robPAwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's 37 degrees atm. Precip is moving in soon, maybe a hour or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 And finally, I ask but I likely well regret asking Suffolk county lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Probably 4 to 8 inches...least in Staten Island...where the warming aloft will intrude first...and that afternoon band appears to be focused a bit to the east...so they have two things going against them. I think staten does better, anything for newark etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No... Was referring to Pamela thinking, if what she says does materialize then they bust.NYC weather people all have anywhere from 0-5 inches at most, for NYC areas east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Probably 6 to 12 inches over western Passaic / eastern Sussex Counties...certainly no changeover to liquid...maybe a brief period of sleet at the height of the storm. So Pamela you really think that the WAA will not be a player at all?? I hope you are right because then this storm has the potential to double the current forecast amounts. Of course this is all speculation at this point but it would certainly make it interesting. In my past experiences models usually are too fast with the WAA and a lot of times the pecip comes in faster than anticipated which shuts it off before it warms. I will tell you that the radar definitely does look robust. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I agree with some of what u said Pamela, but I can't see Long Island doing better then staten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I mean this sort of thing is not the easiest forecast...it would likely be warmest aloft when precip rates are at their heaviest. Consequently, if the models are off by as little as 1 C at a particular location and very heavy precip is underway at that juncture in time...you can easily throw your forecast off by 3 inches of snow being off for just one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So Pamela you really think that the WAA will not be a player at all?? I hope you are right because then this storm has the potential to double the current forecast amounts. Of course this is all speculation at this point but it would certainly make it interesting. In my past experiences models usually are too fast with the WAA and a lot of times the pecip comes in faster than anticipated which shuts it off before it warms. I will tell you that the radar definitely does look robust. Thoughts? Definitely is a factor...very much the key factor in the equation....were warming aloft absent from the equation...we would likely be discussing a 12 - 18 inch major snowstorm throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Radar already starting to pick up over Ocean Philly and long island,though nothing hitting ground.temps at 30℉ Sorry typos cause I'm on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No... I always go with the opposite of what you think Kind of like what I used to do with Noreaster27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So Pamela you really think that the WAA will not be a player at all?? I hope you are right because then this storm has the potential to double the current forecast amounts. Of course this is all speculation at this point but it would certainly make it interesting. In my past experiences models usually are too fast with the WAA and a lot of times the pecip comes in faster than anticipated which shuts it off before it warms. I will tell you that the radar definitely does look robust. Thoughts? That's certainly a possibility but with no arctic airmass in place it's a really tough call. I do think the media outlets are under-forecasting amounts. Oh yea I'm not Pamela lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 there will hardly be virga. humidity is at 70% dew is 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This precipitation looks to start even sooner then midnight I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Precipitation should begin in the metro region over the next 1-2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Precipitation should begin in the metro region over the next 1-2 hours. How will that affect precip type? Will it come in before WAA has commenced, or will it come in with the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If precipitation starts before midnight a t a really heavy clip,and lasts to at least say 9 am,with temperatures at or slightly below freezing,I can see people busting to low..possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think it'll still be midnight to 1am or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think it'll still be midnight to 1am or so Probably edge into Staten Island first...between 11 PM & midnight...later as one heads NE bound. This will not be one of those situations where it takes a long time for the atmosphere to moisten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Probably edge into Staten Island first...between 11 PM & midnight...later as one heads NE bound. This will not be one of those situations where it takes a long time for the atmosphere to moisten up.Pam, great thoughts. I'm not as worried about the warm layer until about 6 hrs of precip has fallen. Looks like you are thinking the same? I'm not sold on a CCB (at least for the city). I think that the front end will produce 3-4 at KNYC and then it's sleet/slop/dry slot for 4-5 hrs...ending with a sloppy inch or two. I think 5" total (not depth) is a good call for Central Park.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Precipitation should begin in the metro region over the next 1-2 hours. no reports in the philly area yet. Hoping around 11 PM in my area or I will be in bed. Going to try to see the 1st flakes prior to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 RAP (though out of its more comfy range) is supporting a 4-6" front end dump for the NENJ/NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Someone referenced a similar event last year, that event although it came in around the same time of night had a strong high to the north and much stronger warm advection in the mid levels, most places flipped to sleet or freezing rain quickly and many started as it and went to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Someone referenced a similar event last year, that event although it came in around the same time of night had a strong high to the north and much stronger warm advection in the mid levels, most places flipped to sleet or freezing rain quickly and many started as it and went to snow My main concern here is the potential for this to turn into a heavy sleet fest for many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pam, great thoughts. I'm not as worried about the warm layer until about 6 hrs of precip has fallen. Looks like you are thinking the same? I'm not sold on a CCB (at least for the city). I think that the front end will produce 3-4 at KNYC and then it's sleet/slop/dry slot for 4-5 hrs...ending with a sloppy inch or two. I think 5" total (not depth) is a good call for Central Park. Sent from my iPhone I mean I would think much of the NYC area should be mostly all snow from midnight until 6AM at least...thereafter the problem lies...now obviously...as the cyclone takes shape off the Virginia Capes this evening...the winds aloft should blow out of the south and begin to transport warm air at higher levels northbound. However...eventually that surface cyclone is going to edge to the east of the longitude of NYC as it heads for the benchmark...this will cause the winds aloft to ever so slowly back around and necessitate a halt to the northward progression of the 0 C isotherm at higher levels...the devil is in the timing & the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Tonight's RGEM will be telling. It's been trending colder with each run today. Another tick colder, and we would have warning criteria snows in the city, taken verbatim of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Surface Temperatures are not falling at all in western Nassau it's holding at 35 for the last couple of hours. Can't see this being a good thing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Surface Temperatures are not falling at all in western Nassau it's holding at 35 for the last couple of hours. Can't see this being a good thing!!! That means absolutely nothing, I assure you. Temperatures never go down at night as clouds roll in and a storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That means absolutely nothing, I assure you. Temperatures never go down at night as clouds roll in and a storm approaches. Yea once it starts to precipitate the temperature will drop. Im fine with 35 in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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