paulythegun Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Early one. It's a big hit with precip. SLP track is a bit dicey. Euro ensembles jumping on the more suppressed solution vs a cutter/runner. Plenty of acceptable outcomes mixed in there. Wow yeah that was a pretty big shift from 00z. Really only maybe 6 or 7 cutters/runners in there. if I lived in Richmond, I'd love that run. Not terrible for us either...rather have agreement/a little bit of suppression than half the members showing either (1) a dicey Miller B or (2) a runner with horrible soul crushing cold rain followed by warmer drizzle then a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I was in Mainsfield MA for the storm (couple burroughs east of RI)...it was the same where I was. I never got into truly heavy blinding snow. The snow growth was terrible. It just snowed forever & was cold. It was like sand falling from the sky.The winds were sweet, but honestly. I enjoyed my NEMO road trip a helluva lot more. One of my favorite winter storm of my life was January 26-27 2011. Got like 10" in 3.5 hours. I'll take heavy snow over sand snow that falls for a day 1/2. Yeah 1/11 was straight up nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That is a monster High coming into the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Its probably time to worry more about a washed up, mangled p.o.s than a cutter Bring back the Bermuda high!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Sunday/Monday thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45548-feb-1-feb-2-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 putting your neck on the line! Better deliver. Sunday/Monday thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45548-feb-1-feb-2-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 so....I was so blown away by two ensemble members (15 day snow totals) from one of those ensembles that can't be shared, that I had to recreate them crudely so they could be shared. Quite a bit of this is from the second storm, day 9ish. Using the laziest statistics possible, this means that most of the region has nearly a 10% chance of receiving 35" of snow over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 so....I was so blown away by two ensemble members (15 day snow totals) from one of those ensembles that can't be shared, that I had to recreate them crudely so they could be shared. Quite a bit of this is from the second storm, day 9ish. Using the laziest statistics possible, this means that most of the region has nearly a 10% chance of receiving 35" of snow over the next 2 weeks. That's actually not at all what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's actually not at all what that means. Yep. Just because two ensemble members show it doesn't mean you can take that as meaning that percentage is the probability. That's probably more like a .001% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 so....I was so blown away by two ensemble members (15 day snow totals) from one of those ensembles that can't be shared, that I had to recreate them crudely so they could be shared. Quite a bit of this is from the second storm, day 9ish. Using the laziest statistics possible, this means that most of the region has nearly a 10% chance of receiving 35" of snow over the next 2 weeks. While I don't think that is what it means, you should post this on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yep. Just because two ensemble members show it doesn't mean you can take that as meaning that percentage is the probability. That's probably more like a .001% chance. it was a joke. of course that's not what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 it was a joke. of course that's not what that means That joke must have gone right over my head then...my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 so....I was so blown away by two ensemble members (15 day snow totals) from one of those ensembles that can't be shared, that I had to recreate them crudely so they could be shared. Quite a bit of this is from the second storm, day 9ish. Using the laziest statistics possible, this means that most of the region has nearly a 10% chance of receiving 35" of snow over the next 2 weeks. Looks like something drawn by BB in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 so....I was so blown away by two ensemble members (15 day snow totals) from one of those ensembles that can't be shared, that I had to recreate them crudely so they could be shared. Quite a bit of this is from the second storm, day 9ish. Using the laziest statistics possible, this means that most of the region has nearly a 10% chance of receiving 35" of snow over the next 2 weeks. If that goes viral we are doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If that goes viral we are doomed. Just what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It really might be the late week storm next week that we should be worrying about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's my storm. It's going to happen. I feel it. It really might be the late week storm next week that we should be worrying about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It misses but who cares at this range, just nice to see a storm coming out of the gulf without a great lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not really relevant, but GFS forms a monster cyclone in the NPAC which becomes a 956mb monster by 231hrs. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That joke must have gone right over my head then...my bad. It was pretty obvious when, right up front, he said "Using the laziest statistics possible..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There's 3 events showing up on the models & ensembles. The first one is the Feb 1-3 clipper like system that could be a solid 1-5" type storm. Then there is a storm a few days later when the baja low comes out. You can see that event on the 192hr GFS. However, there is a 3rd event that Typhoon Tip made a post on in the NE forum. It could coorelate with a nice PNA spike. This 3rd one is showing up on the GFS in the Feb 7-9 range. Active pattern showing up. Will we cash in? Idk, but the threats are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It was pretty obvious when, right up front, he said "Using the laziest statistics possible..."Yeah! I was just trying to help people who can't access the joy of insane illegal throw-me-in-jail snowmaps. But in the future I'll confine that to the banter thread so no one yells at me. Somewhat new to posting on this forum, but have always very much enjoyed it, so sorry if I made a dumb post. Will go back to reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What a crazy GFS run. Starting at 12z Friday morning it doesn't get me above freezing until the afternoon of Feb. 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What a crazy GFS run. Starting at 12z Friday morning it doesn't get me above freezing until the afternoon of Feb. 9th. Touchdown!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Any model showing those temps on Tuesday has some significant issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Any model showing those temps on Tuesday has some significant issue. If we get a foot of snow I could care less about temps verifying. I'm sure the model is taking snow otg into account. New gfs may have a cold bias with digital snowcover. Let's hope we have a chance to test the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If we get a foot of snow I could care less about temps verifying. I'm sure the model is taking snow otg into account. New gfs may have a cold bias with digital snowcover. Let's hope we have a chance to test the possibility Yeah could be that. Interestingly lows the next night at like 40 degrees warmer and look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah could be that. Interestingly lows the next night at like 40 degrees warmer and look fine. It's weird getting to know the new gfs. I think I like it but there's no historical data to think "hmm....last time it had something similar...". I spent a lot of time understanding the old one but that means nothing now. It's easy to assume that those temps have a near zero chance at verifying but getting some sub zeros close to the cities would be pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Days 7 and 8 look interesting on the EURO tonight... coastal low that brings us snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Storm potential for late next week has been there for awhile now. Days 7 and 8 look interesting on the EURO tonight... coastal low that brings us snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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