shows the closed low too far south, the lead low that tracks through tn/ky stripes our area pretty good and then when the closed ull forms there's a big long plume of precip thrown back. The mean precip panels are the longest duration and wettest I've ever seen. There's 10 consecutive 6 hours panels that give us .10 qpf or more. After the low closes off is crawls at a snails pace up the coast and it's not a fringe job on the run. The .10 contour is back into WVA. Mean precip for the "event" is 1". Do I believe this is what is going to happen? Not really. But seeing so much agreement at this lead is not very common. Yeah January 1996 was an odd cutoff also. Something interesting could happen out of it. I just hope the closed low doesn't go that far south so we don't waste it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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