NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NYC area may not be totally dead yet, certainly LI does very well still. Every short range model and model trend since the last NAM pointed to this coming. Miller B's are rough (and i also wonder how much that enhanced snow in central and western PA impacted us here). They'll still get double-digits in the Big Apple but the notion of ridiculous, near-historic amounts is done. More MECS territory instead of HECS. E LI and SNE OTOH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thru 18Z (could be a little more after): ABE 0.05 RDG 0.05 TTN 0.31 PHL 0.20 ILG 0.11 ACY 0.49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thru 18Z (could be a little more after): ABE 0.05 RDG 0.05 TTN 0.31 PHL 0.20 ILG 0.11 ACY 0.49 sorry I asked was prepared to say..... "better than a sharp stick in the eye" but I'm not so sure!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Cue Clark Griswold rant with those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Too much awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Cue Clark Griswold rant with those numbersLOL...Just woke the wife up with one of those (perhaps the neighbors to)!!! Plenty more opportunties in February (to keep it real!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NAM says Philly you'll get your 2" and like it. Seriously that's unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Where is the low now based on obs? I'm hearing the NAM initialized the low too far east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'd hate to be a Facebook Meteorologist right about now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thru 18Z (could be a little more after): ABE 0.05 RDG 0.05 TTN 0.31 PHL 0.20 ILG 0.11 ACY 0.49 That's not very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 any idea when the snow starts? getting text from people asking. Need an answer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm really speechless right now. I need to see how far west these bands get before breaking up. Everything looks perfect to support a semi-18z nam still - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 any idea when the snow starts? getting text from people asking. Need an answer.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What an epic fail by the models, particularly the euro. The GFS may be the best model of the group... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 any idea when the snow starts? getting text from people asking. Need an answer.... on and off during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm really speechless right now. I need to see how far west these bands get before breaking up. Everything looks perfect to support a semi-18z nam still - Better haul arse...18z NAM had it down to 988 at 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The sad part is the Media went all in and the next time the public might not take it too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Better haul arse...18z NAM had it down to 988 at 3z. There's always hope. Like maybe the system is moving slower than expected...which would delay those NAM qpf amounts. (18z) If these bands hold together and make it all the way across NJ, it would be a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 There's always hope. Like maybe the system is moving slower than expected...which would delay those NAM qpf amounts. (18z) If these bands hold together and make it all the way across NJ, it would be a miracle. last man off a sinking ship, i admire your persistence....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ty sir. but yes, the waters feel like their rushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRB Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 any idea when the snow starts? getting text from people asking. Need an answer.... Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The sad part is the Media went all in and the next time the public might not take it too seriously. This isn't a shocking result, though, with MIller B's the global models often have a lot of trouble pinpointed the sharp cutoff, which is why this storm always made me nervous. Now, the NAM with its wonky 18z run (as Ray correctly called it) is another story, but most of the short range stuff had us missing the good snow, and that looks to be what is going to happen. I still think this storm ends up being a pretty big deal for NYC North and East--this time the cutoff just got us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 EVERY storm, yes EVERY storm, the NAM has a run right before the event where it has some crazy ass west shift, then it adjusts back E. It did during NEMO. For a model that NWS uses to have a 100 mile shift 12 hours before an event is absolutely absurd. And some of us look at the NAM 84 hours out. This model needs to be upgraded, and in a HUGE way. It is a joke of the wx community and might cost some mets. around the area one helluva fire storm come tomorrow morning when people wake up to 2" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Both look impressive. 700 MB - new 500 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NAM still drops over an inch of QPF on the Monmouth Coast so the gradient looks crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The sad part is the Media went all in and the next time the public might not take it too seriously. I'm sure many aren't like myself....I don't pay attention to media or any sort or winter advisory. I walk out in the morning (whenever) and look at things, adjust...and things go well. Media telling people year after year after year on how to drive and to pick up milk, bread etc is mind dumbing. Do people forget how to do this stuff within a year? And if you're new to this you learn by your parents or whoever. It's very easy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This isn't a shocking result, though, with MIller B's the global models often have a lot of trouble pinpointed the sharp cutoff, which is why this storm always made me nervous. Now, the NAM with its wonky 18z run (as Ray correctly called it) is another story, but most of the short range stuff had us missing the good snow, and that looks to be what is going to happen. I still think this storm ends up being a pretty big deal for NYC North and East--this time the cutoff just got us. If you look at the radar the bands that are moving through NY are not that impressive either, they got around 4" around diner time but it was light fluffy snow with no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If you look at the radar the bands that are moving through NY are not that impressive either, they got around 4" around diner time but it was light fluffy snow with no wind. i think they will get into some impressive banding overnight, i would guess about a foot for the city, 16-24 out on the island, more east of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 EVERY storm, yes EVERY storm, the NAM has a run right before the event where it has some crazy ass west shift, then it adjusts back E. It did during NEMO. For a model that NWS uses to have a 100 mile shift 12 hours before an event is absolutely absurd. And some of us look at the NAM 84 hours out. This model needs to be upgraded, and in a HUGE way. It is a joke of the wx community and might cost some mets. around the area one helluva fire storm come tomorrow morning when people wake up to 2" on the ground. all of this is true, but the Euro really is the big loser at least in our region. Even its worst run gave PHL 8-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 when will Mt Holly adjust their totals for western and central jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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