GD0815 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Easily could provide more insight than the majority posting. of course a met could. my point was though that most of us that have some knowledge and have been following the weather for a while know the risks/uncertainty inherent with this storm. Even the mets are playing catch-up here, this has sort of exploded since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 At least temperature will not be a factor. Only have to worry about the track and when it intensifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 of course a met could. my point was though that most of us that have some knowledge and have been following the weather for a while know the risks/uncertainty inherent with this storm. Even the mets are playing catch-up here, this has sort of exploded since last night. Well, that was "my point"....a Met could further our knowledge on this event. Glenn is in the house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanenbc10 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well, that was "my point"....a Met could further our knowledge on this event. Glenn is in the house... I just typed something and the computer lost it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Basically the Euro is fantasyland then... The other models are much less for our area... that isnt exactly what they are saying. The AFD is inherently suspect of such an extreme solution and as they said the large day to day changes. It doesn't mean the Euro is wrong or in "Fantasyland" though, it is just using what is very reasonable caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 yes, agreed, but right now it is only the Euro shows this and I promise you with a MIller B there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere. Anyone (mets included) who feel confident in saying where that will be at this point is being foolish. I think right now NYC and East look pretty good for a very significant snowfall, and for our region we should certainly be on guard for something substantial, while realizing that we could still get fringed Other models are trending towards the Euro... We'll see after the 0z suite but I think most on this board would take half of what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The one thing that worries me that I have never and I mean never seen the Euro blow up like this at 48 hrs. It's usually pretty locked in at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I just typed something and the computer lost it.... That's what the Euro will say at tonight's 0z run.... this is one run I think it's awesome but I will temper my expectations quite a tad knowing that this has happened before but it has caught my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanenbc10 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Waiting for EURO Ensembles until I freak out or lose my lunch.....I just wish no one would post that map without also posting maps of other model solutions. Good thing it's a weekend, or reaction would be even crazier. Hysteria commencing in 3...2...1...... Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I just typed something and the computer lost it.... Please we need some sanity here... Were at weenie defcon 5 right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Waiting for EURO Ensembles until I freak out or lose my lunch.....I just wish no one would post that map without also posting maps of other model solutions. Good thing it's a weekend, or reaction would be even crazier. Hysteria commencing in 3...2...1...... Glenn Love it Glenn totally agree the other models do not quite look like that one that's for sure. One solution with 6+ other models to watch.... is it not eye opening though that the pressure continues steady at 29.15 here in Media really wondering if the Euro is on to something with maybe this storm pulling away a bit and just enough but causing a block upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I just typed something and the computer lost it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The one thing that worries me that I have never and I mean never seen the Euro blow up like this at 48 hrs. It's usually pretty locked in at this point. Agree with this statement sends up a red flag to me but interesting....No model had this quite like the Euro solution over the last 10 days either really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Basically the Euro is fantasyland then... The other models are much less for our area... I wouldn't say totally in la-la land the WPC discussion uses a 50/50 Split GFS/EC. Which would likely be something along the lines of NAM/CMC. Like Glenn I'm eagerly awaiting to hear on the EC ensembles. 5 members had this solution this morning, we'll see if that number increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I wouldn't say totally in la-la land the WPC discussion uses a 50/50 Split GFS/EC. Which would likely be something along the lines of NAM/CMC. Like Glenn I'm eagerly awaiting to hear on the EC ensembles. 5 members had this solution this morning, we'll see if that number increases. We need to take the weenie glasses off for a second and realize that if the EC verifies verbatim then its catastrophic for the area and could lead to loss of life and millions in damage along with an economic disruption that could last a week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I wouldn't say totally in la-la land the WPC discussion uses a 50/50 Split GFS/EC. Which would likely be something along the lines of NAM/CMC. Like Glenn I'm eagerly awaiting to hear on the EC ensembles. 