PDIII Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At this lead I interpret the model output as "windows of opportunity". I would be worried if it were showing a big hit for Monday. On the other hand the storm for next Thursday looks legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM is doing what we want to happen, but too far north. Primary gets up to Erie/Cleveland. 2-4/3-5 is okay... ofc we want all snow... but I am fine with it right now since it will change every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No shortage of events to track. Could be lot of late nights for the insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM is doing what we want to happen, but too far north. Primary gets up to Erie/Cleveland. It has defined slp circulation moving from kansas to iowa early on. That's not going to do it for us. We need a gfs like solution. At least there's a cad sig and some front end snow. I'll take anything that isn't dry or all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 2-4/3-5 is okay... ofc we want all snow... but I am fine with it right now since it will change every run I dunno. 2-4 immediately washed away by rain isn't my idea of okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM has the ns vort closed off by 96. Worlds apart from the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It has defined slp circulation moving from kansas to iowa early on. That's not going to do it for us. We need a gfs like solution. At least there's a cad sig and some front end snow. I'll take anything that isn't dry or all rain. What would great would be the old fashioned 4-6 thump ending in drizzle so we build a glacier with the cold behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It has defined slp circulation moving from kansas to iowa early on. That's not going to do it for us. We need a gfs like solution. At least there's a cad sig and some front end snow. I'll take anything that isn't dry or all rain. Front end thumps can be productive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At this lead I interpret the model output as "windows of opportunity". I would be worried if it were showing a big hit for Monday. On the other hand the storm for next Thursday looks legit. on the one hand, I agree but reality here says we can find sooooo many ways to squander opportunities that I (personally) am left with little solace over the existence of opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I dunno. 2-4 immediately washed away by rain isn't my idea of okay. It isn't ideal, but it is what we do here.....I prefer it over a 24 hour snowfall that yielded 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nice GFS run days 7-10. Hit and a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 on the one hand, I agree but reality here says we can find sooooo many ways to squander opportunities that I (personally) am left with little solace over the existence of opportunities Gotta stay strong. This is it now. 3-4 weeks of prime time. Something will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nice GFS run days 7-10. Hit and a near miss.Gotta do something soon. In another 10 days we're staring down the end of the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Gotta do something soon. In another 10 days we're staring down the end of the sweet spot. to consider this area even has a "sweet spot" time-wise for snow makes me chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 When was the last time the GGEM verified at this range with a solution we liked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Front end thumps can be productive Other than 12/14/03, can you remember any other real thumps that got washed away by rain in the same storm? Almost always here, it's front end thump to drizzle or a non-event (coating to touch of ice to rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Front end thumps can be productive Yep, and I'll take anything. I can fully enjoy snow falling and accumulating knowing full well it may get washed down the drain. At least I won't have to shovel. When I said won't do it for us I mean an all snow event. That's what we're all hoping for even if being irrational is in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not only has the GEFS trended much more assertive with the northern stream/PV but it is actually more amplified/colder and a bit slower with the trough when compared with the op. So we know this is a legit ensemble signal to lean toward a dominate northern branch....and just like that, the inland runner scenario became less likely today per the GFS suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Other than 12/14/03, can you remember any other real thumps that got washed away by rain in the same storm? Almost always here, it's front end thump to drizzle or a non-event (coating to touch of ice to rain). yes...it usually dries out after the switch...I think 1/17/08 was pretty much a disaster...but they aren't that common...you retain the snow pack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM is a little late with the cold air in next weeks threat (Thursday-Friday), but the threat is there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ukie looks great IMHO at hr. 120 with the limited maps. Hope Euro is similar I need to see the 108 panel to see where that low tracks... its a lil close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 My 2 cents... I still like this period, its not an A+ pattern, maybe more of a B but it has potential. Looks like we have at least 3 chances to score next week. What I like...EPO continues to send cold into the CONUS and the STJ is going to get active after the SOI tanking. That means we will have cold around, highs lurking, and gulf systems getting thrown at us. I will take my chances with that setup. What I don't like... we have a decent NAO early on then it seems to want to go back into positive territory. That means we need to get a little lucky with timing up the waves and the cold. Phase too soon and it cuts, too late and its OTS. Still give me enough chances with gulf systems and cold in place and I will go with that pattern. I think the first system has a shot but the problem for me is the PNA ridge is being knocked down at just the wrong time. So we have a decent NAO but lose the PNA. That might be why the storm either cuts or is having trouble amping where we want it. The PNA may be flattening the trough in the east and making it hard for that storm to be an amplified coastal. Might be either an inland runner or a POS strung out storm. I like the next two chances even better. Yea we lose the NAO but is not really an ideal NAO anyways and we get the PNA ridge back. To me that might do us more good. Give me 2 gulf systems attacking cold with a good trough axis and screw the NAO we have a shot. Odds aren't good we get hit by every one of these but I think we can score one decent flush hit and that is all i want at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Front end thumps can be productive Agreed. Obviously I have an advantage based on location. The GGEM is kinda showing what I was talking about earlier. It has a 1032 HP out in front of the storm. Builds the cold air in just in time for a decent thump. We will see rain then dry up quickly at the end. But as depicted. Its a nice hit for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's definitely nice to hear the gefs is moving away from the cutter idea. Pattern suggesting a miller b which can perform decently depending on the details of the transfer which will probably be a bumpy ride on the op models unto we get closer to game time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Other than 12/14/03, can you remember any other real thumps that got washed away by rain in the same storm? Almost always here, it's front end thump to drizzle or a non-event (coating to touch of ice to rain). There was one in the 90's if I recall that started beautifully, but once the coastal blew up, a SE wind warmed the column down to the surface. I think it was a December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Sign me up for a front end 2-4 then snizzle over a miller b lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Gotta do something soon. In another 10 days we're staring down the end of the sweet spot. In 3 days it's the start of sun-angle season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No amp and phasing early on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is at Hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Today is all about the polar vortex coming down and saying "gtfo" to the inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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