SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM will be telling. It's been pretty consistent/steadfast it's last two runs. It's usually very tough to go against the GGEM and Euro when they become/join in such close of an agreement on a particular system/setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Imho, there's no way that kicker is strong enough to shunt that strong a storm east like that. I've seen this set up before with this song and dance. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer The flow is very progressive and the AO/NAO are not favorable. So it's certainly possible that the storm gets pushed east. I woul say it's more likely that it's a Euro outcome, but the GFS outcome can't be dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_11.png no precip just outside of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Early next week storm looks better this run,. Makes sense considering it allows a bit more separation between storms/the whole baroclinic zone and where it gets pulled/stunted. An amped/close to the coast solution probably hurts/limits the development potential for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The flow is very progressive and the AO/NAO are not favorable. So it's certainly possible that the storm gets pushed east. I woul say it's more likely that it's a Euro outcome, but the GFS outcome can't be dismissed. The forecast AO+ and forecast decline in the PNA are among the reasons I suspect a moderate to perhaps borderline significant event is more likely than a major or blockbuster one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A sub 980 low cannot be kicked that far east by something that weak. GFS is making up its own laws of physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A sub 980 low cannot be kicked that far east by something that weak. GFS is making up its own laws of physics. Again, look at the overall pattern, including the massive upper low over the Davis Strait where we would want a block instead. There's nothing anywhere to slow the pattern down. The overall pattern is very progressive and wants to shunt out whatever develops. So this storm will have to develop and bomb very fast to make for major impacts. IMO, the people honking 12"+ from this are wearing snow goggles and wishcasting. This is much more resembling of a 4-8", maybe 5-10" storm if things go right, particularly given that warm air will be pushed north ahead of the low and the bombing out will be needed to cool the column. In this pattern, you're very lucky to be getting a real snow threat at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 A sub 980 low cannot be kicked that far east by something that weak. GFS is making up its own laws of physics. I should clarify, a storm that becomes the behemoth that the GFS is predicting with a ridge this sharp on the East Coast is not getting shunted ots by that kicker. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nogaps is a bit hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 huge hit again on navgem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z vs 00z GFS shows much stronger kicker. Now that we are getting closer and sampling is better this will be a big factor obviously. we continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Cmc joins the Gfs bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 00z CMC has a great SL/500 track, but the NW side of the QPF is completely gone. Likely sheared out from something in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Again, look at the overall pattern, including the massive upper low over the Davis Strait where we would want a block instead. There's nothing anywhere to slow the pattern down. The overall pattern is very progressive and wants to shunt out whatever develops. So this storm will have to develop and bomb very fast to make for major impacts. IMO, the people honking 12"+ from this are wearing snow goggles and wishcasting. This is much more resembling of a 4-8", maybe 5-10" storm if things go right, particularly given that warm air will be pushed north ahead of the low and the bombing out will be needed to cool the column. In this pattern, you're very lucky to be getting a real snow threat at all. Totally agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 00z CMC has a great SL/500 track, but the NW side of the QPF is completely gone. Likely sheared out from something in Canada It's the progressive pattern and that the low can't develop enough aloft in time to wrap around precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z 1-21-2015 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Cmc joins the Gfs bad news. not the same evolution of the storm at all on the two models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mid-Atlantic forum says UKIE looks very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 A little hard to tell but I think the UKMET was good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mid-Atlantic forum says UKIE looks very good So does the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z 1-21-2015 GGEM can.png GGEM is not all that bad. Sfc track is good and 500 is ok. Problem is precip on western side. Time to fix that in future runs. It is not as bad as GFS. Based on GGEM I'd EXPECT the EURO to pretty much hold steady. We'll see in just over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well the UKMET is probably the wettest model of the 00z suite so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Heck of a cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hear the GEFS are just outside of the benchmark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The only way that most on this forum receive a more than 4-8" type snow event is if the CCB really blossoms and the upper lows close off in a favorable spot. If we go more to this general mass of precip that shifts NE and doesn't develop the strong comma shape until it's gone, I can't see this being a major event. The warm air surge ahead of the low caused by the second low in Quebec doesn't help matters either and could really make it dicey for the immediate coast without dynamics crashing the cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM PCPN loop does show a pretty good thump of snow Saturday morning before it changes over to mix/light rain during the afternoon. Better than GFS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Let's not forget that we have 5 or 6 more model runs until gametime. Plenty of time for a better trend on American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The only way that most on this forum receive a more than 4-8" type snow event is if the CCB really blossoms and the upper lows close off in a favorable spot. If we go more to this general mass of precip that shifts NE and doesn't develop the strong comma shape until it's gone, I can't see this being a major event. The warm air surge ahead of the low caused by the second low in Quebec doesn't help matters either and could really make it dicey for the immediate coast without dynamics crashing the cold air in. Agree. We basically need a euro/navgem type evolution. We are really only three days out and all solutions from a HECS to a Scraper are all on the table. People will roll their eyes at Hecs but we were an eyelash away from one on euro at 12z, just needed a slightly earlier phase. HUGE Euro run coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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