5 members had this solution this morning, we'll see if that number increases. To me this makes no sense at all. This is like giving a hard math problem to two buffoons and one genius, and taking an "average" of their solutions. Yes, we could still get shafted, but it wont be because the other models have a better handle the situation. Essentially, the euro is the genius, especially with east coast storms. Of course, even the genius could get it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanenbc10 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 To me this makes no sense at all. This is like giving a hard math problem to two buffoons and one genius, and taking an "average" of their solutions. Yes, we could still get shafted, but it wont be because the other models have a better handle the situation. Essentially, the euro is the genius, especially with east coast storms. Of course, even the genius could get it wrong. Don't confuse the "genius" of the EURO at the 4-8 day period with a 72 hour forecast. It has not performed that well this winter in shorter ranges compared to other models. It has come up with other extreme solutions (mainly regarding temps) that have not verified.And this is coming from a EURO "lover" for 20 years..... Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't confuse the "genius" of the EURO at the 4-8 day period with a 72 hour forecast. It has not performed that well this winter in shorter ranges compared to other models. It has come up with other extreme solutions (mainly regarding temps) that have not verified.And this is coming from a EURO "lover" for 20 years..... Glenn On top of that, and Glenn correct me if i am wrong, but the fact that the Euro is still an outlier here is a big red flag (while acknowledging that the trend has to bring this storm west on most models today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't confuse the "genius" of the EURO at the 4-8 day period with a 72 hour forecast. It has not performed that well this winter in shorter ranges compared to other models. It has come up with other extreme solutions (mainly regarding temps) that have not verified.And this is coming from a EURO "lover" for 20 years..... Glenn I agree with you in general and on the poor performance of the Euro at times. That said, there is no good reason IMO to "blend" less good models in this setting. If any model is likely to get it right, it's the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 To me this makes no sense at all. This is like giving a hard math problem to two buffoons and one genius, and taking an "average" of their solutions. Yes, we could still get shafted, but it wont be because the other models have a better handle the situation. Essentially, the euro is the genius, especially with east coast storms. Of course, even the genius could get it wrong. Compromise is often the prudent way to go, especially with this level of uncertainty. Also, as Glenn points out the Euro is far from perfect, and performs better on gulf storms (MIller A's) than Miller B's (like we have here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not only is there a westward trend, but the GFS depiction and the EURO depiction at H5 aren't really THAT far off. It's a matter of the H5 impulse digging and closing in the south that creates the EURO's dream scenario. Same goes for the NAM. Neither the GFS or the NAM are quite as amplified as the EURO, and it's safe to call the EURO's 24+ PHL-->NYC an outlier at this point, but the evolution is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I agree with you in general and on the poor performance of the Euro at times. That said, there is no good reason IMO to "blend" less good models in this setting. If any model is likely to get it right, it's the euro. I have not dug into it myself, but HPC seems concerned of convective feedback which artificially blew up the EC run solution. This should give one considerable pause. Apparently its not the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Compromise is often the prudent way to go, especially with this level of uncertainty. Also, as Glenn points out the Euro is far from perfect, and performs better on gulf storms (MIller A's) than Miller B's (like we have here) Why on earth would you think that the CMC or the GFS has a better grasp on ANY aspect of the situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't confuse the "genius" of the EURO at the 4-8 day period with a 72 hour forecast. It has not performed that well this winter in shorter ranges compared to other models. It has come up with other extreme solutions (mainly regarding temps) that have not verified.And this is coming from a EURO "lover" for 20 years..... Glenn As a Euro lover for 20 years, have you ever seen such an extreme solution so close to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Why on earth would you think that the CMC or the GFS has a better grasp on ANY aspect of the situation? See my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro is probably overdone though is does have some support for a very potent system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 See my post I'm not a big fan of "convective feedback" explanations, even when accepting that would lead to a snowy outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Honestly... i haven't a clue what's gonna happen except that its gonna snow. I'd probably wait at least one more run of the EC to throw up any watches, though. Want at least a little run-to-run consistency. Its not impossible the Euro and its ensembles ingested a piece of data that mucked up their analysis, though I have not dug into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanenbc10 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 As a Euro lover for 20 years, have you ever seen such an extreme solution so close to the event? Yes. March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm not a big fan of "convective feedback" explanations, even when accepting that would lead to a snowy outcome. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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