Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 so we are down from 1.23 QPF to .50 for example? .6 or so for nyc..less nw..more on LI. An inch plus as you head further east on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That sounds like a favorable track...I wish I had access to my laptop right now so I could see what exactly is going on at H5 and H3. That track with a storm exploding like it shows, does not yield a whimper of a storm. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That sounds like a favorable track... It's a good track but something is interfering with the nw side of this storm. Hopefully a met can explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That sounds like a favorable track... ...at least for out here over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So it's a benchmark track but it's bad solution? Lakes low screwing up the western precip shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 .6 or so for nyc..less nw..more on LI. An inch plus as you head further east on LI Unless half of that is slop Im perfectly fine with a 3-6 In snowfall. In this winter that is a gold mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's a good track but something is interfering with the nw side of this storm. Hopefully a met can explain. Didn't the CMC show the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Unless half of that is slop Im perfectly fine with a 3-6 In snowfall. In this winter that is a gold mine. H5 did not close off south of LI like it did at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Unless half of that is slop Im perfectly fine with a 3-6 In snowfall. In this winter that is a gold mine. There's def some slop in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Didn't the CMC show the same thing? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Possible cave to the GFS. We shall see No its a great track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The models tonight fit the pattern that a few people were talking about earlier today when the weenies were going crazy over the 12z runs. A 3-6 or 4-8" event is the best fit for this pattern, which posters like Don S. have been hitting at from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 One of the other disturbing elements to me was the lack of a nice anticyclone over Eastern Canada...that sort of thing is absolutely de rigueur for all your big East Coast snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 H5 did not close off south of LI like it did at 12zThank you for that explanation. I still wish I could see exactly what H5 is doing. That makes the world of difference, but I'm going to stick with my gut on this one. Likewise, this solution is not a shift East. It's just that the models are having trouble resolving exactly what the shortwave interaction is going to be. Remember, the kicker is still over the Pacific as well. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How does a 972 MB low produce that little QPF with a gulf connection? Looking at snow map for 72 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sloppy phase was the reason why this run wasn't that good. A 974 low on the benchmark would sure crush us if the phase was clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thank you for that explanation. I still wish I could see exactly what H5 is doing. That makes the world of difference, but I'm going to stick with my gut on this one. Likewise, this solution is not a shift East. It's just that the models are having trouble resolving exactly what the shortwave interaction is going to be. Remember, the kicker is still over the Pacific as well. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer The phase was sloppy and the storm took longer to mature. Wait for the Mets to chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SR from NE thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45446-possible-weekend-snowstorm/page-13#entry3276755 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's a high have to do being over se Canada...you want a 50/50 low not a high. I thought my statement was easy to comprehend...which it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can't believe the Ecmwf was gona be beaten by the Gfs, horrible winter continues. They have different solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We'll see how the 12z runs trend tomorrow, but this was not a good trend on the 00z suite tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's a high have to do being over se Canada...you want a 50/50 low not a high. High will drain colder air into the area. A 50/50 low would have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can't believe the Ecmwf was gona be beaten by the Gfs, horrible winter continues. Not really the problem isn't the track; the Euro track is over the BM while the Gfs is further east it's the other elements surrounding it. This is not your classic east coast storm with a nice banana high stretched to its NW. Forky was correct stating there is zero room for error because the track has to be just right otherwise it's either warmer/more rain or it's a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's a high have to do being over se Canada...you want a 50/50 low not a high. You want a strong high over southern Quebec and a low at 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's a high have to do being over se Canada...you want a 50/50 low not a high. A high over southeast Canada allows for a source of fresh, arctic air to be injected into the system. Otherwise, the flow comes in off the water and allows for a greater potential for mixing or rain. In that circumstance, you need a bombing low to dynamically cool the atmosphere in order for snow to be produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I have my facts right. You want a 50/50 low over se canada and a high located over Ontario and western ny. And 50/50 refers to 50N/50W position in case you or somebody didn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hope you guys realize that if the GGEM and EURO had better phases, they would have been MECS's for your area. You need to look at the big picture and stop freaking out over the details. Is it a good trend, no, but it would take but a small shift towards a better phase to have this be once again a big event for the sub forum like you saw on the 12z runs, and you still have 60 hours to do it. Best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hope you guys realize that if the GGEM and EURO had better phases, they would have been MECS's for your area. You need to look at the big picture and stop freaking out over the details. Is it a good trend, no, but it would take but a small shift towards a better phase to have this be once again a big event for the sub forum like you saw on the 12z runs, and you still have 60 hours to do it. Best of luck. I agree. A better phase would have yielded a favorable scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trend is awful tonight so far, no denying it. 1.23 qpf to .6 for nyc in 1 run. Not to mention the .6 is most likely not all snow. There was talk here earlier of 30 inches of snow....more likely 4 -8/ The 30 inch talk was fantasy .. The 4-8 inch was more like reality ... However ..the ECM is not that far off from its 12 Z run...Difference between 12 Z and 00z is cleaner phase and closing off versus sloppy phase and not closing off..In other words timing with 60 hrs to go... Its a good track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I have my facts right. You want a 50/50 low over se canada and a high located over Ontario and western ny. 50W/50N is a few hundred miles east of the Newfoundland coast and yes, that's not technically too far from SE Canada, but most people are referring to Nova Scotia when they think of SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.