Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Look like the GFS will be a near miss for PHL. TTN north looks like a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Im starting to think Berks may be just out of the game for this one, we should do ok with the clipper overnight into Monday though If you consider over 6 inches out of the game, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I stand corrected, that map looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hopefully GFS just had an off run, now I'll be sweating my ass off for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't like being in the bullseye this far out. Weenie excuse # 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec2 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That bad GFS run is making me nervous...If the EURO is pretty much the same I'm gonna start hoping for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The number one rule with Miller B's - Somebody is gonna screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I do find it interesting how many folks actually go up and down based on one model run.....thankfully the professionals don't do that. They understand a model is never a forecast just guidance. Now if the EURO goes well west then you may not get your historic snow. That said almost everyone in this area is going to have a significant snow event between the clipper snows and then the coastal. As JB would say this is a heck of a way to run a warm-up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't like being in the bullseye this far out. Weenie excuse # 5 Yeah I would be worried if I was in the Bullseye at this stage. We got it right where we want it.... it'l come back.. just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 would be kinda funny if this GFS verified...after all the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I do find it interesting how many folks actually go up and down based on one model run.....thankfully the professionals don't do that. They understand a model is never a forecast just guidance. Now if the EURO goes well west then you may not get your historic snow. That said almost everyone in this area is going to have a significant snow event between the clipper snows and then the coastal. As JB would say this is a heck of a way to run a warm-up.... Absolutely. We just had a several inch snowfall Friday night, and now expecting several more inches Tonight into Tuesday. After a winter of mostly cold rain and looking at grass and mud, no one should be complaining! Sit back and enjoy it folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That bad GFS run is making me nervous...If the EURO is pretty much the same I'm gonna start hoping for a miracle. It's one model and one run. No reason to get bent out of shape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is there a GFS snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's one model and one run. No reason to get bent out of shape... And the GFS at that. Wouldn't worry unless the UK and ECM come in bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 well, it isn't entirely unreasonable for people to change their minds based on the latest models runs, as accuracy increases as the storm gets closer. It is a little weird that as the NAM finally came around for this area, the GFS sort of looks like the NAM before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I stand corrected, that map looks good to me First thing i see today is that map and think it is 12z. Talk about a total buzz kill rug pulled out 12z run, not that i didn't think it might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is there a GFS snow map? i dont have one to post, but it is pretty ugly, no one south of let's say TTN gets in on anything big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Interesting that at 12Z the NAM joined the party and the GFS said CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 From HPC THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TIMING ANDPLACEMENT OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT ALL OPERATIONALMODELS NOW HAVE THE FORECAST OF A MAJOR SNOW STORM/BLIZZARD. THEMODELS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW INRESPONSE TO TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCES...WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONSINTRODUCING HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH IN THE DELMARVA ANDNJ AND FURTHER INLAND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEWYORK. SOLUTIONS WITH A FASTER LOW TRACK KEEP THE SNOW THREATACROSS LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.MANUAL PROGS GAVE MORE WEIGHTING TO THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/21Z SREFMEAN/00Z ECMWF QPF AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 this is where GFS seems so wrong on this run, and missing data. 983 low retrograding...and nothing but flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Absolutely. We just had a several inch snowfall Friday night, and now expecting several more inches Tonight into Tuesday. After a winter of mostly cold rain and looking at grass and mud, no one should be complaining! Sit back and enjoy it folks! if this ends up as a couple of inches and 60 miles to the north they are getting a historic blizzard people will be complaining i assure you. Miller B's are brutal, and we are right in the sweat zone. I got killed by a few people for being a downer yesterday, but I have seen this setup before, it doesn't mean it can't still hit big here, but it is far from a lock, and someone close by is getting screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Steve D believes the surface was poorly reflected on GFS, and says upper-levels were like the EURO. IMO I would still not rule out a major hit for SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Steve D threw out the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Steve D believes the surface was poorly reflected on GFS, and says upper-levels were like the EURO. IMO I would still not rule out a major hit for SEPA I'd be surprised if most reasonable people were ruling out a major hit based just on the GFS. If the GGEM and Euro follow suit, then it will be time to reassess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And the GFS at that. Wouldn't worry unless the UK and ECM come in bad. Reserve a spot on one of the bridges in Philly if that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Steve D threw out the GFS. major hype for 18z gfs now. if 2 runs in a row go sour...we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 hmmm 18z gfs......call me not convinced by that run either way.... major hype for 18z gfs now. if 2 runs in a row go sour...we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 major hype for 18z gfs now. if 2 runs in a row go sour...we're screwed. ummm i would be much more concerned if the Euro went sour than the 18z GFS, the precip looks a little wonky given the track on the GFS anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 hmmm 18z gfs......call me not convinced by that run either way.... I'd focus on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You can't throw out a model run just because. Could it be erroneous? Yes but just tossing bc the surface doesn't reflect 500mb is not smart. The GFS was different simply because it was weaker and took longer to close off therefore it's best dynamics headed north and east. I'm waiting for the euro and it's ensembles before I do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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