famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Future book or thesis title about today: "All Quiet on the Western Front: A Storm Forecast Gone Bad" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Future book or thesis title about today: "All Quiet on the Western Front: A Storm Forecast Gone Bad" NYC forum last night had the "I Survived the Euro Blizzard of 2015" graphic going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Future book or thesis title about today: "All Quiet on the Western Front: A Storm Forecast Gone Bad" We should reboot A Christmas Carol with a Meteorologist as the main character revisiting past busts, watching current flops and spinning cautionary tales about model-hugging. The Ghost of Millers Past: "Bewaaaaaaare the western friiiiiiiiiinge... Bewaaaaaaaare the western friiiiiiiiinge!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I feel like Even Stephen. I was expecting 1"-2" with Friday's storm with a quick change over to rain, but ended up with about 5". I was hoping for 4"-6" with this storm, but will probably end up with 2" when it's all said and done. So... One over-performer, one under-performer, guess it all evens out. That's crazy that this is only a 2" storm for you right in Lansdale. I'm guessing it will continue to snow lightly (moderate right now) for another 5 hours, so another 1-2" will be added on top of the over 4 currently on the board. It's definitely a busted forecast, but I am not going to complain about a 4-6" storm (this includes yesterday part 1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yesterday at one point in the afternoon it was snowing heavily here, and I'm thinking, "Here we go baby!"...little did I know it would last for about 5 minutes. You've got to have a sense of humor about these things....and it does help that it's at least snowing now, albeit very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As a lurker snow weenie here for a couple of years I must say I've learned a lot about the forecasts of Miller B's. For public safety, I feel nice job as always, best to have folks prepared rather then be surprised. Especially since this event was not an 7 or 8 day tracker. I woke up Sunday morning saying what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even on LI where they got 11" people say getting around ain't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 TTN is still under a WSW, I don't know if we will meet the criteria or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 TTN is still under a WSW, I don't know if we will meet the criteria or not. Usually they call it at 5.5. My parents are now up to around 3.7. It snows for another few hours, it could happen. Plus, I'm sure areas north got more, so parts of the county could get there more easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Based on radar, Kill Devil Hills, NC may see more snow than PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.cnbc.com/id/102371281 You guys should read this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.cnbc.com/id/102371281 You guys should read this. That's cool...kudos to him! Is there any post game analysis going around as to "what went wrong?" Not as in "(most) of the models were wrong", but as in what factors that were not foreseen caused the storm to "miss"? Was it track only? It seems like there may have been other issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As a lurker snow weenie here for a couple of years I must say I've learned a lot about the forecasts of Miller B's. For public safety, I feel nice job as always, best to have folks prepared rather then be surprised. Especially since this event was not an 7 or 8 day tracker. I woke up Sunday morning saying what storm? Absolutely disagree. This diabolical performance will only lead to the public not taking the next storm seriously, even if it actually should be. The Boy Crying Wolf Syndrome. How in the year 2015 we can't accurately call a storm, even as it's going on, is unbelievable. We have come nowhere in 15 years, evidently....Johnny Bo is feeling vindicated this morning, and as he should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.cnbc.com/id/102371281 You guys should read this. I'm probably as disappointed as anyone for what didn't happen, but I feel Gary deserves a shake of the hand and a pat on the back for what he said. That extends equally to all the caring and hard working mets at Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That's cool...kudos to him! Is there any post game analysis going around as to "what went wrong?" Not as in "(most) of the models were wrong", but as in what factors that were not foreseen caused the storm to "miss"? Was it track only? It seems like there may have been other issues. Track was more or less it. I mean, the storm center was progged by the Euro and then the NAM to get "caught" by the upper low and tuck west, ending up much closer to the area than it actually did. The GFS and GGEM never had such a capture (or had it later), always keeping the track east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That's cool...kudos to him! Is there any post game analysis going around as to "what went wrong?" Not as in "(most) of the models were wrong", but as in what factors that were not foreseen caused the storm to "miss"? Was it track only? It seems like there may have been other issues. I read where our 50/50 low skipped town, no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Dude, go cry in a corner. The storm has just started. Well someone's feeling very stupid this morning; and it ain't me.....Whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 No school here for a normal snowstorm lol.Terrible bust for everyone. Try living out here. Not that it happened this time, but in the past, schools have cancelled before the first flakes flew. The only problem is that a couple of times the flakes NEVER flew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Track was more or less it. I mean, the storm center was progged by the Euro and then the NAM to get "caught" by the upper low and tuck west, ending up much closer to the area than it actually did. The GFS and GGEM never had such a capture (or had it later), always keeping the track east. Okay, thanks Ray. I was really counting on that tuck. So has the surface low been "captured" but further off the coast? I was also hoping the snow shield on the west wouldn't be as chewed up as it was last night. Currently it look like what I would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Okay, thanks Ray. I