jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I mean I don't know if I'm misreading the upper air charts...but the NAM progs seem to have the 850 Low pass south of Long Island off the central NJ coast, no? On the soundings for JFK on the 0z NAM: Date: 9 hour Eta valid 9Z SAT 24 JAN 15 Station: 40.65,-73.78 Latitude: 40.65 Longitude: -73.78 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1008 7 0.2 -0.0 98 0.2 0.1 45 5 272.8 273.4 272.9 283.0 3.78 1 1000 67 -0.1 58 8 273.0 2 950 477 -0.8 -1.3 97 0.4 -1.0 100 6 276.3 277.0 274.8 286.4 3.67 3 900 910 -0.2 -0.5 98 0.3 -0.3 171 11 281.3 282.0 278.0 292.7 4.10 4 850 1368 -0.3 -0.6 98 0.3 -0.5 250 11 285.8 286.5 280.4 298.0 4.29 5 800 1852 -1.2 -1.4 98 0.3 -1.3 192 27 289.9 290.7 282.3 302.4 4.31 6 750 2366 -2.6 -2.8 98 0.3 -2.7 190 40 293.8 294.5 283.8 306.0 4.14 Winds from 950mb and above are coming from a southerly component, so there's WAA from that level and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Flakes in East Windsor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Its an open 850 low now vs a closed and stronger one on the models yesterday...here is the 12Z NAM...one of the Mets in the SNE forum joked this was almost transitioning to a southwest flow event Could you offer me a fast lecture on that stuff 'cause I'm not an authority on how that discrepancy tends to influence both temperature & precip in this area...and I would like to better comprehend it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 10PM temps TEB: 36 NYC: 37 EWR: 36 LGA: 37 JFK: 37 New Brunswick: 34 TTN: 34 PHL: 34 (snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Could you offer me a fast lecture on that stuff 'cause I'm not an authority on how that discrepancy tends to influence both temperature & precip in this area...and I would like to better comprehend it. Weak 850 low better in a marginal event if you're going to be near or just west of it, a stronger 850 low will more likely flood you with warm air if you're near or just west of it since it'll have stronger flow around its east side wrapping the warm air back around to the west somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The only bad thing I see so far is that the obs in SE PA and SWRN NJ don't seem to have VIS correlating well with the radar echoes, its possible that there is a layer somewhere not saturated right away or that their thermals in the mid layers down there are not as good, we'll see what happens as it gets up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 SREF plumes, now along with the RAP/HRRR as well as the NAM show 5-7" of snowfall in and around NYC as well as on LI. I've seen the HRRR overdo it many times though only to scale back the amounts in the runs that follow. We will see if that happens this time, or if they stick to these amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nick Gregory just said a lot of the new data tonight is indicating there will be more sleet with this system. Hard to believe NYC will get 6 inches with the amount of mixing that's expected. 2 to 4 seems more reasonable which is what Nick's map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This system definitely looks like one that can overperform... the NAM, HRRR, and SREF all have 5+ of SN for NYC... also, the backend CCB may offer some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Observation thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45478-january-23-24-2015-storm-observations/ Flakes in East Windsor! Latest radar t 10PM temps TEB: 36 NYC: 37 EWR: 36 LGA: 37 JFK: 37 New Brunswick: 34 TTN: 34 PHL: 34 (snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nick Gregory just said a lot of the new data tonight is indicating there will be more sleet with this system. Hard to believe NYC will get 6 inches with the amount of mixing that's expected. 2 to 4 seems more reasonable which is what Nick's map shows. Think this is a decent call but theres just a few uncertanties I'm still mixed about. How much precip falls in this front end thump? Surface looks to stay fine until low pushes near us and the 850-900 area warms. When does this happen? 8 am? If so, when do we hit our dry slot? Having these heavy echos crawl up towards us, do we areas change from SN+ to Sleet with such heavy areas of precip? If so, do they ever change back to just snow? Etc. Really a tough one to nail down. There is no clear cut consensus from anything that we can infer at the moment. Upton/Mt Holly going cautiously on the lower side of things, most mets are too, despite some of the models coming out within the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 12Z RGEM is doing what has occurred most of the year, here is its 15 hour forecast valid now...notice how parts of the orange area is actually snow on the obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 00z RGEM looks a lot like all of the snowier models now.....similar to its last run but now with 5"+ amounts right into the NY metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Shocking cutoff on the 0z Nam...6 to 8 inches N. Jersey...NYC & L.I....only an inch or two from Sandy Hook, NJ south...shades of the winter of 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM is quite borderline for NYC in terms of seeing mostly snow or a mix. At 9z, all layers at JFK are just below freezing, but a warm layer at 750-800 mb looks to move in soon after, meaning at least sleet. At Islip, the 850mb temp is literally 0.0 at 9z (every other layer below freezing). It'll be very interesting to see how the R/S line advances overnight. Maybe it can be held off if precip is heavy enough. Central Park looks slightly colder than these but the 750mb warm layer breaks through after 9z. The front part of the storm looks to be done by or just after 12z. Yea the warm nose between 850-700 hPa is showing up on the HRRR as well by 1600 UTC. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_snd_jfk.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If we get 5-6 inches from this. We can call it a miracle after all the meltdowns yesterday. Hopefully this models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 00z RGEM looks a lot like all of the snowier models now.....similar to its last run but now with 5"+ amounts right into the NY metro area It initialized too warm as well, has mixed precip or rain in places that are snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Its 36 in the metro area ( I realize cooling will take us down to near freezing but like being in upper 20s to give us some extra time on front end), not a good strting point and would support NAM's warm start. Im hoping for a healthy CCB/back end scenario. Not buying the RAP scenario. the good news is the 850 freezing is around AC and if it moves slowly enough we should be good till sun rise. Ill take 2-4 front end and 2-3 back end and smile all the way to the bank. That will wet bulb to low 30s no problem Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Weak 850 low better in a marginal event if you're going to be near or just west of it, a stronger 850 low will more likely flood you with warm air if you're near or just west of it since it'll have stronger flow around its east side wrapping the warm air back around to the west somewhat. Thanks. One more question...the CMC-HRDPS is the GEM-LAM, correct? The GEM-LAM is the best snowfall predictor of all time in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That's an advance in the snow accums south from the last couple of runs also. Encouraging. The dual pol radar will be interesting to watch in the predawn hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 looks like the gfs is coming in west & wet. little warm from prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 looks like the gfs is coming in west & wet. little warm from prior runs. GFS continues to be out it's range Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 looks like the gfs is coming in west & wet. little warm from prior runs. The GFS in a last minute mesoscale situation...I would only use it if I were running low on Scots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The GFS in a last minute mesoscale situation...I would only use it if I were running low on Scots. hey now. looks like warning snows into central pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 hey now. looks like warning snows into central pa I meant no disrespect to you...just the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 hey now. looks like warning snows into central pa Funny to see that because the RGEM's been slicing totals for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 gfs not much change on qpf. decent snow in most area, if you stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Funny to see that because the RGEM's been slicing totals for us... valley locations such as wilkes barre look to be around 4 inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That's an advance in the snow accums south from the last couple of runs also. Encouraging. The dual pol radar will be interesting to watch in the predawn hours. I want to kiss this photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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