famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HRRRs are bringing mod precip into the area and radar looks good for at least an extended period of light/mod snow very soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... .THE HIGH IMPACT SNOWSTORM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY END UP ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT WILL HAVE SPARED EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. THE COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY...ESPECIALLY MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES...MAY STILL GET SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE THE AREA INCLUDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AT TIMES AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. Instructions: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Target Area: Eastern Montgomery Lower Bucks Philadelphia Upper Bucks Western Montgomery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 mt holly lowered mercer county to 4-8 inches and i'll be ecstatic to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Maybe we can get to 6" with 12:1 ratios.... esp towards TTN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Cuts across the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 and on cue..... radar is blossoming/moving west and flakes are falling once again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The bands from the ocean have arrived, still pretty light but it is the most filled radar picture all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At this point no one probably cares but the 0Z EC caved incredibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Maybe we can get to 6" with 12:1 ratios.... esp towards TTN... Yes 5-8" is still possible for us with ratios. I think we will hit 12:1 easily. There isn't much wind so ratios should be great, myb even a bit higher than 12-1. 4-8" is a decent call for us, but I think 3-6" is more of a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yes 5-8" is still possible for us with ratios. I think we will hit 12:1 easily. There isn't much wind so ratios should be great, myb even a bit higher than 12-1. 4-8" is a decent call for us, but I think 3-6" is more of a safe bet.Let's break out the snow rally towels and get 8 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yes 5-8" is still possible for us with ratios. I think we will hit 12:1 easily. There isn't much wind so ratios should be great, myb even a bit higher than 12-1. 4-8" is a decent call for us, but I think 3-6" is more of a safe bet. 0Z EC says be happy with your 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At this point no one probably cares but the 0Z EC caved incredibly. I think most of us are still trying to pull the knives out of our back... I refuse to call the EURO the king anymore. Horrendous bust. It's a good model but it is so over-hyped and people need to stop treating it like it is a vastly superior model that is correct even when it is an outlier amongst all model guidance. If it was any other model besides the EURO showing these high snow amounts, no one would have batted and eye discounting it as an outlier. It just goes to show you how important a consensus is; also, koodos to the short term models for showing this potential for the heavy precip not making it to us, that was the writing on the wall for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At this point no one probably cares but the 0Z EC caved incredibly.Incredible, I don't think I've ever seen the EC be off by more than an inch in qpf 24 hours out. Hard to blame the forecasters, though hopefully a lesson learned not to throw out these highest totals with only one model in support. A blend of the models would have still been a little high but way more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Let's break out the snow rally towels and get 8 inches! I'm all in! I've gotta drink some jack first to cool down from this debacle haha . I think there is still a chance we can be pleasantly surprised. Should be fun to watch the radar the next few hours; you never know, we could get under a nice band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At this point no one probably cares but the 0Z EC caved incredibly. id be ticked if I still lived on the central jersey shore. the euro is usually golden when it shows a huge hit for several runs in a row right up until the event. very surprised it failed so miserably. feel bad for yall up there in nj that were hoping for a monster that seemed so likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Euro had no support for its crazy solution. None. This close in it should have had *something*. When the Euro finally backed off significantly (but not enough) this morning, the NAM stepped in, so once again, it was one model against the world. I was very surprised when so many people bought it hook, line and sinker on Sunday... yea,,,,,I was so close to booking a flight back home but had that gut feeling it maybe a close miss to the northeast so bailed out on it. so glad I did. that 18z nam run made me regret my decision but in the end it was the right move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just posted this in the NYC forum - figured I'd try here, also... Anyone have any idea why they still have blizzard warnings up for the eastern NJ counties, including Middlesex, where I live? Thought the snow was mostly over - they're still expecting 8-12" more apparently (the point and click has 3-7" overnight and 3-5" tomorrow morning). We're finally getting light snow, but haven't seen any decent snow since 7 pm. This was issued around the same time as the reduced snowfall map showing my area in 10-14" - wtih 4-5" on the ground now that would be 6-10" more - I've been thinking I'd be happy to get 2-4" more. Anyone? Bueller? MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND1227 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THISEVENING...* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.* TIMING...THE BRUNT OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The case study on this one should be quite something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Kinda funny how the local networks (3,6,10,29) came on early (4am) and basically have nothing to talk about....they're babbling and trying to fill time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On air Mets/(TV personalities) are indirectly trying to explain we have nothing....then they go to the reporters in the car/side of the road....again nothing. Philly schools off! Score one for the kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Toms River at 4:35am...boy I would be pissed. Think they were in the 12-18" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On air Mets/(TV personalities) are indirectly trying to explain we have nothing....then they go to the reporters in the car/side of the road....again nothing. Philly schools off! Score one for the kids! Listening to KYW and CBS3 met has termed it a "wild card" - the appearance of a dry slot in the storm that reduced totals. Just watching the radar overnight, you could see the narrow wrap-around bands start to disintegrate as they crossed Jersey and rolled around SW into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I asked Hurricane if he had even seen the Euro jump on a storm as drastically the epic 12Z run a few days ago and he mentioned March 2001 - always had that in back of mind as the snow totals on the models kept dropping. One thing for sure is I'll never bite on a Miller B again, no matter how historic until confirmed by radar. @#$R Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I asked Hurricane if he had even seen the Euro jump on a storm as drastically the epic 12Z run a few days ago and he mentioned March 2001 - always had that in back of mind as the snow totals on the models kept dropping. One thing for sure is I'll never bite on a Miller again, no matter how historic until confirmed by radar. @#$R Miller Bs. Bolaris gets his revenge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is excellent. Thousands of people expecting everything shut down today, waking up to a dusting. Hahaha. This is the stuff that makes life worth living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Storm of the Century Redux. Awful, awful bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I feel like Even Stephen. I was expecting 1"-2" with Friday's storm with a quick change over to rain, but ended up with about 5". I was hoping for 4"-6" with this storm, but will probably end up with 2" when it's all said and done. So... One over-performer, one under-performer, guess it all evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Boy it is going to be a long day . Amazing people in the business can't get a forecast right 12 hrs out. To much trust is models. Bustorama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 No school here for a normal snowstorm lol.Terrible bust for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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