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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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200mb GEFS -Spag guidance

Jet stream winds....not surface low track

that jet is what pushes and pulls on our system

just to clarify..

 

 

you can clearly see the shift east then southeast

and I believe  this should show up on the surface reflections

during the next few runs.....

 

this systems track will trend east over time -imho

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgefs-spag%2F06%2Fgefs-spag_atlantic_054_200_1176_ht.gif&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=06&param=200_1176_ht&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

Track Clusters

show this east of the bm idea   ++++ to the east of center line ATM

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

Watch for the cluster update from the WPC

 

dm 

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The immediate coast and the city briefly mix on the 12z NAM.

Nam starts off the area with snow then changes to a mix before the ccb swings through. I would like to see the models increase the precip amounts especially with a sub 980 low on the benchmark. Need better phasing.

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attachicon.gifjet-200.gif

200mb GEFS -Spag guidance

 

you can clearly see the shift east then southeast

and I believe  this should show up on the surface reflections

during the next few runs.....

 

this systems track will trend east over time -imho

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgefs-spag%2F06%2Fgefs-spag_atlantic_054_200_1176_ht.gif&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=06&param=200_1176_ht&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

Track Clusters

show this east of the bm idea   ++++ to the east of center

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

Watch for the cluster update from the WPC

 

dm 

You can't base your forecast soley on the GEFS ensembles. The Euro ensembles are far surperior and most members are tightly clustered 50 miles SE of ACY to the benchmark.

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979 low looks tasty. Too bad there isn't a lot more precip.

I'm suspect of the low precip amounts given how strong some of these lows are projected. The Gulf is wide open. The speed isn't helping much, but it may beat the kicker and allow low to stay farther west.

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You can't base your forecast soley on the GEFS ensembles. The Euro ensembles are far surperior and most members are tightly clustered 50 miles SE of ACY to the benchmark.

WPC map has the euro cluster

and I can base my guidance any way I like sir

 

dm

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Here is the front end dump

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_15.png

Then dry slot

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_17.png

And then the back ended CCB swings through

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_19.png

53cddac824a07d595bd349751558d00d.jpg

This is the 12km at 57 hr

There is your difference. Different both at the surface and aloft on the 12km vs the 4km. Much different evolution in general.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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Per soundings on the plymouth site. NYC and coastal sections briefly mix. The total precipitation amount is not impressive .4-.6 in liquid eqv with temperatures around freezing would yield 4-6 inches of snow on the 12z Nam. 

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Per soundings on the plymouth site. NYC and coastal sections briefly mix. The total precipitation amount is not impressive .4-.6 in liquid eqv with temperatures around freezing would yield 4-6 inches of snow on the 12z Nam.

I'd take 4-6" in a heartbeat. Sign me up.

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That map cluster you posted does not include the EPS members. I've seen them myself and I know that they aren't being represented there.

 

Using one source to make a forecast is just plain foolish.

Check your facts

LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC

These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future.  It is provided in two formats,  non-technical and technical.

  • The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white.  Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time).  The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles. 
  • The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black.  Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:
    • 1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run
    • 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run
    • 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run
    • 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run
    • 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run
    • 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run
    • 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members
    • 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members
    • 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 1 ECMWF ensemble mean
    • 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs
    • 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs
  • http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml
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<p>

Check your facts

LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC

These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future. It is provided in two formats, non-technical and technical.

  • The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white. Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time). The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles.
  • The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black. Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:
    • 1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run
    • 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run
    • 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run
    • 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run
    • 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run
    • 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run
    • 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members
    • 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members
    • 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 1 ECMWF ensemble mean
    • 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs
    • 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs
  • http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml

You posted the GEFS plots, not the multi model ones. Enough. Take it to PMs if you want to argue about your forecast.

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Check your facts

LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC

These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future.  It is provided in two formats,  non-technical and technical.

  • The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white.  Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time).  The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles. 
  • The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black.  Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:
    • 1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run
    • 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run
    • 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run
    • 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run
    • 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run
    • 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run
    • 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members
    • 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members
    • 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 1 ECMWF ensemble mean
    • 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs
    • 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs
  • http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml

 

I believe his point was that the map did not show the individual ECMWF ensemble members, not the ensemble mean(s).

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Check your facts

LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC

These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future.  It is provided in two formats,  non-technical and technical.

  • The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white.  Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time).  The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles. 
  • The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black.  Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:
    • 1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run
    • 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run
    • 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run
    • 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run
    • 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run
    • 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run
    • 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members
    • 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members
    • 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean
    • 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean
    • 1 ECMWF ensemble mean
    • 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs
    • 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs
  • http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml

 

Yeah it includes the mean and the OP, not the 51 ensemble members.

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I too am not buying a low sub 980 producing meager precip. What I think it's doing is smoothing out the banding. I think there will be a deformation band that if it stays in any one area for a decent amount of time will jackpot. Hence my idea of 12" jackpot Nw and Ne and even up to 10" on Long Island. That's what this storm will be remembered for. I like the jan 11 analog allot just with lesser amount this time

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I too am not buying a low sub 980 producing meager precip. What I think it's doing is smoothing out the banding. I think there will be a deformation band that if it stays in any one area for a decent amount of time will jackpot. Hence my idea of 12" jackpot Nw and Ne and even up to 10" on Long Island. That's what this storm will be remembered for. I like the jan 11 analog allot just with lesser amount this time

And me. Especially not with a loaded Miller A ! If this sticks close enough. Someone will see big numbers...

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GFS is much better. CCB is better developed and stretches back into NE PA. It looks warm but that will work itself out. Just happy to see the good moisture make it inland.

Is the run done? Where is the SLP placement vis a vis the BM? how is the structure on the NW side? does QPF exceed .75 in the immediate KNYC?

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