Harbourton Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Whatever the outcome it will not be a repeat of March 2001 We're in late January with a fresh airmass around (climatology). It may have a sharp cutoff line along the coast - but no rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I will be in Cape May Monday-Wednesday so I have vested interest in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I am not comparing the specific situation to 2001. It is a classic example of extreme solutions for a Miller "B" busting badly within 72 hours, even with other model support. It had nothing to do with what month it was. The UKMET and Canadian have both had their moments this winter. So, even if one throws out the GFS, there is other support for a more moderate solution for us (but a BIG storm for New England regardless). Glenn Glenn agree with your about New England for sure get ready there!! What about the blocking aspect in regards to the NAO? The NAO is sitting fairly positive right now. Does the storm that is currently here right now set up the blocking needed to have this storm stall? Of course I am moving away from the models right now a bit and looking at what is currently happening and what could happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanenbc10 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Glenn agree with your about New England for sure get ready there!! What about the blocking aspect in regards to the NAO? The NAO is sitting fairly positive right now. Does the storm that is currently here right now set up the blocking needed to have this storm stall? Of course I am moving away from the models right now a bit and looking at what is currently happening and what could happen?? The +NAO definitely makes me more skeptical, especially for a Miller "B". Perhaps our weather historians can remind me of a blizzard here with a +NAO/+AO pattern. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Glenn agree with your about New England for sure get ready there!! What about the blocking aspect in regards to the NAO? The NAO is sitting fairly positive right now. Does the storm that is currently here right now set up the blocking needed to have this storm stall? Of course I am moving away from the models right now a bit and looking at what is currently happening and what could happen?? Not claiming to be an expert but the Euro 12 Z depiction showed that the storm that just went through will provide enough blocking since there was such close proximity to the two storms. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is digging the sw a little more vs 18Z. Negligible differences at the surface thru 21 hours. QPF a little lighter but I wouldn't sweat the clipper moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thru 27 the ul energy is better consolidated and moving a little faster. Ridging out West is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At 36 hours light snow has overspread much of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 39 hours trof trying to go negative tilt. Tons of energy pouring into backside of trof. Notably colder in the region this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 45 hours 998 mb east of Charleston by a couple hundred miles. broad area of lp for the moment. 500mb looks like the vorticity is tighter or just better consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 By 51 the trof is not quite as amplified as 18z to my eyes. Again, broad area of lp. Very light snow across the region. 993 (?) east of VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 57 hours 500 low pinches off and swings everything east it appears but it looks as though the surface low is trying to get captured and pulled nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So close to a Jersey shore special this run but couldn't quite pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nam 60+. Why bother Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nam 60+. Why bother Sent from my iPhone Oh I agree, just felt like dusting off some pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nam looks strange around 45 hours, has like 5 lows depending on which site/resolution you are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nam looks strange around 45 hours, has like 5 lows depending on which site/resolution you are using. Yeah heard 4km is supposedly much further west Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nam looks strange around 45 hours, has like 5 lows depending on which site/resolution you are using. Yeah heard 4km is supposedly much further west Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is the NAM, means nothing until inside 36 hours especially in a system like this. If GFS/RGEM/GGEM head East Ill worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 4km NAM is west, brings good snow into NYC and coastal NJ. Not very far off from hitting PHL. Regardless, the NAM is way out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM seems delayed, seems like everything is crashing tonight ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm pulling for a west trend, I really want to see you guys back home get in on the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS gets the job done. Heavy snow from Philly to Boston. NAM officially tossed out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes gfs is caving to a euro solution. Looks like 8 to 15 inches west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Cautious optimism here. Since moving out to the Lehigh Valley 11+ years ago, I've already lost count of how many Maulers have left us high and dry. You can usually hear the energy whooshing overhead from west to east, but we're typically left with little to show for it. It's not typically an ideal setup. But hey - trends are made to be bucked, so let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 The RGEM would have blown the hell up if we had it beyond 48 hours, tells me the GGEM will be a massive hit tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Cautious optimism here. Since moving out to the Lehigh Valley 11+ years ago, I've already lost count of how many Maulers have left us high and dry. You can usually hear the energy whooshing overhead from west to east, but we're typically left with little to show for it. It's not typically an ideal setup. But hey - trends are made to be bucked, so let's do it. we need this a tad west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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