Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Hmmm...I'm kinda pissed the 3rd coastal on the 7th only grazes us...still time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 1 thing I like about the GFS is that yesterday it had 2 runs that showed warmth and the end, and then they were gone Euro had the warmth on 1, maybe 2, but it too has changed I guess the cold stays, just like the CFS2 had for JAN and continues to advertise for FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Most of us would be at or above climo if it went down like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Most of us would be at or above climo if it went down like this. climo.JPG not that different from the 12Z GGEM really (out to 240 hrs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Most of us would be at or above climo if it went down like this. climo.JPG Man, if it went down like that I'd have close to 20" on the season, which would be slightly above average (1-2" above). Honestly, if half of that map verified I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 funny how the GGEM (and to a lesser extent the GFS) snow map matches almost identically the area of the east coast that the CFS2 is advertising as normal precip while surrounded by BN precip...just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Me too, but will we like bedtime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Me too, but will we like bedtime? Probably not. If 0z drops the midwest low i would be happy regardless of the evolution it shows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS has the d8-9 miller A. A lot of euro members had that as well. Just lock this run up and call it a winter. I think more members than last night's run just eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Me too, but will we like bedtime? weenies live for the moment Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 nice overrunning event monday and then a bigger one next thursday. fun run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 weenies live for the moment Wes Truth. I could see the favorable changed @ h5 pretty early with the gfs run. Around the 96 panel it was pretty obvious the ns vort was weaker and strong hp was nosing down into the dakotas. Then when sprawling hp showed up around the lakes @ 114 I knew it was going to be a good run. 96-114 isn't long range. But one run is nothing more than an idea. Long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is still looking like our best window this winter with the neutral to -nao and a nice shortwave digging and picking up gulf moisture. I sure hope the GFS is right about the look in Greenland and East Canada with the vortices trapped beneath the Greenland ridge - that might be just enough of a block to keep majority of the area all snow and the low from gaining too much latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Total weenie run from the GFS, no rain in the next ten days and 12-20" of Snow in the area. New York and Boston get some Light Rain on Friday and we outdo both in snowfall. All looks well for now. Let's see how well the new GFS is against infEURiOr. But for real though we need to see more runs like this to buy snowy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't remember a happy hour this winter that showed so much promise. Add some super cold to the mix and this could be a memorable February. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is still looking like our best window this winter with the neutral to -nao and a nice shortwave digging and picking up gulf moisture. I sure hope the GFS is right about the look in Greenland and East Canada with the vortices trapped beneath the Greenland ridge - that might be just enough of a block to keep majority of the area all snow and the low from gaining too much latitude. It's the window that many were honking or at least suggesting would be pretty favorable awhile back. Now, let's see if we can produce something good out of it. I just don't want to see the GFS go back to retracting the cold air look like it appeared to do over this past weekend, but instead hope it's keying in on what is a favorable time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's the window that many were honking or at least suggesting would be pretty favorable awhile back. Now, let's see if we can produce something good out of it. I just don't want to see the GFS go back to retracting the cold air look like it appeared to do over this past weekend, but instead hope it's keying in on what is a favorable time frame. Yep GFS has pretty much been showing it in some form or fashion since it was about 384 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The second storm is even bigger. Combined totals....oh man...we're allowed to dream and enjoy for at least 6 hours. boom-.JPG I know it's fantasy land right now, but this deserves a !! That 18Z run was about as good a one as I've seen from gate-to-gate this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 when they both fail I'm pulling this post back up and suing you for false advertising and intentional infliction of emotional weenie distress That's just some funny stuff....thanks for the chuckle. If this Happy Hour run verfies...I'll ride my snowmobile down..pick you both up and take you to a bar for a drink!! I suggest you call it the "Happy Hour Storm". Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Here we go again, three in a row... Of three events, it's not unreasonable to assume one or two will involve plain rain at some point. I think the first and third are most likely to end up doing so. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If you liked the 18z gfs op run, do not look at 18z ensembles. Loaded up with midwest lows and n tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If you liked the 18z gfs op run, do not look at 18z ensembles. Loaded up with midwest lows and n tracks. Too late Hopefully 18z OP happiness gets added to the 00z OP runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lol...you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Not often can you tell a storm potential just from a 200mb map, That looks classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Too late Hopefully 18z OP happiness gets added to the 00z OP runs So the bar already ran out of beer? That was fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I won't get sucked in. I won't get sucked in. I won't get sucked in. I'm in. That is one good looking period of winter. Hopefully the GLL doesn't come back. It's disappearance is key. Oops. Just saw the ensembles. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If you liked the 18z gfs op run, do not look at 18z ensembles. Loaded up with midwest lows and n tracks. Are they all pretty much craptastic, or are there some good ones in there too? Even the 12Z ensembles had some very nice looks in there, even though the ops run was bleah. Don't like seeing the 18Z ops run as an outlier now in this kind of instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If you liked the 18z gfs op run, do not look at 18z ensembles. Loaded up with midwest lows and n tracks.Three of those have lows that are in sw Minnesota and the lows originat in the Dakotas and Montana...not exactly a cutter. One is a whiff to the south. A few look like OV lows that could produce mixed events. At least a third give us a chance at accum snow. Not all that bad if you ask me.I know you know this as well....timing is different, so we can't just look at one panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 we're <120 hrs. from snow falling on the GFS and days before that when the players will have taken their place on the field that will ultimately determine the outcome, so gimme' the higher resolution operational any day ensembles are for hope to avoid weenie suicides at this range, and we don't need hope with the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Three of those have lows that are in sw Minnesota and the lows originat in the Dakotas and Montana...not exactly a cutter. One is a whiff to the south. A few look like OV lows that could produce mixed events. At least a third give us a chance at accum snow. Not all that bad if you ask me. I know you know this as well....timing is different, so we can't just look at one panel. I'm only interested in a clean south track and hp to the north. There were 2-3 of those. . The airmass is going to be stale by the time the storm approaches. Without fresh hp the cities are going to struggle bad. Your area holds longer with nw tracks but this one in particular is pretty bad for all areas with a nw track. No cad. The 18z mean was slightly better than 12z with hp to the north so that was an improvement but MSLP plots still show lp anomaly pushing into OH. We really need that to go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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