gymengineer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A stat that may be depressing or positive depending on your perspective on how tracking storms has gone this winter: DCA's biggest snow event came after February 20th in 4 out of the 10 past seasons (2014, 2013, 2009, 2007). If you expand to DC metro, that would be 5 out of the past 10 winters (2005 would get added in there-- at DCA it was close- 2.9" on 2/24 vs. 3" in the New England blizzard in January). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pretty much agree. We're not getting snow with mild air. Spring will come soon enough and when we hit 90 for the first time we'll be longing for some cool weather.I'd like to punt and say it's over but we are just starting Feb so tough to say no storm will deliver. Sure does look bleak right now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A stat that may be depressing or positive depending on your perspective on how tracking storms has gone this winter: DCA's biggest snow event came after February 20th in 4 out of the 10 past seasons (2014, 2013, 2009, 2007). If you expand to DC metro, that would be 5 out of the past 10 winters (2005 would get added in there-- at DCA it was close- 2.9" on 2/24 vs. 3" in the New England blizzard in January). March snow sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 March snow sucks Strongly disagree. I like all snow; autumn, winter and spring. All have different character. Nothing nicer than seeing snow on the onions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The only snow that sucks is no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The only snow that sucks is no snow.Our specialty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 6Z GFS has tomorrow's storm, the one later in the week, another one after that and also what appears to be 2 clippers. Maybe one can get us snow. the 12 z doesn't unless you count tomorrows non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 March 1993 was the most dynamic snowstorm I've ever seen. Granted it was a once in a lifetime storm, but March snowstorms can be fun, unless you are looking for it to stick around for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hopefully after this cold and dry nonsense ahead we can flip to warm for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hopefully after this cold and dry nonsense ahead we can flip to warm for a while. I wish but the latest GEFS ens guidance suggests maybe a day or two of moderation and then the pattern reverts to what it's been. On the bright side the Euro has a winter storm on the 9th that can break hearts over the next week or so until it becomes a rain storm or a nothing storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro shows a storm day 9 that looks similar to this storm but has the look it gave us Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wish but the latest GEFS ens guidance suggests maybe a day or two of moderation and then the pattern reverts to what it's been. On the bright side the Euro has a winter storm on the 9th that can break hearts over the next week or so until it becomes a rain storm or a nothing storm I kind of expect a colder than normal (or +1 at DCA) Feb/Mar even without much good snow to go with it. Someone needs to nuke the western ridge. I'm all in on the 9th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 We need it to trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro shows a storm day 9 that looks similar to this storm but has the look it gave us Thursday At least we know the outcome already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its actually a near hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just put 9th on my mental pay no mind list...which really means I will check every model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its actually a near hecs isn't it early to be hammered even for a saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its actually a near hecs It's like 40 hours of weird overunning that destroys central pa before sagging south then a coastal takes over and destroys us. On my phone so can't see the details. No chance it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's like 40 hours of weird overunning that destroys central pa before sagging south then a coastal takes over and destroys us. On my phone so can't see the details. No chance it holds. I don't know...sounds legit to me. I'll punt after this one. Or maybe 60 hours out when the models shift to show cold rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It snows for like 54 hours in PA on the EURO, lmao. Remember when the LR Euro meant something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That day 9-10 reminds me of the signal the euro gave before last week's ne bliz. I'd be psyched if I was them and near suicidal if in the MA...oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt says pattern breaks down after the 5th...so nevermind to this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Day 9 storm doesn't have a lot of support from the GEFS ensembes other than there will be some type of shortwave approaching the coast day 9 or 10 but only one member has a trough as strong as the Euro and it has a more northerly low look. Day 9 snowstorms are sort of like Redskin off season moves, they look good at first glance but rarely ever produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This period covers what is going to be the best pattern in the history of ever, so I am sure we will be counting our snow in feet - both digital and real life. My digital to real snow ratio is about 9:1 so far. So I guess I would need model agreement on about 40" for me to feel confident in a warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's an hecs only 9 days away. Why aren't people more excited ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt says pattern breaks down after the 5th...so nevermind to this thread Our best storms are during pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt says pattern breaks down after the 5th...so nevermind to this thread Looks like a western ridge/eastern trough for at least the next 10 days. Not sure what he is referring to. We dont have a real neg AO/NAO now nor will we over the next 10 days. But generally it looks cold. Beyond that who the hell knows. The models surely dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's an hecs only 9 days away. Why aren't people more excited ? I'm kinda bummed looking at this map tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Day 9 storm doesn't have a lot of support from the GEFS ensembes other than there will be some type of shortwave approaching the coast day 9 or 10 but only one member has a trough as strong as the Euro and it has a more northerly low look. Day 9 snowstorms are sort of like Redskin off season moves, they look good at first glance but rarely ever produce. And, even if it did have support from the ensembles, it wouldn't matter. We need to get within 48-60 hours this season before really getting a good feel for what's going to happen, model agreement be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm kinda bummed looking at this map tbh Oh, to be back at Bucknell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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