SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There's just no margin of error for us. I said the same thing saturday. Yea, maybe it works out but I'll reserve all enthusiasm for short leads. Like really short. What are we looking at here? Similar set up to today's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There's just no margin of error for us. I said the same thing saturday. Yea, maybe it works out but I'll reserve all enthusiasm for short leads. Like really short. we need to see a track over Tallahassee within 48 hours to be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What are we looking at here? Similar set up to today's storm? Pretty much but no southern stream interaction. Just a fairly strong ns vort digging down. Ridge out west looks pretty good and there's a 50/50 above but we're just too far out to think much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 yeah...remains to be seen..should trend north and screw us, but maybe the track will be good for 50-100mi NW I expect the N and W screw job... I just don't feel like driving more than 2 hrs to see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What are we looking at here? Similar set up to today's storm? precisely....low moves from KY/IN border to APPS then jumps to VA capes...we get a few inches of snow/sleet in advance then changeover/mix Then the very common and realistic backend couple inches...verbatim, the whole thing drops 6"+ for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 At h180, there's about a foot plus for Frederick, Hagerstown, etc. and points n/w. Close by for a chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 we need to see a track over Tallahassee within 48 hours to be safe My focus is on the d3-4 deal. Nice jump south with the vort from 0z and stronger. Don't expect a whole lot but spending time analyzing that one makes more sense than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This is silly. Euro has precip in the area for about 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This is silly. Euro has precip in the area for about 60 hours. It's kind of a mix between today and the blizzard. Maybe the bad parts of each will cancel eachother out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 man..this looks really similar to this past weekend. Low tracking through the carolinas Pennsayvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's kind of a mix between today and the blizzard. Maybe the bad parts of each will cancel eachother out. I am fully on board because we have zero snow this year and there is nothing else in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Wow, Euro captures the low and stalls off MD then slowly drifts east. 500MB gets cut off, would be snowing for hours lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 thoughts from two of the most wrong people [and LC] to date on this winter locally: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/02/meteorologists-high-five-groundhog-phil-agree-on-wintry-forecast/ Be careful, he may block you on fb. Lol, he blocked me like 2 years ago because I dared to criticize him. He's a man-baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Be careful, he may block you on fb. Lol, he blocked me like 2 years ago because I dared to criticize him. He's a man-baby. He has me blocked on Twitter.. I've never even interacted with him there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 He has me blocked on Twitter.. I've never even interacted with him there. Man oh man. Anyway, Euro.....whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The setup looks similar at the surface than the last debacle but there's definitely a better 50/50 and atlantic closed ridge block. That hasn't gone away yet. Not saying the results won't be the same but it's more interesting for sure. Another one of those deals where the d3-4 thing has to go as planned before the d6-7 thing can be figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The setup looks similar at the surface than the last debacle but there's definitely a better 50/50 and atlantic closed ridge block. That hasn't gone away yet. Not saying the results won't be the same but it's more interesting for sure. Another one of those deals where the d3-4 thing has to go as planned before the d6-7 thing can be figured out. It WILL find a way to screw us. The seasonal trend this winter cannot and will not be denied. Like Matt said, we'd need a Low/precip to be down near Cuba at this point before we can have any reasonable expectations of a hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The setup looks similar at the surface than the last debacle but there's definitely a better 50/50 and atlantic closed ridge block. That hasn't gone away yet. Not saying the results won't be the same but it's more interesting for sure. Another one of those deals where the d3-4 thing has to go as planned before the d6-7 thing can be figured out. I know it's more "out there" in time as you say...but what do the mid-levels look like on the Euro for this? Are they pretty warm like the GFS has been showing? On the GFS the flow gets pretty "meh" behind this storm before another strong front moves through. I'm not sold on anything yet, but worthy to keep an eye on. At least until it blows up on us again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It WILL find a way to screw us. The seasonal trend this winter cannot and will not be denied. Like Matt said, we'd need a Low/precip to be down near Cuba at this point before we can have any reasonable expectations of a hit here. Congrats, Havana!! Since the U.S. working toward normalizing relations with Cuba, might be worth a road trip to chase! (or more appropriately, perhaps... