NEXtreme Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thank god the mets make forecasts based on their knowledge and other factors rather than just what the models are spitting out. There's a reason why they are forecasting these low amounts and they know a hell of alot more than people here lmao... We shall see... But are you including Joe Cioffi because he has higher amounts? Heck even NWS as higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Goldberg is and the others are guided by pro mets. I love it when message board amateurs insist they know more than professionals with degrees and experience. Even Nick Gregory has a fair 2-4 and he usually runs hugh just stop posting LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hey Pammy…I'm a degreed meteorologist and have been doing this for the better part of 30 years having worked at 2 of the largest private weather companies. I know the area and it's climo as well as anyone. Up until recently I've been just a lurker but having now moved into private consulting I have more time to post. We'll see by tomorrow how my forecast works out. Good luck with your lofty snowfall projections from earlier because I think they are in jeopardy. If you think the latest HRRR is going to verify on those snow totals for the Jersey shore who better find another hobby. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty easy to tell where the sleet line is at the moment http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lonnie Quinn isn't a met Everyone knows Lonnie Quinn isn't a met. But Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory are mets, and highly respected ones too. So if they're seeing something that makes them believe that amounts will be lower than what the models are showing, I wouldn't discount their opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 lmao... We shall see... But are you including Joe Cioffi because he has higher amounts? Heck even NWS as higher amounts. This! Another winter and another anti-snow post from winterwarlock. No surprise there. Winter at AmericanWx has finally arrived lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Weenies should take 3 inches right now and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 You must be new here. We know how these algo maps all account for sleet when running accumulating maps. So when you see 6 to 8 in marginal areas most know 4 is prob fair. Which is a win in Monmouth county And KNYC should see 5. Thanks, I know how it works. If NYC gets 5" i'll be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Everyone knows Lonnie Quinn isn't a met. But Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory are mets, and highly respected ones too. So if they're seeing something that makes them believe that amounts will be lower than what the models are showing, I wouldn't discount their opinion. All of these posts belong in the vendor thread. Take the rest of this discussion over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Use dual pol radar from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hey Pammy…I'm a degreed meteorologist and have been doing this for the better part of 30 years having worked at 2 of the largest private weather companies. I know the area and it's climo as well as anyone. The comment is subjective and subject to your own innate bias...it cannot be demonstrably proven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here you go kids... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN PA...CNTRL/NRN NJ...SE NYINCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND...PORTIONS OF CTCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 240448Z - 241045ZSUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT --ESPECIALLY FROM 06Z TO 09Z -- FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRLAPPALACHIANS ENEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LONG ISLANDCOAST...INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. LOCALSNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHIELD OF WIDESPREADPRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OHIOVALLEY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD WARM-ADVECTION ZONE ANALYZED ATH85. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THENIGHT...AS RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAINTAINED WELL DOWNSTREAMOF A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WATER VAPOR LOOPSDEPICT AS EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER MSVALLEY. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST 2-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLSAROUND 3.5-4.5 MB FROM SERN VA TO ERN NC...MOST LIKELY A REFLECTIONOF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE TROUGH BECOMINGJUXTAPOSED WITH A NE/SW-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE/INVERTED TROUGHANALYZED ROUGHLY 40-75 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST. SFC LOW PRESSUREIS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN FROM THIS INTERACTION AND MOVE OFFTHE COAST...