WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm just waiting for Bob to come in and tell us the euro ens is east of the op and looks good for a ma snowstorm. Then Ji can come in with great news about the control run and the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Recap from 12z: Navy: mostly snow but don't have detailed midlevel/surface panels (best solution but second worst model next to the euro) GEM: snow to mix to snow ( second best solution) GFS: light snow to rain Ukie; light snow to rain (very similar to the gfs) Euro: raintown (but this model apparently really sucks) What they all have in common is hp near bermuda. And that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I like this storm too. I don't how there isn't at least a decent period of frozen on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm just waiting for Bob to come in and tell us the euro ens is east of the op and looks good for a ma snowstorm. Then Ji can come in with great news about the control run and the JMA JMA is suppressed and it looks like its going to deliver a Miller A by hour 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Recap from 12z: Navy: mostly snow but don't have detailed midlevel/surface panels (best solution but second worst model next to the euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We don't want what the gfs and ggem ops are currently showing. Slp tracking into OH never works in these parts. At least some cold air is in place. A decent front end thump to rain wouldnt be the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i feel pretty good about this one. I think the Euro is wrong I am with you... I have been tracking this one, since before our first Threat last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At least some cold air is in place. A decent front end thump to rain wouldnt be the end of the world. The difference in your locale to those of us in the beltway on that kind of set-up and opinion is stark. You all out there do really well in front end thump - we tend to be more to the quick to rain side of things. I am stalking one where we are snow from the jump and stay such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At least some cold air is in place. A decent front end thump to rain wouldnt be the end of the world. With a high over bermuda there won't be a decent front end thump. We need the low to track below us or the midlevels are toast quickly because there's is no cad sig. Airmass is stale with no high to the north. Euro ens mslp track is a bit east of the op but from what I can tell it's the same reason the GEFS look better. There are 2 camps on the euro as well. Big cluster tracks into the ohv but there are enough that don't to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 12z Canadian ensembles have more rainy solutions than they did at 00z. For both the GEFS and Canadian ensembles, the op run takes a more southern / coastal track than the control run. An optimistic way to look at this is that as you go to higher resolution, the more southern track becomes favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 With a high over bermuda there won't be a decent front end thump. We need the low to track below us or the midlevels are toast quickly because there's is no cad sig. Airmass is stale with no high to the north. Euro ens mslp track is a bit east of the op but from what I can tell it's the same reason the GEFS look better. There are 2 camps on the euro as well. Big cluster tracks into the ohv but there are enough that don't to keep an eye on it. Yeah the mean is definitely somewhat east...but for the weird reasons you mention. Most of the solutions that bring the low out faster tend to be too far inland. Looks like most of the best hits send the low out of the gulf much slower, which makes sense. 12-18 hours more to get rid of that bermuda high and bring the low up the coast in tandem with the beginnings of the cold air out of canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah the mean is definitely somewhat east...but for the weird reasons you mention. Most of the solutions that bring the low out faster tend to be too far inland. Looks like most of the best hits send the low out of the gulf much slower, which makes sense. 12-18 hours more to get rid of that bermuda high and bring the low up the coast in tandem with the beginnings of the cold air out of canada... Check out d8-9 mean and members. A whole bunch bring up a juicy low out of the gulf. Couldn't imagine cold being a problem in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 With a high over bermuda there won't be a decent front end thump. We need the low to track below us or the midlevels are toast quickly because there's is no cad sig. Airmass is stale with no high to the north. Euro ens mslp track is a bit east of the op but from what I can tell it's the same reason the GEFS look better. There are 2 camps on the euro as well. Big cluster tracks into the ohv but there are enough that don't to keep an eye on it. That pretty much what I say in my latest article. I favor the northerly track a bit but it's not a done deal. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/27/two-more-chances-for-a-wintry-mix-this-week-late-thursday-and-sunday-snow-potential-if Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That pretty much what I say in my latest article. I favor the northerly track a bit but it's not a done deal. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/27/two-more-chances-for-a-wintry-mix-this-week-late-thursday-and-sunday-snow-potential-if Nice article Wes. I sure does look like a n track is favored. I suppose some of it hinges on the clipper before it. It does develop into a strong storm once it hits the ocean and moves north. At least there appears to be 2 camps with the globals and one of which would produce something around here. Just gotta hug that knowing the risk of a n track is very much in place. Still plenty of time for shifts one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Winter's just about over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Winter's just about over for us. Nah, we get big snow in March now. It's the new regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Winter's just about over for us.Long range torch?Wouldn't surprise me... it's been a while since we hit 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I thought February was going to be rockin? Maybe April will.....with 80s and 90s. Been awhile since we really torched in spring or so it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Winter's just about over for us. AGW-boosted wavelengths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we continue to get clippers jumping to the coast I think we will continue to get what we just got. Event before this one was a perfectly organized rain storm moving over Atlanta and toward us but just no cold air. Pretty hard to get that track and not be a snow maker and if we can get that track again I think it will be a snowmaker. Can we get rid of the Phillipine whore ads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lets just cancel the rest of winter and reset for a rocking 2015-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS is looking better at 117 hours vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lets just cancel the rest of winter and reset for a rocking 2015-2016 You'll regret this post once the GFS finishes running. Big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You'll regret this post once the GFS finishes running. Big changes. GMTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS is looking better at 117 hours vs 12z. If you mean no lp in the midwest and 1032 hp draped across the lakes then I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You'll regret this post once the GFS finishes running. Big changes. I'm at 126. There's a 1032 High where for us, normally there's a #$#%$ GL low. If that storm down south charges into and through that, I'm going to start saying screw the GFS along with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If you mean no lp in the midwest and 1032 hp draped across the lakes then I agree. Gotta remember. Show all the scenarios then come evaluation and funding time-present the one that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm at 126. There's a 1032 High where for us, normally there's a #$#%$ GL low. If that storm down south charges into and through that, I'm going to start saying screw the GFS along with the Euro. The clipper closed off and crawled away and the ns vort was weaker. I saw it early on. Better confluence and no low in the midwest is key on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And there you have it, GFS is a flush hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 damn. We get smoked. Happy hour is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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