Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 6z GFS showed a classic Miller B event. Not really supported by the EURO or its ensembles, but it isn't like the EURO has been Mr. Perfect lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Unfortunately it's the only model showing anything remotely like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hear ya. One of these is gonna stick sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hear ya. One of these is gonna stick sooner or later. Or not. Seems like the winter where if you can get screwed...you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z NAM looks good at 57 hours, lot of energy dropping in on the backside of the trough. I have a weird feeling after today's 12z runs well be focusing in on this storm and not the weekend one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 FWIW @ 84 hours the 12z NAM looks similar to the 6z GFS @ 90 hours. Good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 One thing we will have with this storm is a HP. Its possible we would start out with some rain/snow as heights crash eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Very good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Completely different setup with this one since we have a cold air source. GFS is just a touch north for the perfect super clipper gaining strength and slowing at the coast scenario for SEPA. ECM was suppressed too much, ultimately I think we want a weaker storm Saturday to avoid it going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z ECM track is excellent south of the Mason Dixon. Don't have QPF yet but it's cold enough for all of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z ECM track is excellent south of the Mason Dixon. Don't have QPF yet but it's cold enough for all of PA but it did move north like the GFS, trend doesn't give you a warm & fuzzy ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 but it did move north like the GFS, trend doesn't give you a warm & fuzzy ATM Double low structure so it remains strung out. GFS has the hot hand i like at least a 2-4" for Monday if it remains weak and higher amounts if we have a consolidated storm like the GFS but the ECM track. But yeah complications galore this winter loves them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z GFS says THIS is the system you were looking for.... Nice looking clipper, but I suppose like all clipers it will continue to dry up on the models as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z perfect track for a 4-6" event. But today's run are no longer slowing it down at the coast stays progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z perfect track for a 4-6" event. But today's run are no longer slowing it down at the coast stays progressive Damm +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z GFS continues a 4-6" threat with possibly more to the south.... if this trends any further south and weaker then we might be looking at just a repeat of clipper #1... screw this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I could be wrong but I think it's better that it passes a little to our south as opposed to right over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I could be wrong but I think it's better that it passes a little to our south as opposed to right over PA. No you are right you always want it south. Another good track this run, it's like the first clipper of the month that dumped 4" north of DC only this time Philly and burbs possibly closer to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No you are right you always want it south. Another good track this run, it's like the first clipper of the month that dumped 4" north of DC only this time Philly and burbs possibly closer to 6" Especially as it's a bit stronger. Can we lock this track in now please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lovely thought i was looking at 0z and it was 18z Went really far south we don't want it any further crappola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Especially as it's a bit stronger. Can we lock this track in now please? My super clipper just dumped 7" of digital snow near DC, still good for you but not up here. That's an 80's nightmare for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GGEM now tracks the low to RIC. Ugh &@#%!$believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 My super clipper just dumped 7" of digital snow near DC, still good for you but not up here. That's an 80's nightmare for NYC Okay, how about we have it turn east when it gets to West Virginia, instead of diving all the way to Norfolk? 0z GGEM goes even further south than the 0z GFS by the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 6z NAM just poo-poo'd on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 6z NAM just poo-poo'd on Monday. Don't look now.. but the 6z GFS is going in the opposite direction... better then 0z Verbatim it's about 6" or more for SEPA and SNJ.... The NAM is not accurate at this range... and the GFS is better with the northern stream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Don't look now.. but the 6z GFS is going in the opposite direction... better then 0z Verbatim it's about 6" or more for SEPA and SNJ.... The NAM is not accurate at this range... and the GFS is better with the northern stream... yea, that was a surprise. GFS bringin in the TP. NAM was good at catching tonight's storm early tho. And who knows, it might swing back at 12z. (for Monday's) We def need ECM to come aboard though. It's been swimmin with the fishies for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 yea, that was a surprise. GFS bringin in the TP. NAM was good at catching tonight's storm early tho. And who knows, it might swing back at 12z. (for Monday's) We def need ECM to come aboard though. It's been swimmin with the fishies for awhile now. While EURO was obv just a light snow event, it was very close to spinning up something bigger. If the 12z GFS comes in weak I will give up, but if the GFS holds at 12z I might expect the EURO to jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 While EURO was obv just a light snow event, it was very close to spinning up something bigger. If the 12z GFS comes in weak I will give up, but if the GFS holds at 12z I might expect the EURO to jump on board. I'll be ready to toss the euro if just the 12z NAM comes back aboard. When NAM and GFS are strong together with the same solution .... 9 times out of 10...the ECM slowly migrates over. (or ends up being clueless throughout) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just looking at this, you would have thought the EURO was going to show a SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z NAM takes it out to sea, big storm for the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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