Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I meant no disrespect to you...just the model. no worriies. i have thick skin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 All I can say is that it is a good thing this event is starting under cover of darkness for NYC and immediate burbs. Temps in and around the city are going to wet bulb to about 30-31 and stay there for a while before rising SLOWLY towards and just after daybreak. It would be murder to get snow to accumulate in the city with those temps during the daytime unless it were absolutely ripping. I think 1-3 for NYC and immediate burbs is a good fcst and 3-5 or 4-6 from TTN up thru MMU to HPN. L.I. 1-3 looks reasonable. I think anybody expecting anything higher than these numbers is going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 All I can say is that it is a good thing this event is starting under cover of darkness for NYC and immediate burbs. Temps in and around the city are going to wet bulb to about 30-31 and stay there for a while before rising SLOWLY towards and just after daybreak. It would be murder to get snow to accumulate in the city with those temps during the daytime unless it were absolutely ripping. I think 1-3 for NYC and immediate burbs is a good fcst and 3-5 or 4-6 from TTN up thru MMU to HPN. L.I. 1-3 looks reasonable. I think anybody expecting anything higher than these numbers is going to be disappointed. Yep...that 28 degree angular elevation of the sun at noon is a killer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lee Goldberg firm with 1-3 for city down to central jersey...says mixing could start as early as 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 All I can say is that it is a good thing this event is starting under cover of darkness for NYC and immediate burbs. Temps in and around the city are going to wet bulb to about 30-31 and stay there for a while before rising SLOWLY towards and just after daybreak. It would be murder to get snow to accumulate in the city with those temps during the daytime unless it were absolutely ripping. I think 1-3 for NYC and immediate burbs is a good fcst and 3-5 or 4-6 from TTN up thru MMU to HPN. L.I. 1-3 looks reasonable. I think anybody expecting anything higher than these numbers is going to be disappointed. Snow will easily accumulate everywhere, maybe besides the avenues in Manhattan and main highways when it's below freezing this time of year. When it's more than light, it sticks everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yep...that 28 degree angular elevation of the sun at noon is a killer... Yep...that 28 degree angular elevation of the sun at noon is a killer... No but the heat from the city and temps only near freezing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lee Goldberg firm with 1-3 for city down to central jersey...says mixing could start as early as 4am What model are they using for that forecast? Even the low-end, relatively low-res GFS has 3" for the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What model are they using for that forecast? Even the low-end, relatively low-res GFS has 3" for the NYC metro area. Even Meteorologist Joe Cioffi doesn't believe that. He's happy he increased his snow totals today and believes he will at least hit his numbers but he's starting to get worried about being a bit low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 11PM TEB: 37 / 30 (snow) NYC: 37 / 30 EWR: 35 / 27 LGA: 37 / 30 JFK: 37 / 27 ISP: 36 / 28 New Brunswick: 33 / 29 (snow) TTN: 32 / 29 (snow) PHL: 32 /32 (snow) ACY: 35 / 33 (rain / mix) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lee Goldberg firm with 1-3 for city down to central jersey...says mixing could start as early as 4am What model is he hugging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 With the weekend the forecast is not as important as a weekday rush again may be big disparity between city and nearby north and west burbs with a little elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What model are they using for that forecast? Even the low-end, relatively low-res GFS has 3" for the NYC metro area. Kind of wondering that myself. Seems that all the TV mets are playing it relatively safe. I think a 2-4 would have been a better TV call for NYC (though we very well could get more based on recent trends). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thundersnow and sleet being reported in Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I've always found channel 7 snow amounts low over the years. And they always claim they were right on even if there not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lee Goldberg firm with 1-3 for city down to central jersey...says mixing could start as early as 4am You would think after the 0z runs, we would of been upgraded to warning status. I guess they will wait till morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1z HRRR looks great for NYC. LI & N Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just noticed this.. going to be so close, but this surge is ugly. Cools dramatically after.. sign is there for some heavy banding and frontogenesis in and around the city (though nyc is warm on 925h after 9z). Would not shock me to see heavy snow NW NJ.. 30-40 miles west of NYC. 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 You would think after the 0z runs, we would of been upgraded to warning status. I guess they will wait till morning. You don't have to worry about that...when the storm has 30 minutes of snow left to it...Winter Storm Warnings will be issued! It has only happened countless times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lee showed the futurecast that shows the mixing hitting NYC around 4am. That futurecast is probably the reason why tv mets are going with just 1 to 3. Any chance it can be right? I've actually seen that futurecast be fairly accurate quite often, so it concerns me a little. Although if I was a tv met, I would have gone with 2 to 4 rather than 1 to 3. Nick Gregory actually had 2 to 4. But all the others are 1 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What model are they using for that forecast? Even the low-end, relatively low-res GFS has 3" for the NYC metro area. Mr. G had basically the same thing as Lee Goldberg, 1-3 inches in the city, 2-4 north and west, and that 4-7" swath from NW Jersey to the mid hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Because models start warming upper levels around 09z which is 4am. 1-3" is fine for NYC... Nick has 2-4" ,,, IMO this could be something like 1.5" NYC and 2-3.5" in the other boroughs, with BX highest. Lee showed the futurecast that shows the mixing hitting NYC around 4am. That futurecast is probably the reason why tv mets are going with just 1 to 3. Any chance it can be right? I've actually seen that futurecast be fairly accurate quite often, so it concerns me a little. Although if I was a tv met, I would have gone with 2 to 4 rather than 1 to 3. Nick Gregory actually had 2 to 4. but all the others are 1 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1z HRRR looks great for NYC. LI & N Jersey. Brought the 6 to 8 inch line down into Monmouth county and 8 to 10 into nyc and accross LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Post the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Watch that bright banding from DOV to ACY that is likely the transition to sleet. Will be interesting to watch the progression of that over the next several hours. Saw a prior post that TV Met said could be mix by 4am for city, that is very possible in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Brought the 6 to 8 inch line down into Monmouth county and 8 to 10 into nyc and accross LI[/quote 10 inches in Long Island? Please post map. How accurate is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So we have some posters here arguing that a 1-3 or 2-4 is a right call, then we have the latest HRRR run showing 8-10 into NYC, lol. I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 You don't have to worry about that...when the storm has 30 minutes of snow left to it...Winter Storm Warnings will be issued! It has only happened countless times before. You and I know what the real deal is. Ever since that March 2001 epic bust, tv mets have played conservative with every storm since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Brought the 6 to 8 inch line down into Monmouth county and 8 to 10 into nyc and accross LI Anybody who thinks that is happening better go have a drink and head to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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