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1/27 Winter Storm - Round 3 - Discussion Thread


Heisy

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WPC:

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT INTRODUCEDBY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND SOMEINTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS ITAPPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND.  THE 12Z GFS IS THESTRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT.  THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHATAPPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE ITEMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC.  WITH AT LEASTTWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE THIS LARGE SYSTEM, ITCOULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, IMPLYING THE GFS ISPROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT.  THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS TOWARDS A MORESOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED STRONGERALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHICH HAS FORCED AWESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE.  WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRENDALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY.  ACOMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN, IS PREFERRED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THELARGE DAY-T0-DAY CHANGES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
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WPC:

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT INTRODUCED

BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME

INTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS IT

APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS THE

STRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT. THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT

APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66

HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT

EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. WITH AT LEAST

TWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE THIS LARGE SYSTEM, IT

COULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, IMPLYING THE GFS IS

PROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS TOWARDS A MORE

SOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED STRONGER

ALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHICH HAS FORCED A

WESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRENGTHENING TREND

ALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY. A

COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET/12Z

CANADIAN, IS PREFERRED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE

LARGE DAY-T0-DAY CHANGES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.

Basically the Euro is fantasyland then... The other models are much less for our area...

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Ray (or any Met) should bring us down to earth.

dont even need a met to do that.   this is a miller B, they have really sharp cutoffs.  Philly is going to be right on the border with regard to that.  Just look at DC on the Euro and you can get a good idea.   Now there is a myth that MIller B's are never good for Philly area, that isn't true, it is just usually a sweat either way.   As for NYC east---wow.

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Not a met but I had the thought "Okay, everybody stay calm, it's one run of one model". Yeah, right...lol. The thing is all the models have the storm at this point...keeping my fingers crossed....

Lol umm this sounds reasonable yes one model run not so sure though the Euro is known for giving us phantom dream runs like the NAM... hey pressure still 29.16 so maybe this storm sets up a 50/50 low to block just some thoughts.

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dont even need a met to do that.   this is a miller B, they have really sharp cutoffs.  Philly is going to be right on the border with regard to that.  Just look at DC on the Euro and you can get a good idea.   Now there is a myth that MIller B's are never good for Philly area, that isn't true, it is just usually a sweat either way.   As for NYC east---wow.

The Euro can shift 50 miles east and we'd still be 12"+...

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Ray (or any Met) should bring us down to earth.

 

 

dont even need a met to do that.   this is a miller B, they have really sharp cutoffs.  Philly is going to be right on the border with regard to that.  Just look at DC on the Euro and you can get a good idea.   Now there is a myth that MIller B's are never good for Philly area, that isn't true, it is just usually a sweat either way.   As for NYC east---wow.

 

Easily could provide more insight than the majority posting.

 

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The Euro can shift 50 miles east and we'd still be 12"+...

yes, agreed, but right now it is only the Euro shows this and I promise you with a MIller B there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere.  Anyone (mets included) who feel confident in saying where that will be at this point is being foolish.   I think right now NYC and East look pretty good for a very significant snowfall, and for our region we should certainly be on guard for something substantial, while realizing that we could still get fringed

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