weatherweather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The HRRR doesn't account for sleet in snow accums... and that large band of orange surging up is pure sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So we have some posters here arguing that a 1-3 or 2-4 is a right call, then we have the latest HRRR run showing 8-10 into NYC, lol. I give up. I think it has to be counting sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1z HRRR looks great for NYC. LI & N Jersey. The 2z is at least as good and has more snow coming through at the end of its run. I'm looking at wx bell snow maps and they are 6-8" across much of the area.....but I wouldn't doubt that the actual snow depth would be half of that if we're lucky, not just due to compaction, but mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Brought the 6 to 8 inch line down into Monmouth county and 8 to 10 into nyc and accross LI Wow! Sounds good. I think 3-6 is definitely doable down here my man, even if we mix with or change to sleet or rain. 6-8 would be icing on the cake though. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So we have some posters here arguing that a 1-3 or 2-4 is a right call, then we have the latest HRRR run showing 8-10 into NYC, lol. I give up. Every model run is increasing amounts and getting colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anybody who thinks that is happening better go have a drink and head to bed. With 22 posts to your credit...entering into this discussion with a bit of humility might be a wiser course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think it has to be counting sleet as snow. Before any changeover from snow to sleet, it is showing 3-4" for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So you're telling me HRRRs you're daddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lee showed the futurecast that shows the mixing hitting NYC around 4am. That futurecast is probably the reason why tv mets are going with just 1 to 3. Any chance it can be right? I've actually seen that futurecast be fairly accurate quite often, so it concerns me a little. Although if I was a tv met, I would have gone with 2 to 4 rather than 1 to 3. Nick Gregory actually had 2 to 4. But all the others are 1 to 3. 9z (around 4am) is when some of the warm layers might approach the South Shore and NYC area. But judging by the radar, a good amount of snow may have fallen by then. And heavier rates may try to halt the northward progress of the mixing line. It's really a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anybody who thinks that is happening better go have a drink and head to bed. You must be new here. We know how these algo maps all account for sleet when running accumulating maps. So when you see 6 to 8 in marginal areas most know 4 is prob fair. Which is a win in Monmouth county And KNYC should see 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 .GGEM has a few inches of snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Manda, first off accuweather stinks. Second off that's not sleet.use weather underground radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Manda, first off accuweather stinks. Second off that's not sleet.use weather underground radar. PHL is reporting sleet but that was expected by 04Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Brought the 6 to 8 inch line down into Monmouth county and 8 to 10 into nyc and accross LI[/quote 10 inches in Long Island? Please post map. How accurate is this model? It's below. Assume half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 She was talking about that blog if heavy just south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thank god the mets make forecasts based on their knowledge and other factors rather than just what the models are spitting out. There's a reason why they are forecasting these low amounts and they know a hell of alot more than people here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thank god the mets make forecasts based on their knowledge and other factors rather than just what the models are spitting out. There's a reason why they are forecasting these low amounts and they know a hell of alot more than people here Half the tv personalities aren't mets though....just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 PHL is reporting sleet but that was expected by 04Z. Still reports of heavy sleet w some mixed in sown in DE. So I think the 925 s may be stuck there. The real change over is when that races N. usually happens fast. This time it doesn't go much further than KNYC before it pivots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thank god the mets make forecasts based on their knowledge and other factors rather than just what the models are spitting out. There's a reason why they are forecasting these low amounts and they know a hell of alot more than people here hahhahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thank god the mets make forecasts based on their knowledge and other factors rather than just what the models are spitting out. There's a reason why they are forecasting these low amounts and they know a hell of alot more than people here I'll be sure to remember that when every single one of them that called for 1-3 busts low. Be sure to come back and face that music when 4-6 is the result. I'll go with Upton/Mt. Holly and several of the red taggers here, you go with the TV mets and we'll see who fairs better on this event and future events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thank god the mets make forecasts based on their knowledge and other factors rather than just what the models are spitting out. There's a reason why they are forecasting these low amounts and they know a hell of alot more than people here Lonnie Quinn isn't a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thank god the mets make forecasts based on their knowledge and other factors rather than just what the models are spitting out. There's a reason why they are forecasting these low amounts and they know a hell of alot more than people here Worst post of the year early candidate. Sure nick Gregory, lee Goldberg and other pro mets are well respected to say other ahem ny weather personalities know more than any red tagger here or many other posters is absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 FYI been looking at the HRRR for years now. It ignores counts sleet towards snow accumulation and in events like this highly exaggerates snow fall accumulation obviously. Ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I dont think Manda is too far off. That band is going to bring sleet. Without a doubt. Maybe not as far as NYC but for central Jersey and regions without elevation it will not be straight snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 With 22 posts to your credit...entering into this discussion with a bit of humility might be a wiser course... Hey Pammy…I'm a degreed meteorologist and have been doing this for the better part of 30 years having worked at 2 of the largest private weather companies. I know the area and it's climo as well as anyone. Up until recently I've been just a lurker but having now moved into private consulting I have more time to post. We'll see by tomorrow how my forecast works out. Good luck with your lofty snowfall projections from earlier because I think they are in jeopardy. If you think the latest HRRR is going to verify on those snow totals for the Jersey shore who better find another hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Goldberg is and the others are guided by pro mets. I love it when message board amateurs insist they know more than professionals with degrees and experience. Even Nick Gregory has a fair 2-4 and he usually runs high....and who is talking about lonnie quinn who is probably getting his stuff from a met at wcbs 880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hey Pammy…I'm a degreed meteorologist and have been doing this for the better part of 30 years having worked at 2 of the largest private weather companies. I know the area and it's climo as well as anyone. Up until recently I've been just a lurker but having now moved into private consulting I have more time to post. We'll see by tomorrow how my forecast works out. Good luck with your lofty snowfall projections from earlier because I think they are in jeopardy. If you think the latest HRRR is going to verify on those snow totals for the Jersey shore who better find another hobby. You should have a red tag. PM a mod or admin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't like your attitude our attack of Pamela manda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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