allgame830 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That means absolutely nothing, I assure you. Temperatures never go down at night as clouds roll in and a storm approaches. Very much agreed... Temps will drop quickly once the snow starts to fall and with the DP in the low 20's we should all be able to get into the mid to upper 20's overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Temp actually rose here, it's currently 33, it was 30 about two hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hello Snowgoose, Snowing in south NJ (Clementon) - near philly based off of webcams... no way it is going to take 3.5 hours to reach north jersey...? If its ahead of schedule that means more heavy stuff falls before sunrise meaning colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yea once it starts to precipitate the temperature will drop. Im fine with 35 in Brooklyn Dewpoints are low enough that temps should wetbulb down below freezing when the snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I don't think there is much doubt that after 2:30 AM or so...snow is going to start to come down pretty heavily in the area...likely 1 to 2 inches per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Would be nice to finally plow some snow...Should meet the 2 inch criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Having reviewed some of the latest data...and factoring in climatological normals...the projected track of the cyclone...and a few other items...I think many parts of Long Island are looking at a total snowfall in the 5 to 10 inch range...with about 3 to 6 inches before any changeover...and another 2 to 4 inches during the afternoon hours...assuming a change back to accumulating snow. It is late January...a very favorable time of the year...the water is cold...the track is fairly favorable...not too much warm air is going to be advected onshore or even aloft...I don't see it getting too much warmer than maybe 1 C at 850 mb...and that is within the normal error range of most of these models. TWT. While I believe you to be one of the most knowledgeable posters vis a vis climatology, I have to respectfully disagree. Bold call, though, and certainly within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 While I believe you to be one of the most knowledgeable posters vis a vis climatology, I have to respectfully disagree. Bold call, though, and certainly within the realm of possibility. Like everybody else...you take an educated guess...you win some...you lose some...but you throw yourself out there and you never be afraid to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 HRRR even slower to change over from snow to a mix. Now gives the NYC area close to 6" before any changeover with similar amounts in NNJ and across much of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 00z HRRR is interesting as the CCB begins to come into range. It's looking really solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 850s very cold in our area -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 HRRR even slower to change over from snow to a mix. Now gives the NYC area close to 6" before any changeover with similar amounts in NNJ and across much of LI that would snarl traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That 0z RAP looks pretty cold @ 850 through noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This storm may have the chance to surprise alot of people in a good way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 00z HRRR is interesting as the CCB begins to come into range. It's looking really solid. Extrapolated, it looks to me like the perfect run for many of us (especially northern parts of the city and around where you are and extreme NENJ)....only problem is that since I don't think it could get too much better than that....we know what happens in subsequent runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not that anyone cares, but whatever happens here in the next 24hrs will determine what happens in Eastern MN and the lakes region with respect to the clipper, and how it transitions to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Really the only run of the NAM that means squat coming up now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looking good on the upper upper west side. Long day for me. Still think the immediate south shore dumps then dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Really the only run of the NAM that means squat coming up now... Bad start..NAM looked very warm at Hour 6 / 1:00 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Bad start..NAM looked very warm at Hour 6 / 1:00 AM. Its 36 in the metro area ( I realize cooling will take us down to near freezing but like being in upper 20s to give us some extra time on front end), not a good strting point and would support NAM's warm start. Im hoping for a healthy CCB/back end scenario. Not buying the RAP scenario. the good news is the 850 freezing is around AC and if it moves slowly enough we should be good till sun rise. Ill take 2-4 front end and 2-3 back end and smile all the way to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Bad start..NAM looked very warm at Hour 6 / 1:00 AM.Yeah I notice that....mix line almost all the way to NYC already. Last run had it way down into NJUPDATE : actually an excellent run of the NAM.....not too far off from the latest HRRR run with close to 6" in and around NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 "Evap cooling" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Its 36 in the metro area, not a good strting point and would support NAM's warm start. Im hoping for a healthy CCB/back end scenario. Not buying the RAP scenario. Those temps will drop when it starts to precipitate. The dewpoint here in Brooklyn its 24 i think we will get down to 31 with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yeah I notice that....mix line almost all the way to NYC already. Last run had it way down into NJ Through 12 hrs all snow according to nam soundings for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 0 z nam sim radar is impressive through 9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like the rain snow line actually backs down, snow at NYC hr 9, some healthy precip along Long Island, practically the whole forum. Exception of southern areas who mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's already snowing in certain spots in southern NJ FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is one wet, energetic little system with a sub tropical connection...temperatures @850 mb exceed 10 C as close as the Delmarva Penninsula which tells me some places are probably looking at 2.00 inches L.E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Folks, read a sounding. This is a great run NYC. On the 18z at 7am, the warm layer at 750mb was well above 1... Now it's 0.5... That and the precip pretty much shuts off after 7am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Folks, read a sounding. This is a great run NYC. On the 18z at 7am, the warm layer at 750mb was well above 1... Now it's 0.5... That and the precip pretty much shuts off after 7am... much colder run..confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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