Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I wouldn't get to caught up in tonight's model runs,even if the Euro shifts east I would still wait and see what things look like after the 12z runs tomorrow and maybe even after the 00z runs tomorrow night. By then we should have a really good idea where things will be headed with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I wouldn't get to caught up in tonight's model runs,even if the Euro shifts east I would still wait and see what things look like after the 12z runs tomorrow and maybe even after the 00z runs tomorrow night. By then we should have a really good idea where things will be headed with this system. Yea by tomorrow nights 0z suite we should have a good idea where the storm is going. Precip/dynamics/temps will not be sorted out until friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Jma is also east and has cut down on precip some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Jma is also east and has cut down on precip some. Still a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trend tonight has been to move things east ..GFS to the point where its almost no storm , except over the Atlantic..Then the NAVGEM is amped and west..is this a red flag to these other models? Snowgoose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Still a good hit yeah, but it is starting to look like a trend......i hope i'm wrong, but I'll be surprised if the euro isn't east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 yeah, but it is starting to look like a trend......i hope i'm wrong, but I'll be surprised if the euro isn't east of 12z 3 days out. We have seen shifts like this before right before big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 yeah, but it is starting to look like a trend......i hope i'm wrong, but I'll be surprised if the euro isn't east of 12zEven if it is, don't forget we have all seen the models do this. I'm not saying we're definately going to be slammed by this storm, but a shift East will not convince me were going to only be grazed. We are a hairs breath away on every model from getting a HECS, even on the models which have shifted East. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even if it is, don't forget we have all seen the models do this. I'm not saying we're definately going to be slammed by this storm, but a shift East will not convince me were going to only be grazed. We are a hairs breath away on every model from getting a HECS, even on the models which have shifted East. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer couldn't agree more. Lets see what euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 3 days out. We have seen shifts like this before right before big storms. not saying it is over, just pointing out that the trends of the night, plus the positive AO, etc, argue against the bomb the euro was depicting earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I see wagers are that the ECM comes east... I am going to say that it is going to stay the same ... Based off its ensembles...and the NAVGEM being amped and west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 not saying it is over, just pointing out that the trends of the night, plus the positive AO, etc, argue against the bomb the euro was depicting earlier The ao is negative right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The ao is negative right now. heading towards positive by the weekend, unless i am mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 heading towards positive by the weekend, unless i am mistaken CPC forecast does head towards positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro could come east and then 6z gfs will be amped and west. I don't see a consensus with this one until Friday 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There we go, the ECMWF has more of an east component after NC This run will be drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro could come east and then 6z gfs will be amped and west. I don't see a consensus with this one until Friday 12z I agree about the consensus, but i am pretty confident the euro isn't coming east to be followed by the gfs amped and west in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ecmwf no changes through 48 hours...low slightly deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not sure what to tell you, but the 00z ECMWF is west of the 12z run so far looks sloppier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 looks sloppier Probably warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The difference between the energy off of the Baja peninsula was very impressive on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Precip shield issues on the west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro ends up further east. Right over the benchmark. It's also drier on the northwest side of the storm and this run is warmer for a lot of areas. Euro still has some snow for the area. Several model runs to go. Maybe Monday is the storm instead of this one for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The difference between the energy off of the Baja peninsula was very impressive on this run.impressive in the negative sense leading to a sloppy or solution or impressive in that it consolidates itself early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z ECM gets down to 974 mbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 984 mb due south of LI at hr 66 972 just ssw of Nantucket at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 impressive in the negative sense leading to a sloppy or solution or impressive in that it consolidates itself early? Sloppy. Still shows a pretty strong low on the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 984 mb due south of LI at hr 66 972 just ssw of Nantucket at hr 72 That sounds like a favorable track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.