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February mid to long range threats discussion


Ji

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We need the hp in place over the gl ahead of the low. If the hp can move out in front of the storm so we can get some cold air entrenched. At the very least we would see a nice front end thump then go over to rain. I am having a hard time understanding why the model is not showing a jumper with that setup? A jumper could actually work out to our advantage with an apps runner. Instead of snow to rain. We could go snow to dry slot.

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This Sunday is our storm. Probably the best I've felt about a situation to date. Then again...the Boston HECS was our storm too, so....

My many years of reading the fine analysis in this forum has taught me one thing: if I see "all we need is ..." or "throw it out" or "that can't be right" well it ain't gonna happen.
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We need the hp in place over the gl ahead of the low. If the hp can move out in front of the storm so we can get some cold air entrenched. At the very least we would see a nice front end thump then go over to rain. I am having a hard time understanding why the model is not showing a jumper with that setup? A jumper could actually work out to our advantage with an apps runner. Instead of snow to rain. We could go snow to dry slot.

The 0z euro did jump almost due east of our latitude.

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Considering how things changed wrt how they looked on the models with this last storm....especially the euro.....I'm not sure its a good use of ones time to be getting too worried about the changes after each run. It's fun to follow, but we won't have a better handle on this for a few more days. On the bright side, there's a system on Sunday/Monday to track along with one later in the week. Plenty of chances.

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Euro ens is south. Takes the low across nc/va beach area.

But if you look at the individual members there are more miller b storms than miller As.   I was kind of excited by teh eman until I looked at the stamps.  They better than yesterday at this time as there are not many now taking it into the lakes but a lot are taking it into KY or OH before jumping east. 

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The idea of at least partial phasing in the Central US is becoming likely; so, this at best can be a jumper scenario. However, that doesn't mean we are out of the game, should proper confluence hold in SE Canada. A lot is riding on Thursday-Friday's "clipper" bomb off New England and how it interacts with the polar vortex. If these two cannot sustain the confluence, a change to rain or all rain is most likely. I can tell you that ensemble mean trends from the ECMWF support a deeper SE Canadian anomaly and a more eastward ridge out in the western US. Both of these things help in the cold/snow department. The 6z GEFS trends were nearly opposite with no noticeable shift in the ridge and a weaker SE Canadian anomaly (more separation from PV too).

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The idea of at least partial phasing in the Central US is becoming likely; so, this at best can be a jumper scenario. However, that doesn't mean we are out of the game, should proper confluence hold in SE Canada. A lot is riding on Thursday-Friday's "clipper" bomb off New England and how it interacts with the polar vortex. If these two cannot sustain the confluence, a change to rain or all rain is most likely. I can tell you that ensemble mean trends from the ECMWF support a deeper SE Canadian anomaly and a more eastward ridge out in the western US. Both of these things help in the cold/snow department. The 6z GEFS trends were nearly opposite with no noticeable shift in the ridge and a weaker SE Canadian anomaly (more separation from PV too).

I should point out that the GEFS trends at 00z, when EPS trends were done, were more in-line with ECMWF. However, the GEFS did amplify the PNA more, which helped in the C USA phasing.

Long story short...I don't know. :P

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I should point out that the GEFS trends at 00z, when EPS trends were done, were more in-line with ECMWF. However, the GEFS did amplify the PNA more, which helped in the C USA phasing.

Long story short...I don't know. :P

Lol. You know more than most. But point taken about what guidance says after the clipper.

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Genuinely cold this morning, supposed to be even colder Saturday morning in wake of the clipper to the north, then potential rain on Monday, then back to bitter cold next week thereafter?

 

If it goes down like that, whole chunks of this forum might run amuck. Me as well.

if memory serves me, that's what we got over and over in November/December. Anomalous cold (and dry) with a low probability storm potential 7+ days out....unblocked high moves off coast toward bermuda....rain (often from a nicely tracked coastal but also from a couple app runners and at least one Santabomb)....slightly anomalous cold moves back in...rinse...repeat....

 

I'm trying to think if there's a more frustrating winter pattern than that....other than just zonal flow and SLIGHTLY warm temps.

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Lol. You know more than most. But point taken about what guidance says after the clipper.

I just posted this over in the Banter Thread. I'll paste it here since it applies:

"I won't lie to you; I have seen better 50-50/-NAO setups. The reality is: thumb ridge projections into Greenland with a clipper bomb being stretched out with the PV west is not ideal. That can easily lose and lead to widespread diffluence. The good news is that there's a boat load of Arctic Air up there and the stratospheric stuff supports that PV coming SE. From that point on, it's about lucky timing.

I've said it before: this is not a winter to get cute. And those that have gotten cute have been getting beat up left and right...whether it is in the LR (making bold proclaimations) or SR (predicting record snow). "

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All you can ask for 5 days out is a reasonable chance. You would think with all these clippers and storms we would have a better 50/50 low set up.

They did have an effect. Remember, it's all relative. This period of storm activity, along with the PV displacement to Siberia, has allowed a super NAO period to be dropped down to neutral/weakly negative. That's the best you're going to do this winter.

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They did have an effect. Remember, it's all relative. This period of storm activity, along with the PV displacement to Siberia, has allowed a super NAO period to be dropped down to neutral/weakly negative. That's the best you're going to do this winter.

Well at least we remain in the game so I stay positive. Looks like there's no shortage of arctic air. Thanks for the clarification.

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whew, I thought I wasn't crazy

Required disclaimer:  Nobody should be using the NAM for anything but discussion and entertainment purposes and extrapolating is even worse...but since it was brought up, I thought the NAM looked pretty damn good if you wanna go that route.  Looks like it's gonna miss the partial phase and the confluence/clipper looked more robust.

 

This should probably be in banter.  #$$#% extrapolating the NAM

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I counted 9 EPS members with 9"+ of snowmap for most of this thread. As far as low locations go....pretty big spread for 5 days out. everything from app runners to suppressed weaklings (and one big storm for the southeast)

The majority of the members with good hits are ohv-delmarva jumpers. We have plenty of experience with those and results are mixed.

I suppose if it's going to go down like that, at the very least we do have more of a cad signal than we did just 24 hours ago. Favored spots to the west would have the better chance but the cities could score on the front as well. It's a lot less likely for us to score with redevelopment but not unheard of.

This is another tricky marginal setup but not an uncommon one like the crazy clipper miller b that just rolled through.

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Gotta get that clipper to bomb and be a big deal on Friday/Sat.   This is the one time that I'm cheering on New England and hope they get destroyed again with this next clipper.

 

Agreed. I don't want it digging south of us - I want to it to scoot along to the north, get up there, and bomb out, clearing the field for the system behind it.

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