Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It looks pretty excellent to keep things below us this time but I'm definitely jaded for now. I could go all weenie and envision h5 closing off and not having so much suppression in front. Euro is definitely amp happy at medium to long leads. That's a fact this year. It does close off but off the sc coast. Trough is going negative as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 One positive is this threat continues to remain next Sunday as opposed to being stuck at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 just something I noticed on today's CFS2 precip forecast it had been having normal precip right along almost the entire east coast butt that shifted today to normal along the MA and SE coast, with even one little small green dot over MD's eastern shore I think the pattern it's sniffin' out is being reflected on both the GFS and Euro http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro isn't far off from a big storm for us. I suppose 1-2' to the beaches of nc-sc is possible but it wasn't far from a big up the coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro isn't far off from a big storm for us. I suppose 1-2' to the beaches of nc-sc is possible but it wasn't far from a big up the coast storm. The GFS was also close to being a big storm and it also has the atlantic blocking. As Matt says, it's a window of opportunity, probably a pretty good window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I suppose 1-2' to the beaches of nc-sc is possible I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro isn't far off from a big storm for us. I suppose 1-2' to the beaches of nc-sc is possible but it wasn't far from a big up the coast storm. Watch this time have no north trend But seems like this time period (Feb 8-10) is our best shot this winter... which isnt saying very much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 whew....I checked 2m on the Euro and it's rain at HAT notwithstanding great 850's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Watch this time have no north trend But seems like this time period (Feb 8-10) is our best shot this winter... which isnt saying very much at all 192 hr on the op GFS is a nice look and nothing like I have seen this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Watch this time have no north trend But seems like this time period (Feb 8-10) is our best shot this winter... which isnt saying very much at all Looks like there might be a storm somewhere. I guess we never learn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like there might be a storm somewhere. I guess we never learn here. We live in the fantasy world too much when it comes to snowstorms... reality world when it comes to severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Some of the GFS members sniffing out this event. So far out but something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We have to talk about something, right? I imagine this as more casual talk than snow addicts standing in the corner shadows incessantly murmuring "We can't win if we don't track." Edit--High-z is def in the corner It's fine it looks interesting. Yoda talking north trend. It's model spew still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's fine it looks interesting. Yoda talking north trend. It's model spew still. The GFS was also close to being a big storm and it also has the atlantic blocking. As Matt says, it's a window of opportunity, probably a pretty good window. yes...just a window where something could happen....we don't even know the days yet...as far as I'm concerned there is no discrete storm....we might have a good pattern for a few days, and there is a signal for some storm of some kind to happen during that window...that's pretty much it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS was also close to being a big storm and it also has the atlantic blocking. As Matt says, it's a window of opportunity, probably a pretty good window. HM tweeted he couldn't believe the unmet had a low cutting with a block, models are just mathematics, how can a model do that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS was also close to being a big storm and it also has the atlantic blocking. As Matt says, it's a window of opportunity, probably a pretty good window. What graphic do I look at and what features should I be looking for to see the block.. seriously I want to understand this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What graphic do I look at and what features should I be looking for to see the block.. seriously I want to understand this better. Euro and GFS @ 168. Euro on top and GFS on the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015020112&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=390 What graphic do I look at and what features should I be looking for to see the block.. seriously I want to understand this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro and GFS @ 168. Euro on top and GFS on the bottom euro168.JPG gfs168.JPG It's actually closed low, upper level ridge and closed high that extends northward to iceland and the upper low near Spain. that's pretty much an omega block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's actually closed low, upper level ridge and closed high that extends northward to iceland and the upper low near Spain. that's pretty much an omega block. Hi Wes. There seems to be a similar omega block almost in the other hemisphere. The blocks seem almost 180 degree from each other. Would this imply a stable pattern that should persist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z JMA is lock and loaded for this event, its pretty impressive how similar GFS JMA and EURO look for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z JMA is lock and loaded for this event, its pretty impressive how similar GFS JMA and EURO look for this range. I just hope we can find a new way to fail. The exiting cold, inland track with 33 and rain is really boring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I cant get JMA precip maps on my phone for some reason, but 500mb is delicious Id imagine it shows a snowstorm...It also has that 50/50 feature that GFS & EURO show... Can i ask for a favor from my MA friends, can I start a thread on this? I think its good karma to let an outsider start a thread, Highzenberg Storm has a nice ring to it, plus Game of Thrones trailer just came out, winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I cant get JMA precip maps on my phone for some reason, but 500mb is delicious Id imagine it shows a snowstorm...It also has that 50/50 feature that GFS & EURO show... Can i ask for a favor from my MA friends, can I start a thread on this? I think its good karma to let an outsider start a thread, Highzenberg Storm has a nice ring to it, plus Game of Thrones trailer just came out, winter is coming. Saw the GOT trailer. Cant wait. As far as starting a new thread...lol dont do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If you look at the 500mb evolution of the event on the EURO/GFS/JMA you can see the beautiful impact of the temporary block as the shortwave kind of meanders and doesnt stop digging. I think if this storm is legit and models are right about the Atlantic therss a better chance for a miss to the south than the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Did you read the books CAPE? It will be interesting what they decide to make the major plot line to be since this season kimd of covers two books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 do the euro ensembles have it still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 do the euro ensembles have it still? I just looked on tidbits and "yes", it does, but they don't give ind. members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's actually closed low, upper level ridge and closed high that extends northward to iceland and the upper low near Spain. that's pretty much an omega block. Absolutely. I was pointing out the easiest thing to track. 50/50 placement is dependent on the ridge but for ease of watching, keeping an eye on the 50/50 will tell most of the story. If the closed ridge ends up weaker the 50/50 would likely end up further north. Euro ensembles like the storm in general. Mean looks quite similar to the op with the closed ridge and 50/50. Plenty of members support a decent storm but spread in tracks. All in all, things look as good as you can ask for at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There is quite a bit of support for the light/moderate event during the sat-mon timeframe. Spread gets larger for the follow up. Seems to be trending towards adding to our seasonal totals over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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