Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Oh, to be back at Bucknell... Fortunately the way it comes together is nonsensical....... plus that includes the shafter tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And, even if it did have support from the ensembles, it wouldn't matter. We need to get within 48-60 hours this season before really getting a good feel for what's going to happen, model agreement be damned. True, the euro ens mean gives it support but has the temps a tad warm for snow but it has a good track with an amorphous low so that probably is because of the spread of members tothe north. It suggest a period to watch but like all this year, a pattern that is less than perfect so getting a the right track is imperative. Of course at 10 days the idea of a storm still could be fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Day 9 storm doesn't have a lot of support from the GEFS ensembes other than there will be some type of shortwave approaching the coast day 9 or 10 but only one member has a trough as strong as the Euro and it has a more northerly low look. Day 9 snowstorms are sort of like Redskin off season moves, they look good at first glance but rarely ever produce. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fortunately the way it comes together is nonsensical....... plus that includes the shafter tomorrow. I just mean in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 True, the euro ens mean gives it support but has the temps a tad warm for snow but it has a good track with an amorphous low so that probably is because of the spread of members tothe north. It suggest a period to watch but like all this year, a pattern that is less than perfect so getting a the right track is imperative. Of course at 10 days the idea of a storm still could be fiction. I'm not reaching for the rope or anything, but this whole winter has been really frustrating. Even when things look good at relatively reasonable ranges, we can't rely on the outputs down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 An interesting thing about the AO/NAO right now is the ops are definitely trending towards it holding longer as we move forward in time. You can see on the gfs multi run plots. Euro op has been doing the same thing. Pushing any spike to + out in time. Ensembles are starting to move in that direction. Especially the GEFS. So what first looked like a hit and run -ao is changing. Not too long ago ensembles were honking a massive consolidated vortex and raging +ao/nao again. That idea seems to have just about completely gone away. I'm not sold that we go back to a +ao and hold. Could be happening the other way. What it means for us has yet to be seen. I'm with everyone else. I really don't care what models are showing beyond 4 days. Yea, it's nice to see things but even when they happen, results end up much different as we move in. I don't think next week is dead at all. We just have no way of knowing how things will evolve. I'd actually prefer a surprise short lead storm at this point. I'm probably not alone on that either. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 An interesting thing about the AO/NAO right now is the ops are definitely trending towards it holding longer as we move forward in time. You can see on the gfs multi run plots. Euro op has been doing the same thing. Pushing any spike to + out in time. Ensembles are starting to move in that direction. Especially the GEFS. So what first looked like a hit and run -ao is changing. Not too long ago ensembles were honking a massive consolidated vortex and raging +ao/nao again. That idea seems to have just about completely gone away. I'm not sold that we go back to a +ao and hold. Could be happening the other way. What it means for us has yet to be seen. I'm with everyone else. I really don't care what models are showing beyond 4 days. Yea, it's nice to see things but even when they happen, results end up much different as we move in. I don't think next week is dead at all. We just have no way of knowing how things will evolve. I'd actually prefer a surprise short lead storm at this point. I'm probably not alone on that either. lol gfsao.JPG gfsnao.JPG Pretty much agree with everything in this post, esp the last part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 An interesting thing about the AO/NAO right now is the ops are definitely trending towards it holding longer as we move forward in time. You can see on the gfs multi run plots. Euro op has been doing the same thing. Pushing any spike to + out in time. Ensembles are starting to move in that direction. Especially the GEFS. So what first looked like a hit and run -ao is changing. Not too long ago ensembles were honking a massive consolidated vortex and raging +ao/nao again. That idea seems to have just about completely gone away. I'm not sold that we go back to a +ao and hold. Could be happening the other way. What it means for us has yet to be seen. I'm with everyone else. I really don't care what models are showing beyond 4 days. Yea, it's nice to see things but even when they happen, results end up much different as we move in. I don't think next week is dead at all. We just have no way of knowing how things will evolve. I'd actually prefer a surprise short lead storm at this point. I'm probably not alone on that either. lol gfsao.JPG gfsnao.JPG Best news all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 An interesting thing about the AO/NAO right now is the ops are definitely trending towards it holding longer as we move forward in time. You can see on the gfs multi run plots. Euro op has been doing the same thing. Pushing any spike to + out in time. Ensembles are starting to move in that direction. Especially the GEFS. So what first looked like a hit and run -ao is changing. Not too long ago ensembles were honking a massive consolidated vortex and raging +ao/nao again. That idea seems to have just about completely gone away. I'm not sold that we go back to a +ao and hold. Could be happening the other way. What it means for us has yet to be seen. I'm with everyone else. I really don't care what models are showing beyond 4 days. Yea, it's nice to see things but even when they happen, results end up much different as we move in. I don't think next week is dead at all. We just have no way of knowing how things will evolve. I'd actually prefer a surprise short lead storm at this point. I'm probably not alone on that either. lol gfsao.JPG gfsnao.JPG This has lifted my spirits. Thank you Mr. Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I kind of expect a colder than normal (or +1 at DCA) Feb/Mar even without much good snow to go with it. Someone needs to nuke the western ridge. I'm all in on the 9th storm. Happy Birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It is interesting to watch the -NAO in particular as it seems to be wanting to keep regenerating after it shows up. GFS ens actually get it to be west based (tho minor so maybe not true -NAO) by the end of the run after a brief relaxation. Euro not so much though it pulsates there off and on too thruout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm disgusted by the current situation but still hopeful we get one good event in feb. Pattern is not hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I was snowed in for almost a week in Boone NC during March '93. Best time of my life despite lack of groceries and power. You never know - we could see another Cat5 snowstorm in our lifetimes! March 1993 was the most dynamic snowstorm I've ever seen. Granted it was a once in a lifetime storm, but March snowstorms can be fun, unless you are looking for it to stick around for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like next sunday-Monday has a chance to produce a significant snowfall. Storm dropping down from Midwest it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like next sunday-Monday has a chance to produce a significant snowfall. Storm dropping down from Midwest it looks like. Not that it matters at this range but 2m temps are on fire so would be white rain at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This reminds me a bit of 1993. I was living in Ontario then, can recall February was almost non-stop very cold with weak systems racing south, then a large high built up near end of the month and that east coast blizzard developed in March. Maybe something along those lines will be in the future. With the sort of snow pack building up over the inland northeast, when the right time comes, the dynamics should be great for your turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is a pretty good euro run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2nd run in row with EURO showing this day 8-10 event, interesting setup good high to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2nd run in row with EURO showing this day 8-10 event, interesting setup good high to north It was also all over the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 FWIW, Euro has an 8-12" event next Sunday/Monday...pretty weird progression, but maybe we'll have something to track - and then be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Zwyts, since youre awake, doesnt the 500mb on the EURO day 8-10 remind you of a mid march type event, slow moving closing off ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 FWIW, Euro has an 8-12" event next Sunday/Monday...pretty weird progression, but maybe we'll have something to track - and then be disappointed looks sorta similar to this debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Check out the 12z euro ens mean for day 8-10 had big trough in the east indicating euro really liked the idea of something for this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 looks sorta similar to this debacle I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Check out the 12z euro ens mean for day 8-10 had big trough in the east indicating euro really liked the idea of something for this time frame It will likely be complex and heartbreaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol...it's the storm that never ends...12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Long duration storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 snow 48 hours straight? why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I know 180 hours out...might as well be 384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 snow 48 hours straight? why not?would be my 7th favorite storm ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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