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 It WILL find a way to screw us. The seasonal trend this winter cannot and will not be denied. Like Matt said, we'd need a Low/precip to be down near Cuba at this point before we can have any reasonable expectations of a hit here. not true...if it goes too south...it will not come north. You know the rule...when we need a north trend...it goes south and when we need a south trend...it goes north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Wow, Euro captures the low and stalls off MD then slowly drifts east. 500MB gets cut off, would be snowing for hours lol.. The capture idea alone should give us pause. We all know how that worked out for Jersey and NYC with last weeks blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I know it's more "out there" in time as you say...but what do the mid-levels look like on the Euro for this? Are they pretty warm like the GFS has been showing? On the GFS the flow gets pretty "meh" behind this storm before another strong front moves through. I'm not sold on anything yet, but worthy to keep an eye on. At least until it blows up on us again! We lose 850's for a bit as the low jumps. The whole evolution is a good bit different than the gfs. Euro digs h5 much better and has a pretty decent ridge behind it. GFS is flatter and more progressive. Each playing their bias I suppose. I'm not sure if the new gfs has a bias though. Euro ensembles looked fairly similar to today's op run overall. We in the who the F knows range either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 We lose 850's for a bit as the low jumps. The whole evolution is a good bit different than the gfs. Euro digs h5 much better and has a pretty decent ridge behind it. GFS is flatter and more progressive. Each playing their bias I suppose. I'm not sure if the new gfs has a bias though. Euro ensembles looked fairly similar to today's op run overall. We in the who the F knows range either way. Thanks! That gives me a better sort of "visual" of what the Euro is doing (crazy sounding as it is), as well as the differences with the GFS. You're right, it's definitely in who the F knows range. I think you're right, depending on what happens with whatever system there is (or isn't?) later this week will tell us a lot on whether we've got something worth tracking after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The pessimism in here is suffocating. I totally get it, I am as down about our luck as everyone else, but I look at the overall pattern and am not close to giving up on one good hit before its over. Its not the perfect pattern but its also far from hostile for a snowstorm and we are in our prime time climo period through the next few weeks. The PNA looks to take over and put a trough in the east for the foreseeable future. We lose the EPO for a while but if the PNA takes up the torch honestly in Feb I would prefer a favorable PNA over EPA if we want snow and not just cold. The NAO seems to want to stay in the neutral territory and even has an east based block showing up next week. It's not perfect but far from the hot mess on wheels we dealt with all winter until now. I could also see in this pattern that the parade of storms bombing out into the marritimes could easily push the NAO into even more favorable territory then the models are showing now, its a "good" pattern that is really close to becoming a great pattern. I am not worried by what each run of the op models show. they will bounce around and we will see some good runs and bad ones but with this pattern the chance something pops up in our favor will be there in the next few weeks. I guess my point is while we have not been lucky so far, and the pattern is not perfect, its definitely good enough to have hope and its certainly one that we have scored with in the past. This game ain't over yet so man or woman up and get on board for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Bob when 12z ensembles come out let us know how they look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The capture idea alone should give us pause. We all know how that worked out for Jersey and NYC with last weeks blizzard. I'll take their 8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Again, I am looking for just ONE storm to be so heavy it gives everyone a surplus of snow for the year! This one could do it! LOL! On a serious note, I am not serious, and if anyone accepts this at face value they are not being serious, and I am seriously thinking we are gonna be shafted, and I am really serious! Then again, a blind squirrel occasionally gets a nut.. we just keep getting kicked in them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The pessimism in here is suffocating. I totally get it, I am as down about our luck as everyone else, but I look at the overall pattern and am not close to giving up on one good hit before its over. Its not the perfect pattern but its also far from hostile for a snowstorm and we are in our prime time climo period through the next few weeks. The PNA looks to take over and put a trough in the east for the foreseeable future. We lose the EPO for a while but if the PNA takes up the torch honestly in Feb I would prefer a favorable PNA over EPA if we want snow and not just cold. The NAO seems to want to stay in the neutral territory and even has an east based block showing up next week. It's not perfect but far from the hot mess on wheels we dealt with all winter until now. I could also see in this pattern that the parade of storms bombing out into the marritimes could easily push the NAO into even more favorable territory then the models are showing now, its a "good" pattern that is really close to becoming a great pattern. I am not worried by what each run of the op models show. they will bounce around and we will see some good runs and bad ones but with this pattern the chance something pops up in our favor will be there in the next few weeks. I guess my point is while we have not been lucky so far, and the pattern is not perfect, its definitely good enough to have hope and its certainly one that we have scored with in the past. This game ain't over yet so man or woman up and get on board for the ride. I know the 12Z ops GFS had some wild stuff today but it may not be completely out to lunch in the overall large scale flow. The GEFS ensemble mean has had the sort of the look you discuss here, in an overall broad sense. It's shown that pretty consistently, too, and I have seen hints of a neutral or perhaps even slightly negative NAO. Regardless, it had a mean (fairly deep) trough in the east and looked pretty cold overall. Whether that turns into something finally, who knows. (ETA: Your reference to "taking up the torch" is sort of an ironic turn of phrase I think...might raise some eyebrows!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Again, I am looking for just ONE storm to be so heavy it gives everyone a surplus of snow for the year! This one could do it! LOL! On a serious note, I am not serious, and if anyone accepts this at face value they are not being serious, and I am seriously thinking we are gonna be shafted, and I am really serious! Then again, a blind squirrel occasionally gets a nut.. we just keep getting kicked in them! Our region has been a castrato in that regard. We've had a very "eunich" ability to miss snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 the whole problem is that for us to get snow is complicated I just do not recall us getting decent snows in a complicated situation eventually it may happen, but it's hard to accept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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