was really counting on that tuck. So has the surface low been "captured" but further off the coast? I was also hoping the snow shield on the west wouldn't be as chewed up as it was last night. Currently it look like what I would have expected. Low is out by the cape. If it had tucked earlier it would've been near the eastern end of LI and the big snow band that dropped up to 2 feet there would've been over NYC and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Low is out by the cape. If it had tucked earlier it would've been near the eastern end of LI and the big snow band that dropped up to 2 feet there would've been over NYC and Philly. I am still trying to figure things out too... it would appear that things slowed down some but not enough would argue not ample blocking to our northeast. However not sure what to make of all the snow that fell in Central Pa that was moving due north and actually retrograding back to the west... I would suppose that was due to the low to our west being ingested into the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Absolutely disagree. This diabolical performance will only lead to the public not taking the next storm seriously, even if it actually should be. The Boy Crying Wolf Syndrome. How in the year 2015 we can't accurately call a storm, even as it's going on, is unbelievable. We have come nowhere in 15 years, evidently....Johnny Bo is feeling vindicated this morning, and as he should.I certainly can understand this happening as well and I respect your opinion. My choice and opinion is to instinctively be prepared for what "could" happen and in the event it does not to find why the error. I can only summarize that when there was this much waffling between the models on a storm that didn't even show up in the medium\long term runs that the bust protential is pretty high. Historically this has happened before. Hopefully, the professionals will figure out why and improve future forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRB Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Absolutely disagree. This diabolical performance will only lead to the public not taking the next storm seriously, even if it actually should be. The Boy Crying Wolf Syndrome. How in the year 2015 we can't accurately call a storm, even as it's going on, is unbelievable. We have come nowhere in 15 years, evidently....Johnny Bo is feeling vindicated this morning, and as he should. I agree that public safety was not well served but disagree on the performance. The real meteorologists on this forum clearly stated the caveats of what the models were showing throughout this thread but none of that made it into the forecasts on the major networks. That's not surprising as the "news" is more about hype and entertainment these days and nothing drives rating higher than a big storm. Enacting a statewide driving ban in NJ at 9PM last night was absurd considering how the storm was performing. That is where the outrage should be directed, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I certainly can understand this happening as well and I respect your opinion. My choice and opinion is to instinctively be prepared for what "could" happen and in the event it does not to find why the error. I can only summarize that when there was this much waffling between the models on a storm that didn't even show up in the medium\long term runs that the bust protential is pretty high. Historically this has happened before. Hopefully, the professionals will figure out why and improve future forecasts. Some people think like you do. Others definitely don't. They touched on this back in 1993 when the Weather Channel made a special about Superstorm 93. They had a psychologist describe how a lot of people will consider past performance of their information source and judge it accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i hate to be so simple, but i really think the number 1 factor was the Euro had the storm hitting PHL North hard, and most people (rightfully) consider the Euro the best model, and chose to ignore the dissenting models in fashioning a forecast. A lot of times that has served them well---not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I feel like I should drop a big bottle of bourbon off at Mt. Holly for today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i hate to be so simple, but i really think the number 1 factor was the Euro had the storm hitting PHL North hard, and most people (rightfully) consider the Euro the best model, and chose to ignore the dissenting models in fashioning a forecast. A lot of times that has served them well---not this time. I'm dissapointed in those people. Anyone who forecasts storms along the east coast should know that support is required especially when its only 24-36 hours out. At the very least, some sort of compromise with all the other guidance showing significantly less snow should've happened. Instead... the 12Z Euro on Sunday got inserted directly into a lot of forecasts verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well this shows that the meteorology world has a ways to go. While I know people are frustrated, there is not anything Mets can do right now to give 100% accuracy. They still warn or give the green light more accurately than inaccurately. Being a snow lover, I hate busts like this. But they happen. Funny how the GFS was the least gung ho about the storm throughout and was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The red flags were there the last two days we just chose to ignore them. Every major Delaware valley snowstorm will have universal model support going into the event but we only had the ECM. It was the reason why I was feeling a model blend was most prudent and was feeling 6-10", still too high of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The red flags were there the last two days we just chose to ignore them. Every major Delaware valley snowstorm will have universal model support going into the event but we only had the ECM. It was the reason why I was feeling a model blend was most prudent and was feeling 6-10", still too high of course. Yes, even a model blend would've been too high still. I considered my 8-16 a blend between the GFS/GGEM/UKMET (on one side) and the EC on the other. I think the GFS had like 0.9" QPF and the EC had almost 2" QPF at that point. Obviously that will be too high by a lot, but its a lot easier to correct down from 8-16 than from 18-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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