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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1220 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
240800-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1220 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY PICK UP IN INTENSITY...FALLING MODERATELY TO
HEAVY AT TIMES. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.


MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ALERT FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AS ROADWAYS WILL
BECOME SNOW COVERED AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF
MILE AT TIMES.

$
  

 

Why put this for an area with a WWA up for 2-4.
 

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The mid-level flow has really increased over the Maryland/Delaware area during the past three hours or so and the associated 700mb winds have increased to a respectable 75 knots in some places. I bring this up because its transporting an impressive area of 700mb forcing that should move into the NYC area by 9z or so. This is the area I would look at to produce rates of up to 1" an hour as we near day break. So far I'm marginally impressed by this storm...

 

grearth%202015-01-24%2001-09-21-63.png

 

 

You can see this band taking shape over SNYJ on the new MRMS products that show areas of up to .8" in the past hour. There is also some bright banding take shape, but once the strong forcing migrates north, this area should stay mainly snow with a chance of sleet in some of the more moderate climates. 

 

ScreenHunter_116%20Jan.%2024%2001.20.png

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New HRRR brings tons of mixing in very early in the next few hours all the way into the city and NNJ.....Changed from it's previous runs. We'll see

 

JFK will probably start going over around 0845Z, LGA around 10Z...NYC/EWR may be an hour behind that, they may get lucky and be 33 and rain but right now I'd still be worried this holds as sleet or FZRAPL for awhile after daybreak at EWR/NYC/LGA.

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