baseball0618 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's digging much further to the west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Latest SREF plumes for TTN http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=TTN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.92422206902769&mLON=-74.53784621582031&mTYP=roadmap PNE mean is right at 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 500mb contours closer to the coast at 30hr. May result in a slightly closer track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Low at 36hr definitely slightly further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Latest SREF plumes for TTN http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=TTN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.92422206902769&mLON=-74.53784621582031&mTYP=roadmap SREF plumes will be way overdone for this event. Not going to be more than 12:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM joins the party Complete capture off SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM joins the party Complete capture of SNJ What is SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Southern NJ. (I meant off SNJ) This run hits all of NJ hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Doesn't quite get Philly but all in all the NAM's still on the eastern side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Doesn't quite get Philly but all in all the NAM's still on the eastern side of guidance. Philly gets 10-12" on the NAM, the cut off is insane though as expected. Hopefully the 12z guidance shifts West. I don't want to road trip to NYC/CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Doesn't quite get Philly but all in all the NAM's still on the eastern side of guidance. In what way doesn't it get Philly? Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM looks much better though; there is a decent chance it keeps trending west if no change from the other models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hm, as of hour 48, it looked like they were kind of borderline with the .75" area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 In what way doesn't it get Philly? Looks good to me. Has a pretty sharp cutoff in SE PA; Philly still does fairly well but the NW burbs may need more trending on the NAM to get those WOW amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Has a pretty sharp cutoff in SE PA; Philly still does fairly well but the NW burbs may need more trending on the NAM to get those WOW amounts. 6z nam total qpf 12 z total qpf. does not take an expert to see the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM soon, huge run considering the 6z RGEM was a bit NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6z nam total qpf 12 z total qpf. does not take an expert to see the trend Problem is, that's where we seem to be hitting the wall for those of us NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Problem is, that's where we seem to be hitting the wall for those of us NW...You guys never did well during the last few NJ crush job seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Greg - absolutely! check out my post on this very topic Any Miller Bs ever work out well out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM out to 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Greg - absolutely! check out my post on this very topic They don't work out much for your location, but where I sit I feel pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Depends what you mean by work out well....based on the analysis usually results in a significant storm and sometimes double digits.....so all relative of course as points to the east and northeast will do better in these but.....am thinking between the higher amounts from the clipper and the noreaster we will not be doing too shabby out here by Tuesday AM.....but what do I know I leave it to the professionals at Mt Holly They don't work out much for your location, but where I sit I feel pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM is east of NAM at least thru 36, argh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Depends what you mean by work out well....based on the analysis usually results in a significant storm and sometimes double digits.....so all relative of course as points to the east and northeast will do better in these but.....am thinking between the higher amounts from the clipper and the noreaster we will not be doing too shabby out here by Tuesday AM.....but what do I know I leave it to the professionals at Mt Holly #1 you are right they often do work out for our locations. (not exactly the same but close enough....) I wouldn't trade my location for lower/closer to the coast ever. I'm sitting at 25.4" for the season already Our locations usually get something decent from practically EVERY threat, we aren't all or nothing here. Quick question, was February 10, 2010 a miller B? The one that hung out off of the coast of NJ and dropped 19~20" of wet snow on most everyone around here. (it was the 2nd big storm out of the 3 that hit our area that February) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM is east of NAM at least thru 36, argh PHL looks fine on the RGEM unless I am looking an an old run by accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blizzard Watch Ocean County NJ and most of Jersey Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Great point Darth!That was indeed and we did get 18.3" of snow out of that one....so sometimes Miller Bs do indeed work out for the burbs....I also added it to the list #1 you are right they often do work out for our locations. (not exactly the same but close enough....) I wouldn't trade my location for lower/closer to the coast ever. I'm sitting at 25.4" for the season already Our locations usually get something decent from practically EVERY threat, we aren't all or nothing here. Quick question, was February 10, 2010 a miller B? The one that hung out off of the coast of NJ and dropped 19~20" of wet snow on most everyone around here. (it was the 2nd big storm out of the 3 that hit our area that February) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6-12"+ More like 14-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Im starting to think Berks may be just out of the game for this one, we should do ok with the clipper overnight into Monday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Im starting to think Berks may be just out of the game for this one, we should do ok with the clipper overnight into Monday thoughLook at that map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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