Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lovin the 18z gfs through 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lovin the 18z gfs through 8 days malolz.JPG It'll trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ensembles are at least insistent on a general ridge west/trough east for a couple weeks with no breakdown. Obviously sensible wx isn't as static day over day but it seems pretty stable on the averages. Not a great big storm look with no stable blocking showing up but there are some signs of blocking coming into the picture down the line. Do I believe we get a stable -nao/nao? Not until its happening. That's for sure. The short story is I really don't see a breakdown of cold shots for a while. Certainly no warm-up is being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ensembles are at least insistent on a general ridge west/trough east for a couple weeks with no breakdown. Obviously sensible wx isn't as static day over day but it seems pretty stable on the averages. Not a great big storm look with no stable blocking showing up but there are some signs of blocking coming into the picture down the line. Do I believe we get a stable -nao/nao? Not until its happening. That's for sure. The short story is I really don't see a breakdown of cold shots for a while. Certainly no warm-up is being advertised. no warm up. heart broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ensembles are at least insistent on a general ridge west/trough east for a couple weeks with no breakdown. Obviously sensible wx isn't as static day over day but it seems pretty stable on the averages. Not a great big storm look with no stable blocking showing up but there are some signs of blocking coming into the picture down the line. Do I believe we get a stable -nao/nao? Not until its happening. That's for sure. The short story is I really don't see a breakdown of cold shots for a while. Certainly no warm-up is being advertised. nice job Mr. Cohen....I hope he becomes the laughing stock of the met community, the cocky incompetent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs is close to something big next week....like really close... Treble hook in mouth but not set yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Given the trends this week, you can't help but like where the gfs is now for the late week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs is close to something big next week....like really close... Treble hook in mouth but not set yet. Yup, pull back that first wave to a little overunning with the FROPA, consolidate that into that 500mb that closes off for 9 hours and BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs is close to something big next week....like really close... Treble hook in mouth but not set yet. I'm looking forward to tracking Boston's next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Given the trends this week, you can't help but like where the gfs is now for the late week event.Euro had a mega shift last run with a nasty arctic front pushing quick. They have been over done at medium leads all season. If a ns vort can phase into the ss leftover without getting squished in oblivion things can happen. The other way would be for trailing vort to simply do its own thing along a boundary. My early wag is a big tease and fail. Going for verification scores now cuz I suck at focusing on what could go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As I mentioned earlier, I've seen and noted this evolution before except in reverse lol. We went from a phased bomb coastal to eventually what is showing on GFS now. Front running southern jet s/w - northern stream dropping in too late phase. Front runner spins up a low and takes all the dynamics out to sea and ruins everything. This time it seems the GFS is trending towards a phase with each run. 0z almost wants to drop in Arctic jet (nasty cold moving in overhead). Three Streams are close ;-) this def has the potential to be "the one" for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs is close to something big next week....like really close... Treble hook in mouth but not set yet. ukie likes too. I laughed at the ukie when it showed an ill. To pa. Track the other day when the gfs and euro had a southern slider for feb 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z CMC has a glancing blow in that time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Vort class says the GFS has enough work to do not to get overly interested until the Euro crushes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol just looked at the Euro... forgot this range is a total waste of time. so many waves and streams and shredding and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i posted this in the philly forum as well....i have had quite a few capt and cokes tonight....if i turn my lap top upside down is will that be a south trend???? when it comes to reversing bad trends we've tried it and it doesn't work. sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Damn midlo. First of three hooks pressing against skin. Ggem putting pressure... Ian, compare 12z against 0z on the euro. Wholesale shift. Big flag for who knows. This porential storn was a miller rAin or se whiff last couple days. I'm more interested now. Mostly because it's going to rain sunday but slightly because I like where things are trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I mentioned this the other night when staying up to see the EC. I not only wanted to see what it was trending for us on Feb1-2 (big waste of time), but given some of the global runs of late, I was also curious as to what it had for the 5th-6th. The signal had been there on occasion, and was "back" with the 12Z GEM and to some extent the 12Z GFS. Especially if our current system that "wasn't" becomes a pseuo 50-50 low for the next (anchoring that HP to the north that we so sorely need, and won't get, for Sun) It's almost getting to the point where I wouldn't be shocked to see a separate thread on 2/5-2/6 this time tomorrow. Almost.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the general shot I see for FEB is the depiction on the CFS2 it has the current mess in SE Canada evolving basically in a cold vortex as depicted in the two links below because of its size, I think (and hope, of course) that it will act to muscle other short waves around it that will give us a shot or two it certainly could suck in some of the short waves, but not all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the general shot I see for FEB is the depiction on the CFS2 it has the current mess in SE Canada evolving basically in a cold vortex as depicted in the two links below because of its size, I think (and hope, of course) that it will act to muscle other short waves around it that will give us a shot or two it certainly could suck in some of the short waves, but not all Daughter Polar Vortex sucking in shortwaves. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure what is so great about that depiction Mitch. It's a raging pos nao and we are on the backside of the trough. Looks cold and dry to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The cold shot after the storm is looking very pedestrian all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The cold shot after the storm is looking very pedestrian all of a sudden. Frickin good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Because icebox cold with no snow is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Because icebox cold with no snow is crap. It just minimizes our chances at something during peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hasn't helped to this point. Too cold is often too dry around here. I don't get people who chase record cold. Useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 6Z GFS has tomorrow's storm, the one later in the week, another one after that and also what appears to be 2 clippers. Maybe one can get us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hasn't helped to this point. Too cold is often too dry around here. I don't get people who chase record cold. Useless. Not a fan of brutal cold and dry in general. But its better than being in a mild pattern and hoping for snow. If the pattern is good cold/dry air is fine. Worked out last year here where I caught the northern edge of that southern slider. Was 12 degrees and I got 5 inches of perfect fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not a fan of brutal cold and dry in general. But its better than being in a mild pattern and hoping for snow. If the pattern is good cold/dry air is fine. Worked out last year here where I caught the northern edge of that southern slider. Was 12 degrees and I got 5 inches of perfect fluff. Pretty much agree. We're not getting snow with mild air. Spring will come soon enough and when we hit 90 for the first time we'll be longing for some cool weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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