RedSky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ray can Philly pull off 20:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 we need to remember what meso-bands can do. They almost never display perfectly where the highest QPF is depicted. 1.50 QPF for NYC , could mean the same amount for parts of western NJ...if a meso-band sets up there. Meso-bands are like thunderstorms in terms of unpredictability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12Z EC QPF: ABE 0.46 RDG 0.23 TTN 0.93 PHL 0.69 ILG 0.47 ACY 1.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ray can Philly pull off 20:1 ratios? Just my thought...hell no. Not even 15:1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Guess I'll take TTN down to 6-12 then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ray can Philly pull off 20:1 ratios? Theoretically? Sure. Is it likely? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ECM and NAM in agreement for 4-6" in SEPA west to east. For part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i'd be thrilled with 5" in southwest delco...no real practical difference between that and 8 or 9" as far as I'm concerned...schools close either way, sledding just as good, landscape just as pretty, easier to clear off the deck/sidewalk/driveway....sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ECM Eurowx maps still paint a good picture of 6-12" in SEPA high ratios ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sticking with 4-8" up home in Warminster. Gonna be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Weenie here, but trying to learn. Years past during this time frame of a storm, it was common place to Nowcast (for better OR for worse) than the continue model jumps. So what's all this model bandwagoning all about? Seriously. (Edit: Location in Trenton, NJ, haven't updated profile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Weenie here, but trying to learn. Years past during this time frame of a storm, it was common place to Nowcast (for better OR for worse) than the continue model jumps. So what's all this model bandwagoning all about? Seriously. (Edit: Location in Trenton, NJ, haven't updated profile). Models definitely still have plenty of value right now. Its just that you can augment them with observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Weenie here, but trying to learn. Years past during this time frame of a storm, it was common place to Nowcast (for better OR for worse) than the continue model jumps. So what's all this model bandwagoning all about? Seriously. (Edit: Location in Trenton, NJ, haven't updated profile). The verification scores of models continue to increase as you get closer to the event, therefore models do not become irrelevant once the storm has started. People who say "now we just have to now cast it's time to stop looking at the models" are simple weenies who are wish casting because they want to avoid model trends for less snow. While real time observations are very inportant, they are to be supplemented with model guidance in making short term forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 HRRR currently has this band (over NJ) predicted right on the money. But has everything dry tonight. Or atleast until 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12Z EC QPF: ABE 0.46 RDG 0.23 TTN 0.93 PHL 0.69 ILG 0.47 ACY 1.05 I imagine DYL is somewhere between ABE and PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I imagine DYL is somewhere between ABE and PHL? 0.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 down to 998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 down to 998 Can you tell if it is east or west of where most of the modelling placed its start location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 tcutter, it seems to be slightly slower and stronger than even the NAM. NAM had it at 1001 at this point. positioning is the same. although it has it at 997 at 4pm. So rapid strengthening is in-progress. SPC's analysis at 3pm and 4pm should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 tcutter, it seems to be slightly slower and stronger than even the NAM. NAM had it at 1001 at this point. positioning is the same. although it has it at 997 at 4pm. So rapid strengthening is in-progress. SPC's analysis at 3pm and 4pm should be interesting. not a big difference. i am more interested in the track than the strength, I think everyone is on board that this will be a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 woah, NAM is 2 MB stronger for it's 3 hour forecast. (18z run) This could be big. 995 mb at 4pm now. Compared to it's 997 mb forecast from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 woah, NAM is 2 MB stronger for it's 3 hour forecast. (18z run) This could be big. 995 mb at 4pm now. Compared to it's 997 mb forecast from 12z. I hear it nails NYC. How does it look down in SEPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec2 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Oh wow, ballistic NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 not a big difference. i am more interested in the track than the strength, I think everyone is on board that this will be a strong storm. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 YES YES YES!!!! NAM is west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Too bad we need it like 75-100 miles further NW from where it is now to make any difference for us. tcutter, it seems to be slightly slower and stronger than even the NAM. NAM had it at 1001 at this point. positioning is the same. although it has it at 997 at 4pm. So rapid strengthening is in-progress. SPC's analysis at 3pm and 4pm should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I hear it nails NYC. How does it look down in SEPA? 12-16" (+) area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I hear it nails NYC. How does it look down in SEPA? oops I posted in NYC by mistake. But yeah, looks very good. man...that 2 MB stronger at 3 hour forecast was HUGE...knew it was going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Oh wow, ballistic NAM. Just capture/save the image and upload. I really don't blame them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12-16" area wide. YEP Just eyeballing maps PHL is over 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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