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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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That sounds like a favorable track...

I wish I had access to my laptop right now so I could see what exactly is going on at H5 and H3. That track with a storm exploding like it shows, does not yield a whimper of a storm.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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One of the other disturbing elements to me was the lack of a nice anticyclone over Eastern Canada...that sort of thing is absolutely de rigueur for all your big East Coast snowstorms. 

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H5 did not close off south of LI like it did at 12z

Thank you for that explanation. I still wish I could see exactly what H5 is doing. That makes the world of difference, but I'm going to stick with my gut on this one. Likewise, this solution is not a shift East. It's just that the models are having trouble resolving exactly what the shortwave interaction is going to be. Remember, the kicker is still over the Pacific as well.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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Thank you for that explanation. I still wish I could see exactly what H5 is doing. That makes the world of difference, but I'm going to stick with my gut on this one. Likewise, this solution is not a shift East. It's just that the models are having trouble resolving exactly what the shortwave interaction is going to be. Remember, the kicker is still over the Pacific as well.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

The phase was sloppy and the storm took longer to mature. Wait for the Mets to chime in.

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Can't believe the Ecmwf was gona be beaten by the Gfs, horrible winter continues.

Not really the problem isn't the track; the Euro track is over the BM while the Gfs is further east it's the other elements surrounding it. This is not your classic east coast storm with a nice banana high stretched to its NW. Forky was correct stating there is zero room for error because the track has to be just right otherwise it's either warmer/more rain or it's a whiff.

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What's a high have to do being over se Canada...you want a 50/50 low not a high.

 

A high over southeast Canada allows for a source of fresh, arctic air to be injected into the system.  Otherwise, the flow comes in off the water and allows for a greater potential for mixing or rain.  In that circumstance, you need a bombing low to dynamically cool the atmosphere in order for snow to be produced.

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I hope you guys realize that if the GGEM and EURO had better phases, they would have been MECS's for your area. You need to look at the big picture and stop freaking out over the details. Is it a good trend, no, but it would take but a small shift towards a better phase to have this be once again a big event for the sub forum like you saw on the 12z runs, and you still have 60 hours to do it.

 

Best of luck.

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I hope you guys realize that if the GGEM and EURO had better phases, they would have been MECS's for your area. You need to look at the big picture and stop freaking out over the details. Is it a good trend, no, but it would take but a small shift towards a better phase to have this be once again a big event for the sub forum like you saw on the 12z runs, and you still have 60 hours to do it.

 

Best of luck.

I agree. A better phase would have yielded a favorable scenario.

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Trend is awful tonight so far, no denying it. 1.23 qpf to .6 for nyc in 1 run. Not to mention the .6 is most likely not all snow.  There was talk here earlier of 30 inches of snow....more likely 4 -8/

The 30 inch talk was fantasy ..

The 4-8 inch was more like reality ...

 

However ..the ECM is not that far off from its 12 Z run...Difference between 12 Z and 00z is cleaner phase and closing off versus sloppy phase and not closing off..In other words timing with 60 hrs to go... Its a good track...

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I have my facts right. You want a 50/50 low over se canada and a high located over Ontario and western ny.

 

50W/50N is a few hundred miles east of the Newfoundland coast and yes, that's not technically too far from SE Canada, but most people are referring to Nova Scotia when they think of SE Canada.  

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