clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at h5 this storm is ripe to have the same issues as the current one. The HP is in a much better position than this current storm was modeled. But Let me know when it gets inside 72 hours. I have learned my lesson for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at h5 this storm is ripe to have the same issues as the current one. Is H5 more likely to be correct at this range than other levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I see it as another long range signal for a NE blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Is H5 more likely to be correct at this range than other levels? At this lead we will get a brand new look every 6-12 hours. Trends are somewhat meaningful but way too much time to worry about op runs. Ensembles will be loaded with spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 500mb pattern looks a lot like PD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At this lead we will get a brand new look every 6-12 hours. Trends are somewhat meaningful but way too much time to worry about op runs. Ensembles will be loaded with spread. So what concerns you about the H5 setup today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What did PD2 look like at 500 8-10 days prior I wonder...it would n be fun to track a long lead storm and have it deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So what concerns you about the H5 setup today? Too close for comfort. Vort is digging down a bit north for my liking. Tracking through nebraska and continuing it's southward trend because of a huge closed upper level low over the canadian maritimes. Move that low north or take it away and we have another nw track. The rainstorm were about to have required the same thing to stay south. Didn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z Euro...snow moves in Sunday morning...we're all getting raked by midday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z Euro...snow moves in Sunday morning...we're all getting raked by midday it's a razor thin margin of error. I'll hug this run for now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 FYI - doing this because it is fun, not because I think it will happen this way or at all... by Midnight sunday, 5" on ground for DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 h5 @ 174 is pretty nice. Perfectly placed 50/50 and nice ridge placement out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z Euro...snow moves in Sunday morning...we're all getting raked by midday do you mean next sunday?? FYI - doing this because it is fun, not because I think it will happen this way or at all... by Midnight sunday, 5" on ground for DC metro on this run of the euro what hour please, or is this all phony?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 h5 @ 174 is pretty nice. Perfectly placed 50/50 and nice ridge placement out west. 6" event ending Monday morning...I wonder what the rest of the run will do? if we will see the part 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 do you mean next sunday?? on this run of the euro what hour please, or is this all phony?? I think so next Sunday..the Gerry Cooney Storm...or Quarry..great white hope...or hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6" event ending Monday morning...I wonder what the rest of the run will do? if we will see the part 2? The vort digs for oil. All kinds of confluence in front of it but it's a digger for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Too close for comfort. Vort is digging down a bit north for my liking. Tracking through nebraska and continuing it's southward trend because of a huge closed upper level low over the canadian maritimes. Move that low north or take it away and we have another nw track. The rainstorm were about to have required the same thing to stay south. Didn't work out. THis time the Euro is showing a big time block in the At;antic so it may not be an analogous situation. Note the omega type blocking look. That might hold in the vortex near the maritimes. It's almost an east based negative NAO or at least a neutral one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Congrats SC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Let's fire up the Feb 10th Storm Threat...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The vort digs for oil. All kinds of confluence in front of it but it's a digger for sure. At 192 the base of the vort is almost to the yucatan. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Let's fire up the Feb 10th Storm Threat...lol ehh....I think we should wait..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 THis time the Euro is showing a big time block in the At;antic so it may not be an analogous situation. Note the omega type blocking look. That might hold in the vortex near the maritimes. It's almost an east based negative NAO or at least a neutral one.Something we don't have today..so maybe it won't fail entirely..but that is a long lead to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At 192 the base of the vort is almost to the yucatan. lol Fantasy snow was more fun last night when it was a 48hr+ event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Something we don't have today..so maybe it won't fail entirely..but that is a long lead to get excited It's a window of interest...nothing more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think so next Sunday..the Gerry Cooney Storm...or Quarry..great white hope...or hype thanks i see it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Fantasy snow was more fun last night when it was a 48hr+ event Let's just focus on thurs for now. I have a hunch it end up a 1-3 kinda deal. Maybe I'm crazy but it's in range and has a little upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Let's just focus on thurs for now. I have a hunch it end up a 1-3 kinda deal. Maybe I'm crazy but it's in range and has a little upside. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Myrtle Beach chase?....20" west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 THis time the Euro is showing a big time block in the At;antic so it may not be an analogous situation. Note the omega type blocking look. That might hold in the vortex near the maritimes. It's almost an east based negative NAO or at least a neutral one. It looks pretty excellent to keep things below us this time but I'm definitely jaded for now. I could go all weenie and envision h5 closing off and not having so much suppression in front. Euro is definitely amp happy at medium to long leads. That's a fact this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Let's just focus on thurs for now. I have a hunch it end up a 1-3 kinda deal. Maybe I'm crazy but it's in range and has a little upside. yeah, I agree all 66-72 hrs.+ forecasts have been wrong this winter, whether it be the clippers earlier or last weekend's debacle along with today's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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