kurtstack Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ok enjoy your partly cloudy. Plenty of time to improve in the qpf dept. Could just use a little help from the ridge in the west to get this vort to dig and amplify some on its pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The late week storm comes out south of Hatteras, but just keeps moving NNE. The Cape is probably the only place that gets anything meaningful from it. So both events end up well south of where they were at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's actually not a bad overrunning setup. Moisture being ejected from the southern stream and a weak ns vort sliding just under us. Stupid 24 hour maps. It looks like it's holding energy back out west? Or is the southern stream just weaker overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm not even interested in the late week storm. We're inside of 5 days with a storm that is jumping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm not even interested in the late week storm. We're inside of 5 days with a storm that is jumping all over the place. Given that Boston went from nothing to a top 5 storm with about 60 hours notice on the Euro over the weekend, I would say that is the focus for damn sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm not even interested in the late week storm. We're inside of 5 days with a storm that is jumping all over the place. yeah, this one ain't going away.....whether it goes the way we want only time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Given that Boston went from nothing to a top 5 storm within about 60 hours notice on the Euro over the weekend, I would say that is the focus for damn sure. We know less about what to expect right now than we did 24 hours ago. If it ends up a simple 2-4 overrunning type event I would be thrilled. Euro was really close to that. Now the the pv seems to want to wobble around nearby for a while and there would probably be an active ns of weak vorts in a pattern like that. I like cold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Given that Boston went from nothing to a top 5 storm with about 60 hours notice on the Euro over the weekend, I would say that is the focus for damn sure. Related to this post but not necessarily the thread, did anyone check Boston's qpf for their 24" of snow? It was only a hair over 1", so they did it on rates. It was in the mid-teens most of the time, so that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Related to this post but not necessarily the thread, did anyone check Boston's qpf for their 24" of snow? It was only a hair over 1", so they did it on rates. It was in the mid-teens most of the time, so that makes sense.I haven't looked or across the region but has to be erroneosly low even so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Related to this post but not necessarily the thread, did anyone check Boston's qpf for their 24" of snow? It was only a hair over 1", so they did it on rates. It was in the mid-teens most of the time, so that makes sense. I was in Mainsfield MA for the storm (couple burroughs east of RI)...it was the same where I was. I never got into truly heavy blinding snow. The snow growth was terrible. It just snowed forever & was cold. It was like sand falling from the sky.The winds were sweet, but honestly. I enjoyed my NEMO road trip a helluva lot more. One of my favorite winter storm of my life was January 26-27 2011. Got like 10" in 3.5 hours. I'll take heavy snow over sand snow that falls for a day 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Related to this post but not necessarily the thread, did anyone check Boston's qpf for their 24" of snow? It was only a hair over 1", so they did it on rates. It was in the mid-teens most of the time, so that makes sense. Where did you find the qpf numbers? Wouldn't those be some incredibly high ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ASOS has a well-known bias of reporting precip amounts in winter storms that are far too low. It's something to do with the sensors not properly melting the liquid or such. Radar estimates from the BOS area were in the 1.5-2" range. Those are far from perfect too but are probably closer to reality in this case. Related to this post but not necessarily the thread, did anyone check Boston's qpf for their 24" of snow? It was only a hair over 1", so they did it on rates. It was in the mid-teens most of the time, so that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Jma is awesome for next week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can we stop with Boston qpf in this thread. Seriously? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS ensemble mostly out to sea or rain for Feb 2. 12z CMC ensemble still has a lot of coastal tracks, more tightly clustered than the 12z. The op continues to be on the western edge of the spread. There are still some good hits in there, and there is also still a lot of rain. CMC says that if anything happens around Feb 5, it's probably rain. GEFS says there's a better chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ASOS has a well-known bias of reporting precip amounts in winter storms that are far too low. It's something to do with the sensors not properly melting the liquid or such. Radar estimates from the BOS area were in the 1.5-2" range. Those are far from perfect too but are probably closer to reality in this case. wind and powder snow can't help much either. remember DCA had a silly 1.5" for Snowmageddon when it was surrounded by reports with like 1" more. no doubt there was some ratio help but you don't get 2-3' totals off a 1-1.5" nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Jma is awesome for next week storm Which one - the early week one or the late week one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Which one - the early week one or the late week one? Early one. It's a big hit with precip. SLP track is a bit dicey. Euro ensembles jumping on the more suppressed solution vs a cutter/runner. Plenty of acceptable outcomes mixed in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can we stop with Boston qpf in this thread. Seriously? ? This. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This. Who cares People should find it interesting.. it was a heck of a storm. But it is almost NAM extrapolation time. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 People should find it interesting.. it was a heck of a storm. But it is almost NAM extrapolation time. Carry on. At least NAM extrapolation, no matter how terrible, is on topic. I wanna hear more about the quality of the snow crystals in Boston anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At least NAM extrapolation, no matter how terrible, is on topic. I wanna hear more about the quality of the snow crystals in Boston anyway. x2. Mass can break off into the Atlantic for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At least NAM extrapolation, no matter how terrible, is on topic. I wanna hear more about the quality of the snow crystals in Boston anyway. blame mitch since he only knows how to post in one thread at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've only got the NAM out to 51, but I can tell it's gonna be a big hit come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This will come down to now casting again most likely. SREF's all over the place with the exception of some sort of SE Ridge and a major HP to the N/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 blame mitch since he only knows how to post in one thread at a time. I'm working. Do you expect me to spend more than a couple moments on this? lol and I looked at BOX's climo info to get the #; maybe it's too preliminary, but they got the snowfall number correct anyway, sub-thread closed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Is it time to start a Thread Threat for Sunday-Monday... why not have another disappointment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This will come down to now casting again most likely. SREF's all over the place with the exception of some sort of SE Ridge and a major HP to the N/NW. NAM at 84 looks like a nice H nosing into the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Its probably time to worry more about a washed up, mangled p.o.s than a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 NAM at 84 looks like a nice H nosing into the Plains 500mb looks similar to the GFS, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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