GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 man that gradient is so tight (no surprise with Miller B's i know). I'm in northeast Philly and I could see even a few inch difference from here and the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seabreezelou Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ...and the plot thickens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ...and the plot thickens... Let's get the GFS to join the club and we're in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seabreezelou Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Mount Holly reduced accumulations to 12-16 for Philly & immediate suburbs and SJ; 18-24 in the Blizzard warning area. Seems a reasonable compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 3:34am update: Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from noon today to 6 PMEST Tuesday...* hazard types... heavy snow with blowing and drifting.* Snow accumulations... 12 to 16 inches.* Timing... light snow will affect the morning commute. Snow willbecome heavy at times late this afternoon through Tuesdaymorning when snowfall rates of a couple of inches per hour canoccur at times... then taper off during Tuesday afternoon.* Impacts... some impact on the Monday morning commute... thensignificant and widespread impacts thereafter. Areas ofblowing and drifting snow will add to the hazardous conditions.* Winds... north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.* Temperatures... in the upper 20s.* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.Precautionary/preparedness actions...A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow isexpected... and strong winds are possible. This will make travelvery hazardous or impossible at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6Z NAM QPF ABE 0.42 RDG 0.38 TTN 1.20 PHL 0.78 ILG 0.55 ACY 1.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6Z NAM QPF ABE 0.42 RDG 0.38 TTN 1.20 PHL 0.78 ILG 0.55 ACY 1.10 Well it's a start. Hopefully 6z gfs follows and we kinda reel it back in throughout the day. The radar is starting to blow up in Virginia. Do you have access to those pressure fall maps? See where this thing is trying to situate? I know, grasping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't know if this is a trend or just the NAM recentering itself near the SREF mean. Certainly that's about what the SREF mean has been lately at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Berks downgraded to an Advisory, which makes sense. Calling for 4-8". LV got a Warning with 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is a smidge wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 put my alarm clock on for 4am... sleepy wow...NAM's looking better than GFS now. maybe it'll get a clue at 12z. I'll be honest, I woke thinking Euro would be far east...and people complaining galore. Good to see things still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just did a melt of the 1.5" of snow that fell here overnight ratio was a bit higher than I thought at 15:1 Just ran the Wxsim with 6z GFS/NAM data and it has increased snow totals a bit here in NW Chester County Here is the run down (total snow including what has fallen) 4pm Light snow (3.0") 7pm Light Snow (3.5") 10pm Light Snow (4.0") Moderate snow begins around 1230a 1am Moderate Snow (4.5") 4am Moderate Snow (6.0") 7am Moderate Snow (7.5") 10am Moderate Snow (8.5") 3pm snow tapering to flurries - total snow accumulation 10.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec2 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Though there is a lot of nothing on the radar for PA, radar still looks healthier compared to yesterday's short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Headed to AC then to Cape May on business. Wish me luck. Honestly not expecting much in CM but maybe AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12Z NAM QPF: ABE 0.51 RDG 0.30 TTN 1.41 PHL 0.86 ILG 0.55 ACY 1.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So...looks like Berks is setting up nicely in the ripoff zone...not much from the clipper or the coastal. About an inch in North Reading. Not expecting much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12Z GFS 500mb maps look strange to me, and why I think precip shifts east. Look at the panels from 09, 12 and 15hr panels. The energy at the base of the trough moves almost due north as it looks to go negative, then at hour 15 it shifts almost due east.... Perhaps this is due to the energy coming in behind at the base of the trough, but just seems like it shouldn't shif east like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Kicker is barreling into Chicago. Hope doesn't push our storm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM vs. RGEM, ranges approximate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah DssBss I said that yesterday, I just had a gut feeling this was not going to turn out good for us it's still early but We've been here before, I'll take a few inches over nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not a complete bust but I see a 4-5" (from the main part later today) storm opposed to some of the totals thrown around. Upper Mont/Bucks Counties and further west....good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not a complete bust but I see a 4-5" (from the main part later today) storm opposed to some of the totals thrown around. Upper Mont/Bucks Counties and further west....good luck. Yeah, other than the Euro, not much else was suggesting big accumulations in our area. It's nice to have the Euro on you side, but it's been overdoing storms since the fall. I'm hoping for 6", I'll be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 R-E-L-A-X. I mean for the western areas, its been likely that you guys would miss out. But the eastern parts of PA, and north have a good chance of good amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM vs. RGEM, ranges approximate Just some slight differences in areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 R-E-L-A-X. I mean for the western areas, its been likely that you guys would miss out. But the eastern parts of PA, and north have a good chance of good amounts. Really not sure what the doom and gloom is about since a blend of the 12Z NAM and GFS still gives Philly north and east a good shot at 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, other than the Euro, not much else was suggesting big accumulations in our area. It's nice to have the Euro on you side, but it's been overdoing storms since the fall. I'm hoping for 6", I'll be happy with that. Same here. Even 4" is where i set the disappointment bar at. We are right on the edge of big numbers or total fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 R-E-L-A-X. I mean for the western areas, its been likely that you guys would miss out. But the eastern parts of PA, and north have a good chance of good amounts. For yourself (Bensalem)....may do pretty well but I see a decent size difference from upper Mont/Bucks to lower. Throw me several inches, wind and I'll be happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 For yourself (Bensalem)....may do pretty well but I see a decent size difference from upper Mont/Bucks to lower. Throw me several inches, wind and I'll be happy... Agreed. You've got to be one of the toughest area's to forecast for this storm. 10-15 miles could make the difference between a foot and 6 inches imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20150126&endTime=-1&duration=4 Looks like it is going negative, look at the clouds off of the Delmarva being pulled westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 11:53am disco: ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES BETWEEN THE 00/12Z NAMOCCURS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITHTHE SHORTWAVE LIFTING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IS A FEWHOURS FASTER TO CLOSE OFF A 500MB CENTER EARLY TUE. THIS ISREFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW THAT TRACKS A LITTLE CLOSER TOTHE COAST ON TUE. THIS PLACES THE NAM SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THEWESTERN EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR ABOUT A 12-HRPERIOD FROM 06-18Z TUE. FROM EARLY WED ONWARD...THE 12Z NAM IS ALITTLE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN ITS 00Z RUN AS THE SYSTEMMOVES FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIANMARITIMES...BUT OVERALL...THE NAM HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT.IN FURTHER COMPARISON TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...FROM 00Z WEDONWARD...THAN NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF BUT BEARSMORE IN COMMON WITH THE ECMWF THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00ZUKMET/CMC GLOBAL AND THE 09Z SREF MEAN.THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MIDATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE. OVERALLHOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS AREMINOR. IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFSREMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONGTHE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVERGIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND ASIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ASLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWFSEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.