wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 6:45 PM, PSUHazletonWx said: AVP? Last one. 0.83 liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 6:30 PM, Birds~69 said: Can your cam zoom out? Looks like from your previous photos it cuts off at 15" although I may have missed some. It's kinda a good problem... Planning for it to get cleared every so often so no matter what, I don't expect it to show the full total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 6:36 PM, MacChump said: im cautiously optimistic for us...gonna go ahead and tell the kids we can go sledding tomorrow... The hard stuff underneath should make it great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 6:48 PM, wkd said: Last one. 0.83 liquid Nice...I'd be down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Where are you getting those WKD? According to wxbell. The total precips are different. ABE: 1.2" PHL: 1.7" TTN: 1.9" NYC: 2.4" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 6:18 PM, famartin said: Euro is pretty similar to last run. I am thinking 8-16 for Trenton/Ewing. forecast makes a ton of sense, need to leave a broad range because of the nature of this storm, although at Trenton you have just a little more wiggle room than us Philly folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:07 PM, anthonyweather said: Where are you getting those WKD? According to wxbell. The total precips are different. ABE: 1.2" PHL: 1.7" TTN: 1.9" NYC: 2.4" Sent from my iPhone Do you think I-95 could pull out 15-1 ratios average for this? That would turn my 1.9" at ttn into 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:16 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Do you think I-95 could pull out 15-1 ratios average for this? That would turn my 1.9" at ttn into 28" Like Ray said, no, 12:1 more likely, wind knocks down ratios Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:16 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Do you think I-95 could pull out 15-1 ratios average for this? That would turn my 1.9" at ttn into 28" Wind hurts ratios, breaks up the flakes. Stick with 12:1 for your max. It can be as low as 10:1, that's what I saw in Ewing during Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:18 PM, famartin said: Wind hurts ratios, breaks up the flakes. Stick with 12:1 for your max. It can be as low as 10:1, that's what I saw in Ewing during Boxing Day. Yeah I figured that with wind, however the TTN and philly area are going to have less wind than NYC and points northeast. So hopefully that can help us a bit on the ratios. I'm gonna be hoping for around 13-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:22 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Yeah I figured that with wind, however the TTN and philly area are going to have less wind than NYC and points northeast. So hopefully that can help us a bit on the ratios. I'm gonna be hoping for around 13-1. what you are also have to realize is that ratio's are not consistent throughout the whole storm, so during a certain period you may get 15-1 but during other times ,10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think I will go with 9-14" down here in Delco this for Media Proper and of course southwest cut off has me a bit worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:07 PM, anthonyweather said: Where are you getting those WKD? According to wxbell. The total precips are different. ABE: 1.2" PHL: 1.7" TTN: 1.9" NYC: 2.4" Sent from my iPhone Can you share ACY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:07 PM, anthonyweather said: Where are you getting those WKD? According to wxbell. The total precips are different. ABE: 1.2" PHL: 1.7" TTN: 1.9" NYC: 2.4" Sent from my iPhone Yes one could tell by the Eurowx map alone those totals were nor accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREF's drier than 9z by a decent amount, Euro is definitely an outlier at this point (for our area, anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:07 PM, anthonyweather said: Where are you getting those WKD? According to wxbell. The total precips are different. ABE: 1.2" PHL: 1.7" TTN: 1.9" NYC: 2.4" Sent from my iPhone From Eurowx.com's data output, not the map. I don't know anything about wxbell, Maybe that's why wxbell's snowfall maps are so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:39 PM, wkd said: From Eurowx.com's data output, not the map. I don't know anything about wxbell, Maybe that's why wxbell's snowfall maps are so high.The maps are identical, at least for E.PA.I'm not super knowing about the SREFS, But mean total snowfall is 15.0" for ABE. So SREFS doubled the mean from its last run.. How would that signify it moved east? Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Pressure drops are in line with the Euro storm track which is further south than the other models. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:40 PM, anthonyweather said: The maps are identical, at least for E.PA. I'm not super knowing about the SREFS, But mean total snowfall is 15.0" for ABE. Sent from my iPhone 15Z just came out and its much less. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150125&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ABE&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.149229006911625&mLON=-74.696461328125&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 6:55 PM, famartin said: Planning for it to get cleared every so often so no matter what, I don't expect it to show the full total. That would work. Although the wind will create havoc....not sure how anyone can get honest total w/the pending conditions? Should be cool to follow the magical ruler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:43 PM, famartin said: 15Z just came out and its much less. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150125&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ABE&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.149229006911625&mLON=-74.696461328125&mTYP=roadmap pretending I didn't see that. waiting for NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:43 PM, famartin said: 15Z just came out and its much less. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150125&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ABE&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.149229006911625&mLON=-74.696461328125&mTYP=roadmap Correct (especially in the western part), but still have 1" contour to extreme SEPA and most of NJ. It is still more than 3Z by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:46 PM, Bacon Strips said: pretending I didn't see that. waiting for NAM... I would go with the Euro. It has been consistent while the other models all waffle. Plus it is great in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 server's back...just in time for NAM. NAM is a touch east, but still a big hit for NJ. Almost nothing for PA though. (regarding the heavy precip with the Low itself) A touch more east and western NJ misses out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 7:48 PM, mattinpa said: I would go with the Euro. It has been consistent while the other models all waffle. Plus it is great in this range. The SREF is still a 13" mean for PNE, and a tight cluster from 10-15". It had more extreme outliers before with a mean of 16", so still not a huge downgrade by any means. (talking purely about qpf, it's a big storm, it's the track and cutoff that is uncertain, and when it comes down to it, everyone will just say nowcast anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Montgomery, Bucks, Philadelphia, Delaware and all of NJ upgraded to warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 9:09 PM, famartin said: Montgomery, Bucks, Philadelphia, Delaware and all of NJ upgraded to warnings. Wow, 14-24" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 9:11 PM, anthonyweather said: Wow, 14-24" Sent from my iPhone wow they are definitely buying the Euro solution, i hope they are right, because I don't think there is another model out there right now giving us anywhere close to those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 9:17 PM, GD0815 said: wow they are definitely buying the Euro solution, i hope they are right, because I don't think there is another model out there right now giving us anywhere close to those numbers I'm just waiting for the winter weather advisory for lehigh for 3-5" lol. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec2 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow. Don't know how many of you have seen the new NWS snow map but it's unbelievable. If this storm is as bad as it is forecasted to be, there will be some serious structural damages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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