WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So.....the NAM shows a dumping just like the latest RAP/HRRR of 6" in and around (especially just NW) the NYC area, with mostly frozen. However, it seems to be lacking all of the precip further inland NW of the low for much of anything after the front end dump. Regardless, this is about the best NAM run so far for NNJ/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Interesting,at least to me it i's but winds are west right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wait the precipitation ends 7 am or dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Interesting,at least to me it i's but winds are west right now That was expected, W-SW flow should go briefly ESE than E then NNE by late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wow NAM at HR 9 is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 storm total at 24 hrs. solid 6-10 inches from high point to ground zero mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like just some lighter snow on the back side, but it really minimizes mixing for most, and the front end is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Let's just hope and pray that every single model from now to End of storm ends up being better and colder our something. Low chances EVERYONE gets only snow but then again could end up surprises lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Union county gets REkt just before changeover to mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 4k NAM has a big dry slot before the backend comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wouldn't big dry slot lead to a temp increase? jest thinking out loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Let's just hope and pray that every single model from now to End of storm ends up being better and colder our something. Low chances EVERYONE gets only snow but then again could end up surprises lol Lol we all wish, doesnt matter what the models say at this point. Nowcast and predict from there. Some of the higher res short term models are worth looking at, but were a few hours from the storm and the gfs and euro wont tell us much of anything from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Upton updated it discussion and all but didn't change there's snow maps .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wouldn't big dry slot lead to a temp increase? jest thinking out loud Depends where the winds are blowing from. North to northeast its still snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The HRRR has been getting progressively colder each run in the lower levels and now has Bergen county staying all snow for the entire run. If the warm nose between 900-800mb doesn't pan out and the HRRR is correct, then I would expect totals to range 5-8" in this area. Its also nice to see that some of the heaviest snow should stick around in time for daybreak tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM is quite borderline for NYC in terms of seeing mostly snow or a mix. At 9z, all layers at JFK are just below freezing, but a warm layer at 750-800 mb looks to move in soon after, meaning at least sleet. At Islip, the 850mb temp is literally 0.0 at 9z (every other layer below freezing). It'll be very interesting to see how the R/S line advances overnight. Maybe it can be held off if precip is heavy enough. Central Park looks slightly colder than these but the 750mb warm layer breaks through after 9z. The front part of the storm looks to be done by or just after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Could be an ice storm setup for long island....possibly id think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I mean just common sense here...you have a sub 990 mb surface Low move from the vicinity of Hatteras to at least 150 miles to the east of Montauk (if the NAM placement is right) at the end of January... seriously...how much warm air can be advected in such a situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hopefully we don't dry slot too much, that would really limit the duration of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM is quite borderline for NYC in terms of seeing mostly snow or a mix. At 9z, all layers at JFK are just below freezing, but a warm layer at 750-800 mb looks to move in soon after, meaning at least sleet. At Islip, the 850mb temp is literally 0.0 at 9z (every other layer below freezing). It'll be very interesting to see how the R/S line advances overnight. Maybe it can be held off if precip is heavy enough. Central Park looks slightly colder than these but the 750mb warm layer breaks through after 9z. The front part of the storm looks to be done by or just after 12z. Should be another good night to sit back and fire up this radar. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0C-0-6# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Upton says snow in NYC metro 10-11 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Latest radar t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I mean just common sense here...you have a sub 990 mb surface Low move from the vicinity of Hatteras to at least 150 miles to the east of Montauk (if the NAM placement is right) at the end of January... seriously...how much warm air can be advected in such a situation? The mid levels will warm for sure with the 850 low tracking nearby, but the surface I don't know...how are we going to warm up on a NNE wind at this time of year? I've been baffled for days as to how the coast gets above 32 once they wet bulb down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The mid levels will warm for sure with the 850 low tracking nearby, but the surface I don't know...how are we going to warm up on a NNE wind at this time of year? I've been baffled for days as to how the coast gets above 32 once they wet bulb down. I remember you being concerned about FZR well before anything was picked up with the models. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 From Albany's AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 930 PM EST...USAF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PERFORMED SEVERAL DROPSONDES OFF THESOUTHEAST CONUS THIS EVENING THAT WILL BENEFIT THE 00Z GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The mid levels will warm for sure with the 850 low tracking nearby, but the surface I don't know...how are we going to warm up on a NNE wind at this time of year? I've been baffled for days as to how the coast gets above 32 once they wet bulb down. I mean I don't know if I'm misreading the upper air charts...but the NAM progs seem to have the 850 Low pass south of Long Island off the central NJ coast, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's definitely not a bad thing that the short range models are trending colder with each run....totals across NNJ/NYC have gotten better, from 4-5 inches all the way to 6-7 inches on the latest one. We can consider that a real treat if anything like that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I mean I don't know if I'm misreading the upper air charts...but the NAM progs seem to have the 850 Low pass south of Long Island off the central NJ coast, no? Its an open 850 low now vs a closed and stronger one on the models yesterday...here is the 12Z NAM...one of the Mets in the SNE forum joked this was almost transitioning to a southwest flow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's definitely not a bad thing that the short range models are trending colder with each run....totals across NNJ/NYC have gotten better, from 4-5 inches all the way to 6-7 inches on the latest one. We can consider that a real treat if anything like that happens If anyone bitches about getting 5 or 6 inches. send them to cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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