dallen7908 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wouldn't we be derelict in our duties if we don't start a thread? Our role in the mid-Atlantic forum is to carry the football to mid-field before handing it over to more northern forums (or should we say before it is stripped from our hands by the varsity). With respect to the GFS and EURO patterns. The west coast ridge is further east and weaker in the GFS, also the east coast flow is east/southeast as opposed to east/northeast in the EURO. Seems kind of different. … but I guess you'll are referring to the omega signature. I'm hoping this storm is real; the models have sniffed out most storms by day 7 this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Did you read the books CAPE? It will be interesting what they decide to make the major plot line to be since this season kimd of covers two books No I didnt. I have to be very careful reading anything online with the major spoiler potential. Not that the show follows the books faithfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There is quite a bit of support for the light/moderate event during the sat-mon timeframe. Spread gets larger for the follow up. Seems to be trending towards adding to our seasonal totals over the next 10 days. Gotta wonder what its gonna take to set a widespread warning criteria snow event. We are certainly due, not that that means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 #3 analog for GEFS 168 hour http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/EXT_event.php?reg=EAST&fhr=F168&&dt=2010020118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Plenty of strong lows in the Feb 10-11 period or so on euro ensembles. Ill take this one for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Plenty of strong lows in the Feb 10-11 period or so on euro ensembles. Ill take this one for now It ends up as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Good work Ian! I like #23. It's a 72 hour all snow event. #50 goes warm at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It ends up as rain ok, fine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Good work Ian! I like #23. It's a 72 hour all snow event. #50 goes warm at the end. I forgot to use the stamps as a guide. #10 ftw. too bad it happens mostly after d10 with the big maps. meandering 971mb must retrograde or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm hoping this storm is real; the models have sniffed out most storms by day 7 this season ...And snuffed out most storms by day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I forgot to use the stamps as a guide. #10 ftw. too bad it happens mostly after d10 with the big maps. meandering 971mb must retrograde or something. One storm puts at above normal for the whole season! Thato would be hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I forgot to use the stamps as a guide. #10 ftw. too bad it happens mostly after d10 with the big maps. meandering 971mb must retrograde or something. lol- WxBell is the king at weenie time wasting. The pattern actually looks ok for the next 2 weeks and maybe beyond. We never lose the +pna and it looks like cold with be in large supply in the east. Euro ens are advertising a pretty stout -epo late in the run (gefs is cold too). Pretty big cold signal for so far out in time. If we blank out over the next 2 weeks then I'm pretty sure that same dude from 2012-13 in a back alley room in the french quarter is jabbing pins in the voodoo doll again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 One storm puts at above normal for the whole season! Thato would be hilarious. This isn't the BECS you are looking for. Move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hi Wes. There seems to be a similar omega block almost in the other hemisphere. The blocks seem almost 180 degree from each other. Would this imply a stable pattern that should persist? For a couple of days maybe, I'm not sure you can say much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I really hate the BECS reference. Just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I really hate the BECS reference. Just stupid. same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GFS is warm with a low in the lakes around day 6-7...any storm will have to follow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GFS is warm with a low in the lakes around day 6-7...any storm will have to follow.... Yup.... there is a weak GOM low at 186. Don't think it will do much for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GFS is warm with a low in the lakes around day 6-7...any storm will have to follow.... Much different across canada. Hope it's an aberation but this year, that's been the story. If we don't get something by the 16th, I'm folding up my tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Probably a fluke run it is totally different inCanada and the Atlantic..."nothing stops this train, nothing" -Walter White Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lovely 1048 H at 231... good thing it will help... oh wait.. nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dont jump off the train guys no fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Much different across canada. Hope it's an aberation but this year, that's been the story. If we don't get something by the 16th, I'm folding up my tent. I've gotten accumulating snow after 2/16, 22 times in the last 10 winters, including 9 over 2". Not great climo for me, but enough events to keep my interest piqued. I'm usually invested through the 1st week of March. Then, unless there is a threat, I stop paying attention. Plus the Euro comes out an hour later starting 3/8. So I am definitely in it for the next 5 weeks. Though unless something decent materializes in the next 2 weeks, I am going to chase LES Presidents day weekend if there is something to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lovely 1048 H at 231... good thing it will help... oh wait.. nothing Make that 1050 at 243... arctic H that basically does nothing at all. There's not even a hint of a threat for us at all so far on this GFS run... even a hint at "SnowTV" is denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z dgex joins the party, one word: CAD http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I've gotten accumulating snow after 2/16, 22 times in the last 10 winters, including 9 over 2". Not great climo for me, but enough events to keep my interest piqued. I'm usually invested through the 1st week of March. Then, unless there is a threat, I stop paying attention. Plus the Euro comes out an hour later starting 3/8. So I am definitely in it for the next 5 weeks. Though unless something decent materializes in the next 2 weeks, I am going to chase LES Presidents day weekend if there is something to chase. You should go up to davis WV to chase their upslope snow, plus u can xc ski or downhill ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 A lot of the euro ensemble members have a march 58 sort of look to them. Still way to far out to get excited but it's a nice threat period. Don't really care what one run of the gfs shows. Going to get lots of solutions in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro ens mean snow ranges from 6-12" across the area for the event combining the two parts. That's about as strong a signal you will ever see on a 6-10 day ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hr 189 on 18z and 195 on 12z on GFS op look like they came from different seasons....Feb and April...doesn't matter but I just need something to track and complain about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Well it's warm, but the GFS at least has a storm in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Really is an odd evolution as a low dies in the lakes and reforms over western north carolina, but similar to what other models have been showing so perhaps it has some legs. Low probability high consequence type deal. Nearly 3.00" qpf over Philadelphia as the low deepens and retrogrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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