GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro still looks decent for PHL area, obviously better as you go east, looks like NYC to BOS are getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Low track is further north and east than 12Z. Still a big hit... not as big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Low track is further north and east than 12Z. Still a big hit... not as big. Trenton on north looks nice. Plane ticket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Trenton on north looks nice. Plane ticket? work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Low track is further north and east than 12Z. Still a big hit... not as big. YUP, eyeballing it im guessing about 10-12 for PHL, maybe 15 for TTN, but that is a guesstimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Low track is further north and east than 12Z. Still a big hit... not as big. I don't think anyone expected to be as good...at least I didn't. Still good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 From NE forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 From Superstorm in NYC thread: I thought the ECMWF couldn't get any better, but I don't think I've been so wrong. 2.5" of QPF in Bergen county 72 hour roundup NYC: 2.3" HPN: 2.5" TTN: 2.3" JFK: 2.3" MTK: 2.2" PHL: 1.8" BDR: 2.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 By snow maps on 10:1 ratio. ABE: 11" PHL: 15" NYC: 24" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 YUP, eyeballing it im guessing about 10-12 for PHL, maybe 15 for TTN, but that is a guesstimate. QPF numbers argue more like 12-16 and 16-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 From NE forum Man...what would it take just for 25 miles further west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 By snow maps on 10:1 ratio. ABE: 11" PHL: 15" NYC: 24" Big hit. Ask yourself how many double digit storms does Philly get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 From Superstorm in NYC thread: I thought the ECMWF couldn't get any better, but I don't think I've been so wrong. 2.5" of QPF in Bergen county 72 hour roundup NYC: 2.3" HPN: 2.5" TTN: 2.3" JFK: 2.3" MTK: 2.2" PHL: 1.8" BDR: 2.2" That number looks a little high for PHL to me, looks more like 1.4ish, which would still be a big coupe of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Low track is further north and east than 12Z. Still a big hit... not as big. It's bigger... just for folks in NYC and NE... man if this verifies the whole NE corridor is getting shut down for a week or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Id say with better ratios pretty solid 12-16 for LV, 16-20 PHL. Think lehigh valley should be worried that cutoff is close, looks like Boxing Day cutoffs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's bigger... just for folks in NYC and NE... man if this verifies the whole NE corridor is getting shut down for a week or more... Its bigger there because the bullseye over NJ shifted northeast with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That number looks a little high for PHL to me, looks more like 1.4ish, which would still be a big coupe of course. Yeah my source has somewhat lower numbers by 0.2 or so compared to those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man...what would it take just for 25 miles further west... Yeah, a little jog west would help. Still time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro staying strong 3 runs in a row with a PHL-NE bomb. I know NAM is out of its best range, but the differences are staggering. An encouraging sign for those in the Euro camp is the steps that the GFS has taken towards a bigger solution today. I'd love to see the UKMET come on board. Tomorrow should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What are we talking in terms of ratios here? 12:1 a good bet maybe a tad higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah my source has somewhat lower numbers by 0.2 or so compared to those. I'm in Hamilton, not far from your parents in Ewing - the Euro verbatim shows 16" with 10:1 ratios, I'm thinking 12-15:1 ratios can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm hearing 15:1 ratios, what do you think Ray? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is it me but when quoting someone their name doesn't show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 folks down playing this event in philly, need a wake up call. You don't get storms like this often. 10-18 inches looks good using the euro model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm hearing 15:1 ratios, what do you think Ray? Sent from my iPhone Not Ray but would think higher than 10:1.....12:1 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think we all expected that bullseye to shift NE and would all be over joyed by the EuroWx maps amounts 24" mark kissing northeast Philly and southern Bucks. But the SW quadrants of Miller B's are full of heartbreak. 12z tomorrow should tell the tale with final sampling on the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm hearing 15:1 ratios, what do you think Ray? Sent from my iPhone between 10-12:1 much more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think we all expected that bullseye to shift NE and would all be over joyed by the EuroWx maps amounts 24" mark kissing northeast Philly and southern Bucks. But the SW quadrants of Miller B's are full of heartbreak. 12z tomorrow should tell the tale with final sampling on the West Coast. And I'm already expecting just enough bump easy to bump us out of it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Be ware the Miller B cut-off. It will be deadly. Last three runs of the EC has shifted the bullseye from southern New England to central NJ to NYC. Where will it be next run? Where will the sharp cut-off end up? Remember boxing day... 5 inches in western NJ to 25" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think we all expected that bullseye to shift NE and would all be over joyed by the EuroWx maps amounts 24" mark kissing northeast Philly and southern Bucks. But the SW quadrants of Miller B's are full of heartbreak. 12z tomorrow should tell the tale with final sampling on the West Coast. This is point I have been trying to make without being a debbie downer. The global models often smooth over how abrupt the fringe line is on these storms. I'm not saying trust the NAM just yet, it isn't in it's best range, but I think anyone west of the Delaware still has a lot of risk of being fringed. And believe me models can spit out 20 inches for an area and whiff 48 hours later, ask anyone from NYC from Feb 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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