Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is looking like what it appeared late last week...a week clipper with big development too far off the coast. by product of a lack of blocking Ray? -NAO? or more importantly subsidence between the low coming in from the west and handing off energy on the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What has happened to our weather models? I cannot believe this past weekends storm was a better outcome here. That storm was modeled as mostly rain and gave me 5". This one one was anywhere from 6-12+ and I probably got like 1-2". Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Most people wouldn't have if it hadn't been the Euro. So, I'd say the lesson is "the euro is not God" Yes, and the secondary lesson is be wary of the screw zones with Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 this is not meant as a critique at all, but the signs are there to bail, is it just considered too extreme to do so that fast, even if that is what the forecasters believe will happen? I'm genuinely curious as to what goes on w/r/t the thought process when a clear "bust" is apparent. On a side note, this was such a tough forecast, I don't envy your position here one bit. Very good with this totally agree very tough situation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT just admitted bust and I appreciate the honesty there at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 by product of a lack of blocking Ray? -NAO? the clipper wasn't even that weak as it turned out, stronger than progged. and unless your thoughts are different, this is still going to hammer eastern new england and parts of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 by product of a lack of blocking Ray? -NAO? or more importantly subsidence between the low coming in from the west and handing off energy on the coast? Did some of this also have to do with the 50/50 low breaking down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 this is not meant as a critique at all, but the signs are there to bail, is it just considered too extreme to do so that fast, even if that is what the forecasters believe will happen? I'm genuinely curious as to what goes on w/r/t the thought process when a clear "bust" is apparent. On a side note, this was such a tough forecast, I don't envy your position here one bit. Agree with that. Also I think there should be (and is) a damping effect particularly with model runs where the NWS or any forecaster isn't being yanked around by run to run changes in the models. That would not inspire confidence. The models are a tool, not the be all and end all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nice subsidence setting up. Bye bye storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nice subsidence setting up. Bye bye storm. That banding is central PA certainly didn't help things.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 by product of a lack of blocking Ray? -NAO? or more importantly subsidence between the low coming in from the west and handing off energy on the coast? The blocking or lack thereof likely did play a role. I know it was a big red flag to Glen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT just admitted bust and I appreciate the honesty there at least His updated map still gives me a foot of snow..okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 His updated map still gives me a foot of snow..okayEven his bust map is going to bust lol I will be shocked if even I get 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NYC is getting 1'+. Bank it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NYC is getting 1'+. Bank it... Or 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ocean and Monmouth Counties look to really do well with this storm.... I lived in the Toms River area for 20 years and I wish I was still there... There's another big line of heavy snow coming into the jersey shore... if those bands stick around then a foot for the shore region is still not out of the question.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NYC is getting 1'+. Bank it... From now? Nope....I don't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 RGEM... wow. Nothin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ocean and Monmouth Counties look to really do well with this storm.... I lived in the Toms River area for 20 years and I wish I was still there... There's another big line of heavy snow coming into the jersey shore... if those bands stick around then a foot for the shore region is still not out of the question.. Sadly that band is going to pivot South 20 miles short of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 RGEM... wow. Nothin' what's up with the little blob of 15mm over Salisbury? About .50"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 what's up with the little blob of 15mm over Salisbury? About .50"? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am guessing the CCB will set up just east of NYC. I don't see them getting much More than 6-8" if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 From the norlun that's causing the snow by DC? Seems odd to have it all by itself, surely not from the coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 From the norlun that's causing the snow by DC? Seems odd to have it all by itself, surely not from the coastal... Hmm, suddenly I am reminded of 4/9/1996... CCB was expected to set up just NW of the cities with mod to heavy snow. Instead a norlon/convective band of snow showers sat over central PA down towards DC and the CCB was just east of Philly and New York. Really odd since ACY had a warning level snowfall from it, very unusual for the shore on April 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The blocking or lack thereof likely did play a role. I know it was a big red flag to Glen. Thanks Ray this was truly a learning experience with this storm. In terms of. Snow disappointing but that's the way it goes around here over the past 6 years feast or famine. Thanks for keeping it real, honest, and also grounded when it comes to our expectations when large events come into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Now that offshore band appears to be helping with another westward push.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 RGEM... wow. Nothin' I can look outside and confirm nothing. Moon it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I can look outside and confirm nothing. Moon it out. Christie's just accumulating more and more self-damage by the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 IR cloud loop showing a nice comma head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HRRRs are bringing mod precip into the area and radar looks good for at least an extended period of light/mod snow very soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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