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAA AND FRONTOGENETICASCENT TO ITS N. IN TURN...PRESENT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BEMAINTAINED...OR PERHAPS INCREASE...ACROSS THE DISCUSSIONAREA...PARTICULARLY AS A DEFORMATION BAND BECOMES ESTABLISHED WELLN/NW OF THE EVOLVING SFC CYCLONE.SUBJECTIVE SPATIAL INTERPOLATION BETWEEN THE 00Z IAD AND OKX RAOBSSUGGESTS NEAR- TO BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXISTING...ANDCONTINUING TO EXIST...THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE MCDAREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE GIVEN CONTINUED NOCTURNAL DIABATICCOOLING AND MODEST ADIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA PRECEDINGTHE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINSLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C FROM SERN PA TO CNTRL NJ...WET-BULB-ZERO HEIGHTSWILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 500 FT AGL -- AS AFFIRMED BY RAP FORECASTSOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...SNOW ISFORECAST TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA...WITH DEEP...NEAR-ISOTHERMAL/NEAR-0-C LAYERSFOSTERING EFFICIENT GROWTH OF SNOW AGGREGATES. AS SUCH...SNOWFALLRATES WILL LOCALLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR. SUCH RATES IN HEAVY SNOWWILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FROM CNTRL PA TO CNTRLNJ...WHILE SPREADING ENEWD TOWARD THE NEW YORK CITY AREA AND SRN NEWENGLAND THROUGH THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS.VERY LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 10Z...IT IS POSSIBLE THATSTRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-CNTRL NJ COAST -- IN RESPONSETO CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER SOUTH -- MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVELWARMING FOR PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO RAIN.HOWEVER...THIS WILL GENERALLY BE IN A CONFINED AREA NEAR THE COASTWHERE OCEANIC HEAT FLUXES ARE MAINTAINED INLAND ONLY OVER A MODESTDISPLACEMENT...COHEN.. 01/24/2015ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Heavy snow being reported down in Turnersville down in South Jersey after mixing with sleet for a short time. They are SE of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Bingo Because your thoughts matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Everyone knows Lonnie Quinn isn't a met. But Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory are mets, and highly respected ones too. So if they're seeing something that makes them believe that amounts will be lower than what the models are showing, I wouldn't discount their opinion. I think they are hedging that most of manhattan and the 5 boroughs see a lot of rain or sleet. Favored areas 20 miles north and west may see double or more than the city sees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 forget this storm, huge snows feb 1-2 on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Weenies should take 3 inches right now and run 3 to 4 is prob fair at KNYC. But the models are in love with a lot of sleet after that. There may not be many N of 78 that go to plain Rain . That's what the models look like tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Because your thought matter...not my fault he schooled you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The text of the MD is a great read, fwiw... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0039.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 forget this storm, huge snows feb 1-2 on gfs Or we can take a sure thing which looks like at least a couple inches and could be up to several inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What a mesoscale discussion huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thanks, I know how it works. If NYC gets 5" i'll be surprised. I went 4. But I think the rest is sleet. Don't know how far that warn nose at 925 pushes past 78 and for how long. It doesn't look like one of those typical change to rain all the way back to 287 and 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-24 As per this, sleet is mixing well into SE PA, and rain is roughly from ACY on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol so we can't talk about mets forecasts but every amateur can look a the Hrrr and say the area is getting 6-10 inches..okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What a mesoscale discussion huh? It is an evaluation of the local area down to very finite weather details. It discusses what to expect over short periods of time in a very specific way. http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0039.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No...what I meant was holy crap that was an amazingly well written meso discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Rjay...I can agree with that...northern suburbs could get hit nice but nyc down to central jersey and jersey shore thus just isn't their storm..3 would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol so we can't talk about mets forecasts but every amateur can look a the Hrrr and say the area is getting 6-10 inches..okay Wow simplify much? There are tons of sources beyond that contradicting conservative 1-3 inch calls. All the global and meso models, Upton, Mount Holly and professional mets who are red tagged here and on several other weather boards. Heck look at the current Meso Scale analysis (depicts current conditions at different levels of the atmosphere) and draw your own conclusions as there is plenty evidence there even contradicting 1-3 inches. All this would be better alternatives to local TV mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No...what I meant was holy crap that was an amazingly well written meso discussion Lol, my bad. I read "what is a Meso Scale analysis." Agreed very well written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Mt holly is 2-4 for cj north...thats fair..no problem with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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