famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm hearing 15:1 ratios, what do you think Ray? Sent from my iPhone Ratios will tend to get knocked down by the wind (unless you clear your snowboard and leave it in a hole of snow). Best ratios are in light wind events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ratios will tend to get knocked down by the wind (unless you clear your snowboard and leave it in a hole of snow). Best ratios are in light wind events. Won't eastern pa be spared the heaviest winds? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Be ware the Miller B cut-off. It will be deadly. Last three runs of the EC has shifted the bullseye from southern New England to central NJ to NYC. Where will it be next run? Where will the sharp cut-off end up? Remember boxing day... 5 inches in western NJ to 25" in NYC. Is the atmospheric setup similar to that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think I'll agree to disagree with Mount Holly on the reasonable worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Be ware the Miller B cut-off. It will be deadly. Last three runs of the EC has shifted the bullseye from southern New England to central NJ to NYC. Where will it be next run? Where will the sharp cut-off end up? Remember boxing day... 5 inches in western NJ to 25" in NYC. You are really trying to kill dreams tonight. Looks like good snow back as far as york county. I believe all of the philly metro gets slammed. more east, less west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think I'll agree to disagree with Mount Holly on the reasonable worst case scenario That was produced well before the 0z runs... before the 18z runs in fact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That was produced well before the 0z runs... before the 18z runs in fact... I'm aware, but even so, a bit too conservative IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm aware, but even so, a bit too conservative IMO As others have said... Miller B's have a tendency to bust hard... and we STILL don't have model agreement after 0z... The difference between the NAM and EURO is insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As others have said... Miller B's have a tendency to bust hard... and we STILL don't have model agreement after 0z... The difference between the NAM and EURO is insane.. I would put almost 0 weight in the NAM at this point. The Euro, GFS, and CMC all show hits for the region, that's enough consensus for me. Obviously there is a risk of a bust with this storm, but you have to say the odds are at least 50:50 for a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Be ware the Miller B cut-off. It will be deadly. Last three runs of the EC has shifted the bullseye from southern New England to central NJ to NYC. Where will it be next run? Where will the sharp cut-off end up? Remember boxing day... 5 inches in western NJ to 25" in NYC. Let's be fair, the bulls-eye shifted maybe 50 miles from 12z to current run. The idea is nearly identical and for most, assuming this pans out, an all-time great event for this forum and NYC. (I may change my user name to "convective feedback"!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I would put almost 0 weight in the NAM at this point. The Euro, GFS, and CMC all show hits for the region, that's enough consensus for me. Obviously there is a risk of a bust with this storm, but you have to say the odds are at least 50:50 for a hit. Problem is 50/50 odds is not good when you have a little more then a day to get prepared... Some municipalities here in NJ are notoriously bad with prep for snowstorms esp. around here. If Mt. Holly continues to waffle (and they probably should given lack of total model agreement), then the areas here will not be able to prepare for a blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As others have said... Miller B's have a tendency to bust hard... and we STILL don't have model agreement after 0z... The difference between the NAM and EURO is insane.. Why would you put the NAM and euro in the same sentence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Agree with the concerns about cut-off west. We all have bad memories from 2001, BDB (to an extent) and 2/25/10. I also get concerns with the Miller B suck zone. But I'm feeling pretty confident this is a good if not great snow event in Philly metro. 1. This isn't your Delmarva transfer Miller B scenario. It's exiting far enough south to allow for strengthening on almost all of the models 2. We still get the clipper appetizer on all models which is a nice start 3. As depicted on euro/GFS this basically slows down enough to make this a long duration event on the backside which is a classic feature of many of our biggest storms. 4. Yesterday we were just expecting a 1-2 inch clipper so everything else is gravy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Be ware the Miller B cut-off. It will be deadly. Last three runs of the EC has shifted the bullseye from southern New England to central NJ to NYC. Where will it be next run? Where will the sharp cut-off end up? Remember boxing day... 5 inches in western NJ to 25" in NYC. Wasn't March 2001 an example of this too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why would you put the NAM and euro in the same sentence? Well we might discount the NAM but Mt. Holly in their afternoon discussion seemed to not discount it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well we might discount the NAM but Mt. Holly in their afternoon discussion seemed to not discount it.... They should. Many want to downplay this threat because it is so anomalous. Just going by history, the odds of there being 2' from TTN to NYC is very, VERY small. But based on the models at 12z today, there was a big signal. Of course, the setup is delicate and there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere, but the idea that we should discount the euro because the NAM (or even the GFS) does not agree, when dealing with an east coast storm (the euros wheelhouse), that was not sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Be ware the Miller B cut-off. It will be deadly. Last three runs of the EC has shifted the bullseye from southern New England to central NJ to NYC. Where will it be next run? Where will the sharp cut-off end up? Remember boxing day... 5 inches in western NJ to 25" in NYC. Valid point, since storms rarely show a complete cutoff like this so early in the game. And usually when they do, they end up cutting off earlier. A cutoff just off the jersey coast would be devastating. I need my NAM to feel more confidence on this though....since it was the first to get our last storm right. New NAM in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Anyone got the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Valid point, since storms rarely show a complete cutoff like this so early in the game. And usually when they do, they end up cutting off earlier. A cutoff just off the jersey coast would be devastating. I need my NAM to feel more confidence on this though....since it was the first to get our last storm right. New NAM in less than an hour. I may need toothpicks on my eyelids to see this...holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 he said toothpicks.. NAM is already deeper with significantly more precip at 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 about 50 miles slower at 21 hours compared to previous run. so far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is still about a 100 miles further east than GFS at 18 hours. strange.. The east thing is a problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The east thing is a problem.. I screwed up and was using 0z gfs timeframe...tried to delete that post, but couldn't. NAM looks just a little faster than GFS at 33. But otherwise looks very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry not a downer but rather a realist looking at the current pattern and the realization we are tangling with a Miller B storm here...my thoughts truly think we know much much better by 12z tomorrow that cut off has very concerned in my opinion with the NAO+ no true blocking think the 15-25" stuff is around NYC and that sharp cut off is around PHL....it's a Miller B typically you need that blocking to slow this down. what in the NAO has changed from our storm that moved through fast on Friday night? The progressive flow of this pattern has me concerned...we will now truly put my -NAO theory in this pattern to the test...notice I said this pattern and not historically. From coastal DC 2" Baltimore 2-4" Delco 5-7" PHL 5-8" Bensalem 6-12" TTN 8-12" NYC 15"+ Boston 24" as I see it now fear the models back offe super concerned in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry not a downe but rather a realist looking at the current pattern and the realization we are tangling with a Miller B storm here...my thoughts truly think we know much much better by 12z tomorrow that cut off has me super concerned in this pattern.... I agree, but this type of storm could be once in a lifetime. every little detail counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I agree, but this type of storm could be once in a lifetime. every little detail counts. Totally want this storm! One thing is for sure it's better than where we have been at least down here around the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Anyone got the Euro ensembles? Absolutely crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM not really budging. also getting in its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM not really budging. also getting in its range. yup, now I gotta go to sleep PO'd...waiting for 12z. I really don't even care what GFS shows. NAM needs to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yup, now I gotta go to sleep PO'd...waiting for 12z. I really don't even care what GFS shows. NAM needs to show it. well if every other model shows a big storm tomorrow i won't be so worried, but as of now, the NAM's persistence is a little concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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