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Potential Major East Coast Storm on Saturday Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Joe Cioffi: "Leaving the forecast alone. No changes. At this point if I'm too low. .then so be it."

He has NYC into western LI through central and north Jersey in the 3-6 with 6 plus in parts of northern Jersey.

I respect that. He'll Prob be right in the end

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Guest Patrick

Hi all,

Snowing to beat the band right now. All this energy, all of these dynamics, anyone see possibility of thundersnow?

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There was a big dry nose below 780mb near NYC, hence why its taken a bit of time to get going, within an hour it should be well saturated.

Just checkec down in the Philly thread you will see how once the heavier rates moved in that sleet flipped to heavy snow

Goes along with the Mesoscale disco for S plus up here in the early AM hours.

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FYI been looking at the HRRR for years now. It ignores counts sleet towards snow accumulation and in events like this highly exaggerates snow fall accumulation obviously. Ignore it.

Use it as a guide for liquid accumulation (which it has been reasonably accurate). How that ratio translates to a true snow/sleet accumulation gets much more complicated. It's not clear if the amounts on the ewall or ESRL Page are using a strict 10:1 ratio of the frozen precip accumulation or some other variation due to thermal profile.

Now liquid amounts range between 0.5-1.0" across NJ, LI, CT, and MA. Whether or not that translates to 5-10" or lesser totals will depend on the ratio of true snow vs. sleet or rain.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_alb.php

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Here in SEPA many places mixed but most are now back the heavy snow as CC shows changeover line disappeared and is now from Wilmington south

The heavy precip rates are fighting the warm air back, but it looks to be advancing more steadily up towards Philly now. The dual pol radar is the real deal, when the colors change over your house it's very accurate at sensing the changeover. I know from experience. :(

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The heavy precip rates are fighting the warm air back, but it looks to be advancing more steadily up towards Philly now. The dual pol radar is the real deal, when the colors change over your house it's very accurate at sensing the

changeover. I know from experience. :(

Warm layer is being beaten once north of Philly. NYC is fine for at least 4-5 hours.

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The heavy precip rates are fighting the warm air back, but it looks to be advancing more steadily up towards Philly now. The dual pol radar is the real deal, when the colors change over your house it's very accurate at sensing the changeover. I know from experience. :(

Yeah, we all saw it in The philly sub forum. It usually NEVER goes back, but that initial color chane showing the flip that we all experienced went bye bye and at the same time we all went back to snow. It is a fantastic product in these set ups.

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Guest Patrick

Appreciate you sharing, thank you.

Even without that.. This wall of snow came in as modeled.

There has been some thundersnow reported in Maryland. Larry Cosgrove believes some thundersnow is possible around here.

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