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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Imho, there's no way that kicker is strong enough to shunt that strong a storm east like that. I've seen this set up before with this song and dance.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

The flow is very progressive and the AO/NAO are not favorable. So it's certainly possible that the storm gets pushed east. I woul say it's more likely that it's a Euro outcome, but the GFS outcome can't be dismissed.

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The flow is very progressive and the AO/NAO are not favorable. So it's certainly possible that the storm gets pushed east. I woul say it's more likely that it's a Euro outcome, but the GFS outcome can't be dismissed.

The forecast AO+ and forecast decline in the PNA are among the reasons I suspect a moderate to perhaps borderline significant event is more likely than a major or blockbuster one.

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A sub 980 low cannot be kicked that far east by something that weak. GFS is making up its own laws of physics.

:axe:

 

Again, look at the overall pattern, including the massive upper low over the Davis Strait where we would want a block instead. There's nothing anywhere to slow the pattern down. The overall pattern is very progressive and wants to shunt out whatever develops. So this storm will have to develop and bomb very fast to make for major impacts. IMO, the people honking 12"+ from this are wearing snow goggles and wishcasting. This is much more resembling of a 4-8", maybe 5-10" storm if things go right, particularly given that warm air will be pushed north ahead of the low and the bombing out will be needed to cool the column. 

 

In this pattern, you're very lucky to be getting a real snow threat at all. 

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A sub 980 low cannot be kicked that far east by something that weak. GFS is making up its own laws of physics.

I should clarify, a storm that becomes the behemoth that the GFS is predicting with a ridge this sharp on the East Coast is not getting shunted ots by that kicker.

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer

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:axe:

 

Again, look at the overall pattern, including the massive upper low over the Davis Strait where we would want a block instead. There's nothing anywhere to slow the pattern down. The overall pattern is very progressive and wants to shunt out whatever develops. So this storm will have to develop and bomb very fast to make for major impacts. IMO, the people honking 12"+ from this are wearing snow goggles and wishcasting. This is much more resembling of a 4-8", maybe 5-10" storm if things go right, particularly given that warm air will be pushed north ahead of the low and the bombing out will be needed to cool the column. 

 

In this pattern, you're very lucky to be getting a real snow threat at all. 

Totally agree!

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00z 1-21-2015 GGEM 

 

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GGEM is not all that bad.  Sfc track is good and 500 is ok.  Problem is precip on western side.  Time to fix that in future runs.  It is not as bad as GFS.  Based on GGEM I'd EXPECT the EURO to pretty much hold steady.  We'll see in just over an hour.

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The only way that most on this forum receive a more than 4-8" type snow event is if the CCB really blossoms and the upper lows close off in a favorable spot. If we go more to this general mass of precip that shifts NE and doesn't develop the strong comma shape until it's gone, I can't see this being a major event. The warm air surge ahead of the low caused by the second low in Quebec doesn't help matters either and could really make it dicey for the immediate coast without dynamics crashing the cold air in.

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The only way that most on this forum receive a more than 4-8" type snow event is if the CCB really blossoms and the upper lows close off in a favorable spot. If we go more to this general mass of precip that shifts NE and doesn't develop the strong comma shape until it's gone, I can't see this being a major event. The warm air surge ahead of the low caused by the second low in Quebec doesn't help matters either and could really make it dicey for the immediate coast without dynamics crashing the cold air in.

Agree. We basically need a euro/navgem type evolution. We are really only three days out and all solutions from a HECS to a Scraper are all on the table. People will roll their eyes at Hecs but we were an eyelash away from one on euro at 12z, just needed a slightly earlier phase. HUGE Euro run coming up.

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