stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Me too, but will we like bedtime? 0z runs will be a NYC HECS NO HECS disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On both the 12z CMC and 18z GFS, there is at least some High pressure to the north of the GL. Just the fact that there is not a low in that area is a win at this point. Ridging in SE is moving off. Not the best setup, but doable. And the look could get better with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 After we get hit by storms 1 and 2, do we root for our southeastern friends or hope for a northward trend and a trifecta? One way to separate fantasy from reality is to look for a GLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 After we get hit by storms 1 and 2, do we root for our southeastern friends or hope for a northward trend and a trifecta? One way to separate fantasy from reality is to look for a GLL. If we get two snowstorms in 1 week, I will gladly give GA/SC/NC/Southern VA the third storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 there's our shot for Sunday, right on that NAO graph couldn't be plainer than the noses on our faces ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 there's our shot for Sunday, right on that NAO graph couldn't be plainer than the noses on our faces ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Calling that a window of opportunity would be an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 After we get hit by storms 1 and 2, do we root for our southeastern friends or hope for a northward trend and a trifecta? One way to separate fantasy from reality is to look for a GLL. Sharing is not caring with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Most of us would be at or above climo if it went down like this. climo.JPG I was gonna post this earlier. That would put me at climo with 5 good snow weeks left for out here. I think we all would take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nice to see the GFS draw everyone in so that our hopes can be crushed later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nice to see the GFS draw everyone in so that our hopes can be crushed later. Until we get a block, I'm keeping my expectations at Leesburg04 levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 there's our shot for Sunday, right on that NAO graph couldn't be plainer than the noses on our faces ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png shame the Pna seems to want to come down at the exact time the nao does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The trend on the last four runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Until we get a block, I'm keeping my expectations at Leesburg04 levels #leesburgrule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 shame the Pna seems to want to come down at the exact time the nao does. yeah, I saw that I wondered why of all times when it is so positive the rest of the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 fwiw, NAM has BWI bottoming out at 8.9F Saturday morning, a short 30 hours before GFS says it's snowing EDIT: To be fair, 500mb-wise, the northern stream vort is stronger than on the GFS but the 50/50 low (of sorts) closes nicely. I mention this only because I didn't want anyone to get the impression I really am a weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Mitch, overall h5 is similar to the 18z gfs run. Still have hp nosing into the Dakotas over top of the vort. Nice downhill look in the upper levels in the east. Of course merely just a light disco because you know how I feel about the nam beyond 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Mitch, overall h5 is similar to the 18z gfs run. Still have hp nosing into the Dakotas over top of the vort. Nice downhill look in the upper levels in the east. Of course merely just a light disco because you know how I feel about the nam beyond 48. I think this pretty much sums it up, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I like the 1040+ H nosing into the Upper Midwest at hr 105... and no stupid GLL in sight. This should be a good run for us after seeing hr 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is a little more amped. Let's see if that H in the right place (SE Quebec) will hold that low at bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Light snow at DCA hr 123 (10pm Sun night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 we need the 18z to run at 6z, 12z, and 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ugh...punching through that H Debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Meh... 998 in KY at 129... I am not liking that the H doesn't seem to be doing much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's a deep bomb crawling up the apps on this run. Who woulda guessed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow... storms Monday afternoon with that 980s low in W PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow... storms Monday afternoon with that 980s low in W PA? The pattern is really good...I'm gonna go ahead and say we won't have a 984mb low over Scranton next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Too much amp in front of the vort and no confluence. Pv in Canada is too far west to help. At least we lost the low tracking through the Midwest/ohv for 2 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Throw it out. Obama accidentally ran the old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The pattern is really good...I'm gonna go ahead and say we won't have a 984mb low over Scranton next Monday Yup, agreed. Not too worried about this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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