hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I guess i view this differently than most people. Just speaking from a Philly area perspective, this has never really been modeled as a historic storm, save for maybe that one Euro run. Even the 6 inches the NAM just spit out is in-line with a lot of what we have seen today. I don't disagree, and the 0.6" of QPF at TTN Ray just posted is very respectable for a Miller B in these parts (of course it includes the intial clipper as well). I just think with the Euro holding strong for several runs this seems like it has a shot, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 this would not be a march 2001 bust for our region. not even close. there have been plenty of model runs over the last few days that have indicated that much of the area could be fringed. Absolutely you cn compare them. The 2001 storm ended up forming too far north and that is why we only got an inch instead of 30 inches. The same can be said here except maybe there is a little more of an east/west variable with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ok here comes the gfs...it cant be any worse than 18z right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't disagree, and the 0.6" of QPF at TTN Ray just posted is very respectable for a Miller B in these parts (of course it includes the intial clipper as well). I just think with the Euro holding strong for several runs this seems like it has a shot, but we shall see. I hear that. The Euro has been an outlier for a while now, though. My thing is people pretending this is a March 2001 redux for our region is silly. I'm having trouble remembering if there has even been a single model run of any other model that has shown over a foot for PHL. Now if NYC and points north and east end up with 6 inches I could see where they would be calling it a huge bust. But not for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Absolutely you cn compare them. The 2001 storm ended up forming too far north and that is why we only got an inch instead of 30 inches. The same can be said here except maybe there is a little more of an east/west variable with this one. i meant in terms of the level of bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i meant in terms of the level of bust. Ok that's definitely fair but now let's keep our fingers crossed for the GFS. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 melt down pending, gfs is east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 if anything this already looks east at 12 hrs based on the flatter flow out ahead of the storm. trof not as amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 bring those totals down per gfs run. lets see if euro caves east. noaa put those big numbers up to early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 0z runs so far are a stunning train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wait a minute....GFS is far better than the 18z run for us. I can't add the QPF but it is most definitely more and the 500mb is slightly further south and west of 18Z. Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is about 0.82" at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sticking with 5-10" total from tonight-Tuesday PM for Warminster area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS looks like an ugly run but then throws precip back to PHI and points east for a few frames to add up to a 6-10 inch storm around here. Better than the 18z run but still pales in comparison to the euro bomb. 0z run of the euro is going to be interesting to say the least. A lot of people are gonna be up at 2am tonite myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Lehigh Valley is better with 00z GFS, looks like 6-12. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 From trying to read from many sources, it is my understanding that the current air pattern closely matches the euro runs versus the other current ones. If that is true then hopefully we will all be happy come Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like a huge bust. GFS shows storm total QPF of .25-.5" in Philadelphia. That's advisory level, unless there's massive ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Fwiw, it's clear that there's still adjusting going on with the models, and not all of it eastward. Best to temper our expectations for sure, but I still don't think we can know for sure what the outcome will be. 6 to 12 seems reasonable west of the Delaware. If we could get some moderate or better wind driven snow here tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like a huge bust. GFS shows storm total QPF of .25-.5" in Philadelphia. That's advisory level, unless there's massive ratios. it looks a little higher to me when you add everything up, more like .6, but obviously nothing like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like a huge bust. GFS shows storm total QPF of .25-.5" in Philadelphia. That's advisory level, unless there's massive ratios.IncorrectHalf of city is in 0.5-0.75 the northern half is 0.75-1" http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015012600&fh=48&xpos=1&ypos=719 Just stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Incorrect Half of city is in 0.5-0.75 the northern half is 0.75-1" Just stop Yup. Actually for the Philly area, the 0z GFS was a better run than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This looks like .25-.5" to me for PHL and S NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just want the Euro to hold....biggest run of the winter coming up. Local outlets already cutting totals to 4-8" for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This looks like .25-.5" to me for PHL and S NJ? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/ Philly no, SNJ yes. But it is better than 18Z for all of SEPA gfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKMET is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKMET is east. awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 at least its snowing outside slightly right now as a consolation prize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKMET is east. Well, I am not going to stay up for Euro. Here is to hoping it stays west....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKMET is about a half inch liquid in TTN. I think 12Z had about double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 All right, for what it's worth, the Canadian is definitely east and gives us less qpf. Looks like less than 0.50 at PHL. More progressive, not much of a dipsy doodle off the Jersey coast. Hopefully IT will be the outlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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